Posted:
#1
This is my highest rated Thursday Night football pick.
Steelers -7 3 units
Think the +TD looks good with a team with a winning record?Think again. While the Titans are certainly headed in the right direction the teams that they have picked off recently are all pretty weak, especially on offense. Now they go on the road to face a stacked Pitt offense who is ready to break out and I expect to be primed for primetime.
With back to back road games and the bye week sandwiched in between, the Steelers haven't played in front of their home crowd in almost a month. Now they get to do it at night on primetime and show the world what they're offense can do. If you think the Steelers aren't aware that they haven't scored 30 points this year, trust me they are, and this will be a good opportunity for them to do it as the Titans defense isn't really that good, most of their good defensive games came against weak offenses like the Bengals last week.
Pitt has the league leader in rec yards and rush yards, they are overdue for a breakout game. They have a whole month of primetime games coming up now and I expect them to get off to a tremendous start.
When the Titans played a team with similar talent on offense (a big accurate QB, 2 top WRs and a tough to bring down RB) in week 1 vs Oakland, they couldn't get stops. When they played the Texans with Watson at the helm (which made the Hous offense like night and day) they gave up 57 points.
Should be interesting to see Adoree Jackson matchup with Shuster as they used to be teammates. And Lebeau also used to coach at Pitt. The other CB has some familiarity with AB from playing against him when he was on NE. But I don't see them stopping Pitt here even with that familiarity. Pitt is just too talented.
The Titans are a very good home team but this is a step up from their past opponents. Last time the Steelers were off back to back road games and played an AFC south team the Jags killed them so they will not be caught sleepin here, and Tennessee's defense isn't as good as the Jags. Big Ben had a nightmare game but came out next week and torched the Chiefs in KC. This team can turn it on when they want, and they kind of know that, which is why they sleptwalked through last weeks win, off the bye, with not only TNF but a slew of Primetime matchups coming up, playing the Colts, they didn't care at all and they still won. tennessee squeaked by the Bengals and the Bengals offense is nothing compared to the Steelers.
Pitt's defense is very underrated - 4th in the NFL in opponents yards per play allowed. 3rd in the league in 1st half points allowed, while Tennessee ranks 17th. This stat is worth mentioning here bc whoever has the lead can hand off more which is what they both want to do. Meanwhile the team that is behind will have to throw and this plays to Pitts strengths in a big way - Pitt is 2nd in the league in sack %, 3rd in overall sacks. Tennessee is 32nd in sack percentage, they basically have the worst pass rush in the league despite having Jurell Casey who is very good. And pressure is the only way to beat Big Ben (like the Jags did, who are 1st in the league in sack percentage). Conversely Tennessee is allowing sacks on 6.5% of their dropbacks and 8% the last 3 games while Pitts offensive line is only allowing 3.5% and 1% the last 3 games.
The steelers have 3 division games, plus GB, NE, and Houston awat. They get NE at home and GB and GB doesn't have Rodgers, Houston doesn't have Deshaun. They are going to be looking at this schedule thinking they can run the table and get the top spot and it starts tonight. Tennessee is going to find out exactly where they are now with this big step up from beating the likes of Cinci, Cleveland, Baltimore and the Colts. Now they're playing the undisputed king of the North in their place on primetime where Bell, Brown and Shuster probably have a bunch of crazy TD celebrations they want to do, and for that they need to score TDs
I also like this game to go OVER the total bc as said I think Pitt scores a lot of points tonight. Their D might allow a little more than normal too with the starting DB out Haden, but I'm taking a nice treble here:
Pitt -7
Over 44
South Florida -21.5 in NCAAF
BOL
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