TNF Chargers vs Vikings

Chargers -3.5 @ -105

Ah, three things I love to avoid. Thursday Night football (so many clunkers), laying a hook with a FG spread and just betting on the Chargers in general. I did try to warn multiple people off them vs the Colts last week because not only are the Colts for real, the Chargers are just always overrated, always injured and always underachievers come the season's end.

Their main issue this season is they are awful in the red zone, last in the NFL in TD% and only crawled out of last place because the Raiders didn't even get into the red zone last game.. neither did the Titans.. can't remember seeing that happen to one team let alone two in a week.

And a big part of that is they're missing their tackles and as a result are in a 3 way tie for least rushing TDs in the league with Cincinnati and Tennessee and haven't scored on the ground in 3 games. Indy, as I tried to warn some, has the most rush TDs in the NFL. It was not a good matchup.

I place huge value on red zone numbers so why would I pick LA then?

Well, Minnesota is not Indianapolis. All the strengths the Colts have the Vikings do not share. They're 19th in rush TDs. Indy is 1st in 3rd quarter points scored, Minny merely 15th, Chargers are 4th. (I also place a lot of weight on 3rd quarter offense and defense). Colts allow the least sacks in the league. Only the Jets and Titans have allowed more than Minnesota. The Colts are 3rd in turnover margin per game. Minnesota is 26th. LA isn't much better at 22nd but basically what I'm saying is many people cap off last week's game - shortest route to the poor house many times.

Similar to how many people wanted to bet the Falcons again after their MNF win over Buffalo and lost, this is a situation where now many won't want to lay anything with the Chargers let alone the hook. It's not as good a situation as Atlanta with a bunch of young guys all high and feeling themselves flying out the west coast to play CMC and the top passing offense, because this Charger team is truly struggling, but it's still a decent 'step down in opposition' play based on stats.

Unfortunately with both teams being bad rrd zone offenses and good red zone defenses it will probably be another TNF clunker. If I was a total player I'd bet the Under but I'm a spread/side guy. Yeah it's a bit iffy laying more than a FG with a team that kicks so many and often when they do win it's off the leg of Dicker the kicker but Minnesota really doesn't scare me. Wentz was awful vs Philly and their wins are vs the Bengals, Browns and Chicago in week 1 before the Bears found their mojo.

Very nice analysis, I enjoy reading it. Thank you.

Not to mention the run game isn’t there considering all the injuries for both teams.