Westgate Super Contest Top 11 Guy's Plays

418-228

IND - 6

CLV - 6

WAS - 4

TB - 4

LV - 4

BUF - 3

KC - 3

PHL - 2

JAX - 2

NYJ - 2

MIA - 2

CAR - 2

NYG - 2

SEA - 2

GB - 2

DET - 2

BLT - 1

NO - 1

TN - 1

ATL - 1

LAC - 1

PIT - 1

Hey can you explain this a bit more - what does the ranking system mean?

@Raiders22

It is just the number of times each team was selected ATS by one of the top 11 guy's in the contest

@BenSpanklin

 https://www.thespread.com/nfl-super-contest-picks-from-the-las-vegas-hilton/

This is one link to it.

Just keep in mind that they have to bet against an early line in the contest and it is listed at the top.

Wow, not one pick for Chicago or Dallas. 

Not too surprising.  Both were a bit of a public play.  Plus some of these guys do not like to play the early games as much. 

@Raiders22

 What the best way to play these? 

@Shortporch

 No clue.  Maybe take a consensus or follow top 2-3 guys.

Or just use it as info to back up what you like or make you second-guess your play if they disagree.

I just list it because it is far better to look at the top guys that are competing for the money as opposed to the overall picks from the whole contest when most guys are eliminated from the money now.

@Raiders22

 Is it the westgate or Circa millions where the consensus picks have been awful?

@Raiders22

@brn2loslive2win

Not the top guys -- just because the leaders are all hitting at a higher rate than the average guys are.  But the consensus picks are not nearly as good as the leaders obviously.

@Raiders22

 Interesting to see Indy, Washington, and Tampa. I’d imagine it’s TB -2.5?

@brn2loslive2win

 Yes it is -2.5   

Yes, I love WAS in this spot. But I have HOU at +4.5. Could go either way with TB at -2.5  But like AZ at +3.5

@Raiders22

 Indy is crazy to me just because of the injury to Jones. I have no involvement because I have futures on Houston. At 4.5 I would have to take Houston. Like the hook with AZ with Harrison back. They’re just a tough team that is desperately trying to win a game. The defense isn’t playing well but Jacoby is laying it all on the line for his guys. Washington to me is…wild. Please if you get a chance shed some light on this one. Looks like sharp money is keeping this line sub 7. I’d imagine the public is going to have Denver every possible way.

@brn2loslive2win

Not to make it too detailed or complicated:

Mariotta has played decent and I do not think is that big of a drop-off from Daniels, especially when he is at home.

WAS at home Pass PE is .209 and away is .130

WAS at home Rush PE is .108 and away is .058

WAS at home Pass Rush PS is .149 and away is .057

DEN at home Rush PE is .099 and away is .042

Nix is consistent but not overwhelming at home and away.

Mariotta has been better at home.

ANY/A for Nix at home is 5.9 and away is 5.9

ANY/A for Mariotta at home is 9.9 and away is 4.5

I think WAS can play looser and DEN after two division games that they won may be valued at the high of the season.

So, if WAS can establish any sort of run to help Mariotta I think he can keep it somewhat close.

If WAS can get pressure on Nix I think it will help a lot.

Nix without pressure has ANY/A of 7.2 but with pressure his ANY/A is 3.1

I think all of this points to selling DEN at season high and buying WAS at season low.

Of course, they are high and low for a reason and it could continue.

@Raiders22

 The top 10, getting rammed.  I have the individual picks.

@cdog8043

 Yes. They. Are.