Week 4 : Anchor Teasers

Using as my anchors.

1. LAR +3 -125

2. BAL/KC under 55 -125

Satellites later.

I have a 3rd anchor this week.

3. TENN +13.5 -125  (generated from this query)

season>=2016 and AD and line

I have a 3rd anchor this week.

3. TENN +13.5 -125  (generated from this query)

season>=2016 and AD and line<oA(margin)-tA(margin) and p:HL and week<7 and op:AL and 9<line<2......23-1

Satellites:

1. HOU pk

2. NO +23.5

3. ATL over 38.5

4. GB over 40.5

5. HOU over 33

6. DEN -1

7. IND +10

8. WAS +4

9. LAC over 37

10. IND over 42

11. ARZ +5.5

12. SF +3

13. MIA +4

14. NE +1

15. CHI +7.5

16. SEA +7.5

17. BUF -10

18. DET -2

19. DEN over 37

20. GB pk

Think your line is  back asswards Buddy (9>line>2)

season>=2016 and AD and line

season>=2016 and AD and line

@jowchoo

 BAL/KC under 55 is good!

first half plays:

1. ARZ pk

2. SF -1.5

3. MIA -1

4. NE -3

5. CHI pk

6. LAR -2.5

21. CLEV +16

22. CINC +14

23. BUFF over 41

24. DET over 38

25. INDY under 56

26. HOU under 45

7. DEN -3.5

8. LAC -3.5

27. WASH under 50

28. LAC pk

29. ATL +4.5

30. LV +5.5

31. PITT over 34

This is the thing I don't get about the use of anchors. You can have a great week in terms of the number of plays that win and lose a bunch of money if the anchors don't come through. By my count this was anchors 1-2, but satellites 22-8, so 70 percent winners, but you went 0-30 and 0-30 on the two anchors that lost. I think you said last year that you just have to choose anchors better when you had the rare losing week, but I'm still not certain the better strategy isn't to pair (or even triple) plays without anchors.

@jowchoo

 I’m curious to know if this method is purely systematic or if you ever have to make a gut decision. I have seen this system be extremely successful so I don’t have any doubt that you know what you’re doing, but did the Titans anchor ever make you think that you just had to find something better? To tie so many bets to the possibly worst team in the league must be stressful. Some of the satellite plays seemed like they could have been a lower risk proposition (Det -4) as an anchor. Would you consider in the future passing on an anchor simply by using the “eye test”?

@brn2loslive2win

 these bad outcomes are part of the gaming reality.My only concern is the ROI at year end.

I had an early season implosion last year and stayed the course which produced a nice ROI.

It has been many years where this approach has tanked.

@brn2loslive2win

 There was a very bad beat in the under anchor.The team hopelessly behind was just running the ball to kill the clock in the last 90 seconds and broke an 80 yard td. A swing of about 51 units.

@jowchoo

 Awful beat and is exactly why I can’t justify betting o/u in the NFL unless I absolutely love the play. Took Det o44.5 last week, game lands 44. Took Gb o47.5 and won that one. That’ll probably be it for those for a while. Imo o/u are some of the most highly unpredictable plays you can make on an NFL game 

I also agree, but the data supports the regression of teams that become out of balance (+4 or -4) ats record for sides OR totals.

An interesting occurence, BALT is 4-0 to the over and Houston 4-0 to the under this year. They play each other this week.

A rare event in my scheme, what to do? Well the history shows by years end the team out of balance to the over is a stronger regression candidate.

Expect the 2nd quarter of the season to reverse this bad start.............................................gl