It's not that egregious, but there might be an opportunity to either fade the Jags, or back the Broncos next week.
First Downs: Jags 22, Broncos 21
Total Plays: 68 to 65
Total Yards: 346 to 445
YPP: 5.1 to 6.8
Times sacked: 5 to 1
Redzone: 4/5 to 1/2
Turnovers: 0 to 2
Time of possession: 33:13 vs 26:47
We can easily chop it down to turnovers and production in the redzone. Turnovers are usually a wildcard, hard to predict.
When it comes to redzone efficiency(td only), on the season Denver is 62%(#11), and Jacksonville is 61.67%(#12). Both offenses are nearly identical. But in this game the Broncos underwhelmed in this department, and the Jags over achieved.
Defensively, how do these teams normally defend in the redzone? TD only again: Denver 43.18%(#2), Jacksonville 58.14%(#18). Things don't always play out how they are on paper. But they tend to revert back to the mean in the following game.
I was on the Jags +3.5 in anticipation of a Denver letdown. There was a really good 11 game win streak trend to fade em here. They were also coming off a hell of a physical game against the Packers. The Jags were coming off a 5 game win streak where they had 3 "no sweat" wins vs the Titans, Colts and Jets most recently.
In week 17 the Jags will travel to Indianapolis for a noon game. The Jags won the first game in week 14 vs Riley Leonard. Daniel Jones was 5 for 7 with one interception before his Achilles exploded. The Jags play the Titans in week 18, nothing to look ahead to.
The Broncos travel to KC on a short week playing the Chiefs on Christmas. Lord only knows who will be playing quarterback. How to determine the spread in this game will almost certainly be close to impossible imo. The Broncos will have the Chargers on deck, and it could be to determine the AFC West champion if the Broncos somehow fumble the game vs the Chiefs. The Chargers beat the Broncos in their first matchup.
Just some stuff to think about
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