WEEK 9 MNF - an upHill climb for Dak Presscot

Underdogs ATS are 9-4 (69%) this Week 9. Favorites are 8-5 SU (61%) Is this another one of those underdog cover week?

• The Cowboys hold the all-time series edge over the Cardinals: Dallas has 56 wins to Arizona’s 35 in 92 total meetings.

• Looking at more recent meetings, the Cardinals have won 3 out of the last 4 versus Dallas.

• The Cowboys are very strong when playing at home against the Cardinals: home win rate vs ARI is about 77%.

• In their last 10 matchups, Dallas has only 3 wins against Arizona. So despite their overall historical dominance, the recent trend has favored the Cardinals.
• A specific game highlight: In the 2023 matchup, Arizona rushed for 222 yards vs Dallas, averaging 7.4?yards per carry.

For the Head Official Adrian Hill

• in the games Hill has worked at home as the referee: Home teams went 1-6 straight up, and 1-6 ATS (against the spread). The average home margin was –7.71 points (i.e., home teams lost by ~7.7?points on average).

• That same source breaks down “Home Favorite” games under Hill: Home favorites were 0-4 ATS when he was behind the whistle.

• Hill’s “Home Record (ATS)” is 49 wins vs 51 losses.

• Caveat, the last 3 Cowboys game when Adrian Hill is the head official the cowboys won straight up 3-0.

Since Week 1 underdogs have gone 5-7 ATS (42%) and the last underdog that covered that spread was still in week 6. I say the underdogs are due!!!

I have been following this line since last week, this opened at 3.5 reached to 4.0 and now down to 2.5 on some books. Last 5 games of the cardinals have lost to a total of 13 pts, that is an average of -2.6pts per game. They just came off from their bye week, I think they have things figured up like a fresh start. Dallas on the other hand are on a see saw win loss charade since their overtime game against the packers. They are approaching bye week with 3-4-1 (should have been 4-4 imo) record and a wild guess is that they are losing this game straight up. 

Lets go and lock this early! 

Arizona Cardinal +3.5 -112 on DK
Arizona Cardinals ML +150 on DK
Trey Mcbride Anytime TD
Marvin Harrison Jr First TD

Good luck! 

I am also look at rushing yard props. Dallas is known to have one of the worst rushing defense in the league this season. 

Jacoby Brissett o14.5 -115 seems a lock. He has avaraged 22.5 yards last 2 games he started. 

n now spead is -3.5 ffrom .ines  -2.5 tool vard om ml +130  for 30$ pays out alnost 60$

Jacoby Brissett o270.5 Pass+Rush Yards -109 on DK (avg rush yards 22.5, avg pass yards 299.5 vs Dallas allows 258.6 yards/g and 146 rush yards/g)

jacoby rushing prop seems too good to be true 

Without bias, Dallas are 5-0 when spreads are less than 3.0 this season and 14-4 ATS when coming off a loss. 

@usikbasterd

 I think they dont have enough data yet for his average rush yards this year. He only started 2 games this year and played 5 games in total. Last year he averaged 7.8yards/game in 8 games. This year since he is starting he is averaging 22.5y.

Cardinals are 7-1 ATS vs Dallas since 2008.

Cardinals 11-1 ATS vs NFC East since 2019.

@Way2Good

 Underdogs went 8-5

@Way2Good