Week 11 Value Ratings , Score Sheet Point Predictions , Inertia , Tempo

I am going to start off with the Value Ratings for teams 1-32 , and then I will get into my filtered game selections .

Value ratings are based on the method of the book GET IN AND WIN .
This isnt my main way of handicapping , but I do find it interesting .
To determine slots , I used the average of Covers , Massey , and
Saragrin rankings . I also has to eyeball where I put the Jets , Packers , and Dolphins .
 
Broncos 113
Seahawks 110
Saints 109
Chiefs 108
Pats 108
Niners 107
Panthers 106
Lions 105
Bengals 103
Cowboys 102
Colts 102
Bears 101
Eagles 101
Cards 100
Chargers 99
Ravens 99
Jets 98
Rams 98
Titans 97
Giants 97
Packers 96
Browns 96
Steelers 96
Redskins 95
Texans 95
Falcons 94
Bills 94
Dolphins 93
Vikings 92
Raiders 91
Bucs 89
Jags 87

After adding in home field advantage , these selections were generated . Safety bet margin is in ( ) .

Lions - 1.5  ( 25 % )
Eagles - 3.5  ( 21 % )
Jets + 1.5  ( 18 % )
Saints - 3  (  13 % )
Bears - 3  ( 13 % )
Chargers  - 1.5  (  11 %  )
Colts - 3  (  9  %  )
Giants  - 6  (  9  %  )
Bengals  - 5.5  (  7 %  )
Panthers  - 2.5  (  less than 3 % )
 

These are the predicted scores using the Score Sheet method from the book GET IN AND WIN .

23 Colts Titans 21
17 Browns Bengals 23
17 Ravens Bears 27
21 Jets Bills 21
28 Redskins Eagles 29
27 Lions Steelers 18
25 Chargers Dolphins 16
26 Packers Giants 17
23 Niners Saints 28
25 Pats Panthers 24

Now I used overall season to date to generate those scores . If I have time I am going to check the generated scores using last 3
games , and also do it from a defensive perspective , just to see
what it says .

I did the score sheet wrong for week 10 slightly wrong , but I am going to backcheck , and see what it got right and wrong . I will
check for winner and margin of victory .

Now its time to look at the Colts Titans game with the Inertia and Tempo metrics .

Colts
mva5 = 1.37 (    grade D    )
mva4 = 1.19 (    grade D -  )
mva3 = 1.14 (    grade F    )
mvar  = 1.23 (    grade D - )

When I get the chance , I am going to have to check last 4 games
of Colts ats .

Titans
mva5 = 1.71 ( grade C - )
mva4 = 1.62 ( grade D+ )
mva3 = 1.98 ( grade C+ )
mvar =  1.77 ( grade C - )

For observation purposes mva4 is offensive inertia from the previous weeks .  I dont know if it is worth looking at mva5 and mva3 and
comparing it to mva4 .

Basically its a slight lean towards the Titans .

Titans have a tempo of -10 and the Colts have a tempo of - 8.5
A negative tempo is a bad sign for cover potential .

At this point I am skipping this selection . Avoiding low potential bets is also important part of this method .

I forgot to mention the safety margin bet threshold is 15 % .

And just thinking out loud , I am probably going to drop the score sheet predictor , as I think its not worth the trouble .

I also forgot to post my new metrics , dp aka defensive potential and
rza aka red zone attempts .  I am also adding observation filters to
rza like red zone for and red zone delta , just in case . My guess
is there is a threshold for rzf or rzd to lower or raise bet level .

I am still learning how to incorporate dp and rza . Right now
take the higher metric in that category .

Colts
dp = 11.55
rza = 3.5

Titans
dp = 13.96
rza = 3.25

From initial observations , a dp below 15 is a bad sign , and both teams have that bad sign .  And for the Titans cover side , they have
the lower rza , which would lower the bet confidence if this was a
pick .

I just noticed the Value Ratings had the Colts Titans below the bet safety margin of 15 % , so it interesting two methods i use had this game as a skip .

Once I have the chance , I am going to backcheck on the mva grade
cover rate , like how well does a D+ or B- cover . And a low gpa indicating a low margin held up also .

Browns Bengals - 6

Browns
mva5 = 1.52 ( grade D )
mva4 = 1.35 ( grade D - )
mva3 = 1.30 ( grade D - )
mvar = 1.23 ( grade D )

Bengals
mva5 = 1.92 ( grade C )
mva4 = 1.73 ( grade C - )
mva3 = 1.67 ( grade D + )
mvar = 1.77 ( grade C - )

The lean is towards the Bengals since they have the
higher mvar .  As you can see the Bengals have a declining performance level .

The Bengals have a tempo of - 5.5 , and the Browns have a
tempo of 1.5  .

The Bengals have a defensive potential of 24. 45 , and the Browns
have a defensive potential of 15.12 .
The Bengals have the better dp .

The Bengals have the better red zone attempts at 3.00 compared
to the Browns at 2.25 .  For observation purposes the Bengals
have a red zone made of 2.00 , and the Browns have a
red zone made of 1.5 .  So that gives the Bengals a red zone delta
of 1.00 and the Browns have a red zone delta of 0.75 .

My regular betting method is to start with mvr , and then raise
or lower bet level confidence on things like tempo , dp , etc
but I am just going to assign Bengals the BRONZE category .

If the Bengals had a positive tempo , this selection would be at
least Silver .

Just for comparison , the Value Ratings had this game as a
skip , factoring in bet margin safety , and it had the Bengals
by a point margin of at least 10 .

I am also going to check what Saragrin's ELO has for this game .

As a reminder my current bet confidence categories are
Bronze , Silver , Gold .  In the future , I hope to expand this
to Copper , Bronze , Silver , Gold , Platinum , Diamond .

Saragrin has the Bengals with an ELO of 22.21
and the Browns have an ELO of 18.42

If I am reading it correctly , ELO is better at picking winners and
losers , and isnt concerned with margin of victory .

Btw Saragrin also had the Colts with better ELO , and they won .

Ravens Bears - 3

Ravens
mva5 = 1.91 ( grade C )
mva4 = 1.71 ( grade C - )
mva3 = 1.81 ( grade C )
mvar = 1.81  ( grade C )

Bears
mva5 = 1.87 ( grade C )
mva4 = 1.81 ( grade C )
mva3 = 1.60 ( grade D + )
mvar =  1.76 ( grade C - )

Originally I thought mva5 and mva3 had solved my spike performance problem , but now I am not so sure .
For now , I am going back to rely on mva4 as my starting point ,
which for this game is the Bears .

The Bears have a tempo of 10 , and the Ravens have a tempo
of 0 .  Nudge for the Bears .

The Bears have a dp of 11.90 , and the Ravens have a dp of
22.72 . Nudge for the Ravens . Dp of 11.90 is a red flag .

The Bears have a rza of 3.75 , and the Ravens have a rza of 2.75
Nudge for the Bears .

Usually these nudges would bump up the bet confidence level ,
but as dp and rza are new metrics for me ,  I will just take
their nudges as reinforcement .

Bears Bronze

Btw Saragrin has ELO Bears 20.22 and ELO Ravens 18.01 ,
which indicates a Bengals win .

Jets Bills + 1

Jets
mva5 = 2.43 ( grade A - )
mva4 = 2.25 ( grade B )
mva3 = 2.49 ( grade A )
mvar = 2.39  ( grade A - )

Bills
mva5 = 2.06 ( grade B - )
mva4 = 1.73 ( grade C - )
mva3 = 1.90 ( grade C )
mvar = 1.89 ( grade C )

So mva4 indicates the Jets .

The Jets have a tempo of - 4 and the Bills have a tempo of - 4 .

The Jets have a dp of 13.38 . and the Bills have a dp of 12.47 .

These are bad signs for both teams , so I will be skipping this
game based on my metrics . This is like making a betting
decision on which bad team will screw up more to lose the game .

Btw the Bills have the better rza , which might have nudged the bet
confidence on the Jets lower .

Saragrin has the ELO Jets at 21.82 and ELO Bills 14.52
If you happen to have the Saragrin ELO ratings since
week 4 , let me know .

As you can see from above , a general guideline is teams which have
an inertia of at least a B or even C+ should have a postive tempo . So
this is indication something is still out of whack when using my metrics on Jets games . Also their defensive potential should be
higher .

Which brings us to Redskins Eagles - 4.5

Redskins
mva5 = 2.71 ( grade A + )
mva4 = 3.03 ( grade A + )
mva3 = 2.75 ( grade A + )
mvar = 2.83  ( grade A + )

At this point , I am thinking have the Redskins had easy covers
the last several games ?  This should lower the bet confidence
on the Redskins side . 

Knowledge isnt power . Its the application of knowledge that is power .

Eagles
mva5 = 2.49 ( grade A  )
mva4 = 2.29 ( grade B + )
mva3 = 2.40 ( grade A + )
mvar = 2.56  ( grade A + )

So we have got an initial lean on the Eagles .

The Eagles have a tempo - 3.5 , and the Redskins have a tempo
of  -1 .  We are looking for positive tempo .  I was thinking of
putting money on the Eagles side , but now I am not .

The Eagles have a dp of 36.78 , which passes the 15 threshold .
The Redskins have a dp of 7.35 , which is really really bad bad .

Based on these metrics , this game will probably have a lot of lead changes or be a blowout .

The Redskins have the better rza of 4.25 compared to
the Eagles 2.75 , which is neutral at best for the eagles side bet confidence .

Saragrin ELO Eagles = 21.82  ELO Redskins 16.76

Using the eyeball test and my super genius brain power ,  I am
putting this bet at Eagles BRONZE .

Lions Steelers + 2.5

Lions
mva5 = 1.71 ( grade C - )
mva4 = 1.77 ( grade C - )
mva3 = 1.73 ( grade C - )
mvar =  1.73 ( grade C - )

Steelers
mva5 = 2.04 ( grade C + )
mva4 = 2.00 ( grade C + )
mva3 = 1.66 ( grade D + )
mvar = 1.90 ( grade C )

Looking at the numbers , we have a Steelers team on the decline ,
and a Lions team at a steady albiet C- .  I believe will experience
a short term upswing with their win at the Bears putting them
in the division drivers seat .

So we start with the Lions side .

The Lions have a tempo of 1 , and the Steelers have a tempo
of -12 .  Thats a very bad sign for the Steelers to cover .

The Lions have a dp of 19.23 , and the Steelers have a
dp of 11.95 .  Using the 15 threshold rule , thats another
bad sign for the Steelers .

The Lions have a rza of 3.75 and the Steelers have a rza of 4.00
I am keeping track of red zones made and red zone delta , which
I see how much this red zone segment relates to cover potential .
My current guess red zones made becomes a threshold factor
at some point , after looking for the better red zone attempts .

Saragrin ELO Lions 24.02  Steelers  14.09

Lions Silver

Based on the topbets line , I may put actual money on the Lions .
In the past , I have intentionally not put money on my to keep
my mind clear and calm . But I think I have the core rules going ,
so I may be putting money on side bets using my system .

Chargers Dolphins + 1

Does this line look off ? I would think the Chargers would be a bigger favorite .  Thats just my initial thought before I do the number crunching .

Chargers
mva5 = 2.93 ( grade A + )
mva4 = 3.28 ( grade A + )
mva3 = 3.25 ( grade A + )
mvar  = 3.15 ( grade A + )

The Chargers did cover with the Colts , and hung with the Broncos
for most of the game , so I think those numbers are basically legit
when playing a below average team like the Dolphins .

Dolphins
mva5 = 1.53 ( grade C )
mva4 = 1.44 ( grade D )
mva3 = 1.84 ( grade C )
mvar =  1.62 ( grade D )

Lean towards the Chargers .

The Chargers have a tempo of 4.5 , and the Dolphins have a
tempo of 0.5

At this point , the Chargers are in the Silver bet category .

The Chargers have the better dp of 18.78 , compared to the
Dolphins 15.28

The Chargers and Dolphins have a rza of 3.5 .

No red flags there , so Chargers Silver .

This is another game  I might put money on , if Topbet has
a good line .

Packers Giants - 4

These are the Packers numbers without Rodgers .

Inertia is 2.39 ( grade A - )
Tempo is - 7.5
dp is 11.98
rza is 3.5

These are low confidence numbers for the Packers .

Giants
mva5 = 1.88 ( grade C )
mva4 = 2.35 ( grade B + )
mva3 = 2.28 ( grade B + )
mvar = 2.17 ( grade B )

Tempo = 2
dp = 33.25
rza = 2.25

I am going to make a call of Giants BRONZE

Niners Saints - 3

I am a casual Saints fan , so I might read too much into these numbers .

Niners
mva5 = 3.37
mva4 = 3.29
mva3 = 3.71
mvar = 3.45

I dont have gpa sheet handy , but I am pretty sure those are A+ grades .

Saints
mva5 = 2.36
mva4 = 2.21
mva3 = 2.55
mvar = 2.37

The inertia points the Niners , but I am wondering if I should have done a special inertia calculation using only Saints home games .

The Niners have a tempo of 1 , and the Saints have a tempo of
4 , so no red flags for either team .

The Niners have a dp of 37.77 , and the Saints have a dp of
18.89 , which passes the 15 threshold .

The Niners have a rza of 3.0 and the Saints have a rza of 3.5 .

Saragrin has an ELO Niners 23.70 and the an ELO Saints 25.24

I am going to skip making a selection on this game .

To make it easier to see

SILVER
Lions ( -2.5 )
Chargers ( -1 )

BRONZE
Bengals ( - 6 )
Bears ( - 3 )
Eagles ( - 4.5 )
Giants ( - 4 )

Overall I went 3-2-1 .  I am disappointed that my silver picks went 0-2 , especially since I put money on those selections .  I think my newest metric defensive potential is helping me out . Tempo is also helping out on skipping teams .  The 5 game and 3 game moving averages are still a work in progress . Maybe I should do 2 out of 3 minimum edge on mva ...

 

For those wondering why I skipped the Pats Panthers game , I had a feeling my metrics would be off on the Panthers, rating them too high , and wouldnt you know it,  they covered .

I may do an unofficial post on the numbers , just to see what they would have said .

 I am glad I didnt put money on this game , as I would have bet the Pats . 

You are my hero