The Teams Don't Matter

If unfamiliar with my work, I am huge on value plays and not necessarily matchups. Especially true if they have + money attached.  

Well the book is going to clean up on sides as all 4 bets (on many sites) come with a premium.  We have been blessed a true coin flip and in my opinion (value wise) there isn't a bad bet based on objective or subjective handicapping and/or preferences.

To that end, for me it'll be an Eagles -3 and -6 for (+135 and +210) .67 / .33 units.

Finally while the scarcity of the superbowl triggers emotion which triggers action, be reminded this game counts equally to my Davidson / Richmond win from earlier today. 

It's a grind across many sports and seasons and I wish you luck in whatever plays you make as we made it to the end of another one.

Interesting that if you played an undefeated (3-0) Indy team at -3 you'd get +195 and if you played them at -6 you'd get +295.

@unplucked_gem

 I like your system and write ups. I actually like the Rams this week though at a larger margin up to -9. So I bet 3.5, 6, and 9. No dogs this week I like as outright winners, that I would want to sell a lot of points with. I would sell some points with Jets and Raiders probably but those aren't strong confidence that I actually want to play. 

Other than Colts are there any other games you would want to sell points on with the dog?

@Yanasaur

They're two very good teams and honestly you'd be justified on either side.  It's just a hell of a price for a 3-0 team.  Probably get a good price at -9 too and I do like the Rams in whole.

Value wise, if one liked Tennessee they would be getting +275 on the moneyline and +370 at -3.  With two under preforming teams that's pretty good value structured at .67u and .33u.

Those are the only two at the moment that the model show statistical significance.  I haven't subjectively capped them to determine if they're actionable to me.

@unplucked_gem

 Thanks, yea Tennessee is interesting. I posted them in my thread as a play, but at +7 -105 which I felt was a good price. The fact that this line hasnt moved off 7 the entire week is a good sign. -3 at +370 does sound very enticing. The past week ive really been looking at these alt lines more and more.

@Yanasaur

It's not for everyone, you have to be very emotionally solid.

At +370, your breakeven point is 21%.  So in theory you're supppsed to lose 8 of 10, which most people can't handle.

If Houston had any sign of life in 3 weeks, I wouldn't even consider it but they're both bad and it's any given Sunday so it'll at least be consideration enough to subjectively cap.

@unplucked_gem

 Right, you are going to lose most of them. All that matters is you hit enough to make out in the long run. Coming from a poker background and learning odds to draw to hands has helped me a lot with this. I play TD props a decent amount typically only +200 or more. Over the season I will make money on it, but of course more losing than hitting.

@Yanasaur

 Also laying up to 9 with the rams this week. And if I lose I won’t feel the least bit bad about it. I know what the Rams are and I know what I can expect with them. At home is just a bonus. And no matter what you have seen so far from the colts I don’t see how anyone could say that they know for sure what they’re getting with Indy. In my eyes they’re 2-1 with two wins over Miami and Tennessee. The Denver game was obviously what it was. If Indy pulls out a win this week I’ll completely change my tune, but until then I’m not convinced. GL 

@unplucked_gem

 Not sure I’m following you with Eagles -3 and 6 with those prices? Did you mean Tampa?

@brn2loslive2win

Check the date.  My humorous dig at logical posts getting no traction and drown out by everyone's GOY monster smash plays.

But I love the Monster GOY smash plays!! The best thing about them is that if they lose you just come back and bet another 10k on the next one!

@brn2loslive2win

 Yes exactly. Rams are the real deal on both sides of the ball. Indy has flashed vs bad teams and Danny Dimes is the same QB hes always been. He was always better than he looked in NY bc they didnt have the right pieces and system, but hes not as good as hes looked the last couple weeks and the Rams defensively will give him problems. I predict a bad showing for Danny and I have bet under on Taylor rushing also in addition to my Rams -3.5 and -9. 

@brn2loslive2win

That's what I never understood. What stop at 4 or 10 units a play.  I mean you could be up 1300 units before the 4 pm games even start.

@Yanasaur

Indy has flashed vs bad teams and Danny Dimes is the same QB hes always been

Exactly right.  I'm not an NFL coach, but if I were, I'd cheat the secondary to stop the run and make him beat me with his arm.

What's the number at -9

@unplucked_gem

 Seeing +200 at -9. What’s your opinion on that price?

No it seems fine.  Anything that has a + is good in my book.  I personally don't get too caught up on all those pricing details, just not my jam.

I was asking as I was contemplating what the model said with what you both see and wonder if a wager on both is prudent:

LAR -6 (+132) .40u

LAR -9 (+200) .10u

Indy ML (+155) .40u

Indy -3 (+195) .10u

Hymmmm, interesting.  Going to keep at it and see.

@unplucked_gem

 Not to be a pest, but I’m curious to know how you/model feel about Minnesota -10 +285? Based on what I’ve seen so far with Pittsburgh a blowout here would be far from a surprise…

Completely agree w your assessment on both Rams & Colts.   I expect a pissed off Rams team upset at last week's performance And I don't think Colts have committed a turnover in 3 games..  the colts aren't this good, and seem due for a reality check traveling to West Coast.