Really nothing I like as far as sides this week. I have one lean which is MIN -3 but it's not quite making it to the level of being a play.
Justin Jefferson o5.5 receptions +110 - Last week he had 12 targets and only had 4 receptions. I dont forsee his targets dropping under 10 ever, and I think the Chicago defense will be much more forgiving. Even if they can't connect on deep balls JJ will be catching little screens and what not. This is just a great price on a low number for a top receiver.
Really nothing I like as far as sides this week. I have one lean which is MIN -3 but it's not quite making it to the level of being a play.
Justin Jefferson o5.5 receptions +110 - Last week he had 12 targets and only had 4 receptions. I dont forsee his targets dropping under 10 ever, and I think the Chicago defense will be much more forgiving. Even if they can't connect on deep balls JJ will be catching little screens and what not. This is just a great price on a low number for a top receiver.
Tough week. Not going to be many plays. Further we go in the year lines get tighter and tighter. Same thing on the college side. Even props lines are tight this week.
Added:
Jordan Love o4.5 1st Q rush yds +300 - Bit of an unorthodox bet here for me. I like Love to run to escape pressure from the Giants pass rush here. I dont care for the o10.5 game number because I worry about kneel downs at end of game. So I'm taking a shot here on the 1st quarter at a nice plus 300
Tough week. Not going to be many plays. Further we go in the year lines get tighter and tighter. Same thing on the college side. Even props lines are tight this week.
Added:
Jordan Love o4.5 1st Q rush yds +300 - Bit of an unorthodox bet here for me. I like Love to run to escape pressure from the Giants pass rush here. I dont care for the o10.5 game number because I worry about kneel downs at end of game. So I'm taking a shot here on the 1st quarter at a nice plus 300
Darnell Washington TD +300 - Aaron Rodgers is obsessed with this guy. He has constantly been trying to throw TDs to him. Good news, this week they play the Bungles who are so incredibly bad against TEs, so Washington has a great chance to get that TD
Darnell Washington TD +300 - Aaron Rodgers is obsessed with this guy. He has constantly been trying to throw TDs to him. Good news, this week they play the Bungles who are so incredibly bad against TEs, so Washington has a great chance to get that TD
Jaylin Lane o22.5 - Going back to the well again w Lane. Hit on o25.5 last week, now we have a lower number and Washington should be throwing quite a bit
Jaylin Lane o22.5 - Going back to the well again w Lane. Hit on o25.5 last week, now we have a lower number and Washington should be throwing quite a bit
Isaiah Likely o23.5 rec yds - played him o21.5 last week and he should've got there but there was a couple of plays he failed to connect on. Cleveland is extremely difficult to run on and Baltimore should be doing a good bit of throwing so I think we can clear the number this week
Isaiah Likely o23.5 rec yds - played him o21.5 last week and he should've got there but there was a couple of plays he failed to connect on. Cleveland is extremely difficult to run on and Baltimore should be doing a good bit of throwing so I think we can clear the number this week
My thoughts on some games, though as of right now I dont think these are rising to the level of confidence needed to be plays.
WAS +125 - Miami has played well recently, but they still have a lot of issues. Washington does as well. My thoughts here are that Tua has turnover problems and Washington takes advantage. Kind of a mean reversion situation as well. Washington coming off 2 really bad games and Miami coming off a very good game.
HOU -5.5 - I just find it interesting that this line has been dropping. There's not a big difference between Stroud and Mills playing Tennessee. I dont know how Tennessee scores quite honestly. Houston could lay an egg and still easily cover this 20-3
CIN +5.5 - Pittsburgh is just not very good. Cindy isn't either, but these games always come down to a fg in the end. No chance I would lay 5.5 w Pitt. Plus Cincinnati is off bye
ATL -3.5 - The ride is over for Carolina in my opinion. Atlanta is coming back from Germany which isn't great, but Drake London should be able to feast here and I think Carolina will have a hard time moving the ball. Plus Atlanta has revenge from the 30-0 beat down they suffered from Carolina earlier.
ARI +3 - Arizona has some important injuries on defense and now has no MHJ. SF is decimated by injuries as well. I just dont think SF should be laying 3 on the road. Arizona is still a decent team
KC ml - They are winning this game in my opinion. All I got to say about that
My thoughts on some games, though as of right now I dont think these are rising to the level of confidence needed to be plays.
WAS +125 - Miami has played well recently, but they still have a lot of issues. Washington does as well. My thoughts here are that Tua has turnover problems and Washington takes advantage. Kind of a mean reversion situation as well. Washington coming off 2 really bad games and Miami coming off a very good game.
HOU -5.5 - I just find it interesting that this line has been dropping. There's not a big difference between Stroud and Mills playing Tennessee. I dont know how Tennessee scores quite honestly. Houston could lay an egg and still easily cover this 20-3
CIN +5.5 - Pittsburgh is just not very good. Cindy isn't either, but these games always come down to a fg in the end. No chance I would lay 5.5 w Pitt. Plus Cincinnati is off bye
ATL -3.5 - The ride is over for Carolina in my opinion. Atlanta is coming back from Germany which isn't great, but Drake London should be able to feast here and I think Carolina will have a hard time moving the ball. Plus Atlanta has revenge from the 30-0 beat down they suffered from Carolina earlier.
ARI +3 - Arizona has some important injuries on defense and now has no MHJ. SF is decimated by injuries as well. I just dont think SF should be laying 3 on the road. Arizona is still a decent team
KC ml - They are winning this game in my opinion. All I got to say about that
With you on Houston. The line move can’t intimidate you here. I agree there isn’t much drop off from Stroud to Mills, which is a major reason for me taking Houston to win the division before the season started (not working out well, I know). Mills will literally have to lose the game on turnovers for Tenn to stay in this one.
Like Cincy. 5.5 is just too much to give to an offense with Chase and Higgins. Good thing about Flacco is he’s just a grip it and rip it guy. He’ll throw 4 tds, 2 picks, and score 30+ points without a card in the world. That’s good enough to cover imo.
Slight disagreement on ATL. I just don’t believe in this team with Penix. He misses guys wide open and doesn’t process very quickly. If Carolina can get pressure Penix will turn it over. Penix has not thrown an interception in 4 straight games now. He had a pick 6 dropped last week by Gardner. Penix o0.5 int +118 is a top play for me this week. As soon as the alt line comes out I’ll be taking 2+ at somewhere around +350 I’d imagine. Divisional game with the above mentioned details and I’ll take the 3.5 with Carolina in hopes that Penix hands them the cover.
With you on Houston. The line move can’t intimidate you here. I agree there isn’t much drop off from Stroud to Mills, which is a major reason for me taking Houston to win the division before the season started (not working out well, I know). Mills will literally have to lose the game on turnovers for Tenn to stay in this one.
Like Cincy. 5.5 is just too much to give to an offense with Chase and Higgins. Good thing about Flacco is he’s just a grip it and rip it guy. He’ll throw 4 tds, 2 picks, and score 30+ points without a card in the world. That’s good enough to cover imo.
Slight disagreement on ATL. I just don’t believe in this team with Penix. He misses guys wide open and doesn’t process very quickly. If Carolina can get pressure Penix will turn it over. Penix has not thrown an interception in 4 straight games now. He had a pick 6 dropped last week by Gardner. Penix o0.5 int +118 is a top play for me this week. As soon as the alt line comes out I’ll be taking 2+ at somewhere around +350 I’d imagine. Divisional game with the above mentioned details and I’ll take the 3.5 with Carolina in hopes that Penix hands them the cover.
TB/BUF o46 - Both of these teams have the ability to air it out against each other's bad secondaries. Buffalo always scores more at home and having Josh Palmer back should be a big help for a Buffalo pass game that needs help.
TB/BUF o46 - Both of these teams have the ability to air it out against each other's bad secondaries. Buffalo always scores more at home and having Josh Palmer back should be a big help for a Buffalo pass game that needs help.
SEA/LAR u49.5 -120 - We have 2 high flying high points scoring offenses matching up here, but this is a hard fought division game where the defenses are going to step up and make things difficult. Both teams put up over 40 in blowouts last week. Look for them to come down to earth in an ugly hard fought 23-20 game
SEA/LAR u49.5 -120 - We have 2 high flying high points scoring offenses matching up here, but this is a hard fought division game where the defenses are going to step up and make things difficult. Both teams put up over 40 in blowouts last week. Look for them to come down to earth in an ugly hard fought 23-20 game
DET/PHI o46 - Philly has certainly not been a point scoring machine, however they have shown they can turn it up and sling it when needed. Detroit is not great vs the pass and we know their offense can put up points. I see Detroit pushing the pace in this game and forcing Philly to be more aggressive on offense with the passing game
Gunnar Helm o11.5 rec yds - Helm has become one of Cam Wards favored targets. Houston is so good defensively and its going to be tough for Ward. The easiest pass to complete against Houston is with the TE. Not asking a lot to get over this low number.
Luther Burden o24.5 rec yds +120 - Burden is a solid deep threat and Minnesota has been susceptible to long passes with their heavy blitzing. Burden can hit this with one play.
Luther Burden TD +475 - Small bet, maybe he can get into the box on a deep shot
DET/PHI o46 - Philly has certainly not been a point scoring machine, however they have shown they can turn it up and sling it when needed. Detroit is not great vs the pass and we know their offense can put up points. I see Detroit pushing the pace in this game and forcing Philly to be more aggressive on offense with the passing game
Gunnar Helm o11.5 rec yds - Helm has become one of Cam Wards favored targets. Houston is so good defensively and its going to be tough for Ward. The easiest pass to complete against Houston is with the TE. Not asking a lot to get over this low number.
Luther Burden o24.5 rec yds +120 - Burden is a solid deep threat and Minnesota has been susceptible to long passes with their heavy blitzing. Burden can hit this with one play.
Luther Burden TD +475 - Small bet, maybe he can get into the box on a deep shot
Added: DET/PHI o46 - Philly has certainly not been a point scoring machine, however they have shown they can turn it up and sling it when needed. Detroit is not great vs the pass and we know their offense can put up points. I see Detroit pushing the pace in this game and forcing Philly to be more aggressive on offense with the passing game Gunnar Helm o11.5 rec yds - Helm has become one of Cam Wards favored targets. Houston is so good defensively and its going to be tough for Ward. The easiest pass to complete against Houston is with the TE. Not asking a lot to get over this low number. Luther Burden o24.5 rec yds +120 - Burden is a solid deep threat and Minnesota has been susceptible to long passes with their heavy blitzing. Burden can hit this with one play. Luther Burden TD +475 - Small bet, maybe he can get into the box on a deep shot
Sheesh...for someone who said he'd only have a couple plays this week, they just keep coming ;)
Added: DET/PHI o46 - Philly has certainly not been a point scoring machine, however they have shown they can turn it up and sling it when needed. Detroit is not great vs the pass and we know their offense can put up points. I see Detroit pushing the pace in this game and forcing Philly to be more aggressive on offense with the passing game Gunnar Helm o11.5 rec yds - Helm has become one of Cam Wards favored targets. Houston is so good defensively and its going to be tough for Ward. The easiest pass to complete against Houston is with the TE. Not asking a lot to get over this low number. Luther Burden o24.5 rec yds +120 - Burden is a solid deep threat and Minnesota has been susceptible to long passes with their heavy blitzing. Burden can hit this with one play. Luther Burden TD +475 - Small bet, maybe he can get into the box on a deep shot
Sheesh...for someone who said he'd only have a couple plays this week, they just keep coming ;)
I'm with you in Atlanta side, so much so in fact that I have my biggest play of the year on them this week (Pats ML + Falcons ML parlay) locked it early in the week at -122 odds
I'm with you in Atlanta side, so much so in fact that I have my biggest play of the year on them this week (Pats ML + Falcons ML parlay) locked it early in the week at -122 odds
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