So What Is Up With This Betting Line?

Chargers versus Jaguars opened at Chargers -1.5  Now the line is -2.5 and -3. 

This has sucker bet written all over it. An obvious troll for Charger money.  If I owned a book and opened the line on this one Chargers -1.5, I would never need a colon cleanse. 

EASY LOOK AT PAST RESULTS WEST TO EAST @ NYG VS ROOKIE QB 1ST GAME -6.5 CHALK LOST GAME

-4.5 @ MIAMI LOST $ 29-27 

-10.5 @ TENN. LOST $  27-20 WIN

@tjones1270

Now take into account the recent results of each team! The Jags melted down and lost the game to the Bears after getting a big lead and the Chargers blasted the Steelers.

Which memories stick in the minds of the bettors? The games that the Chargers struggled going West to East or the a$$ kicking they gave to the Steelers last Sunday night on prime time? 

Recency bias wins out every time IMO. The betting public is picking the Chargers hand over fist over some numbers that I see and why? Is it West to East thingy or is it because of their blowing out of the Steelers? 

Jaguars lost to the Texans last week after being up 29-10

I'm with you on this Bob, Jacks or nothing. 

Let's not forget that the Chargers are the biggest public play on Sunday 

Jags +3 large

I can't ever trust the Jags enough to bet on them. I never had confidence in Trevor Lawrence, and probably never will.

Sometimes the public wins. I can't bet the Jags but I won't be betting Chargers here either. The line is just saying that in order to get people to bet the Jags they had to give them a full fg. Based on this line, to me it looks like a game the books dont have a hard opinion on and it makes sense why. The chargers are a better team but inconsistent and traveling east, Jags are inconsistent as hell too. 

Considering what has transpired recently (the melting down of the Jags in the 4th quarter and the beat down of the Steelers by the Chargers on prime time), in order to get the public to bet the Jags the number would have to be at least 7 IMO. Who the hell is going to bet the Jags even at +3???

Yet, the Jags +3 is more than likely the winning side. The books knew with their opening line from which direction the lions' share of the money would come in on. The books didn't think in order to get equal action on both sides we will open it with Chargers -1.5. C'mon man! The bookmakers knew that with this line they would be flooded with Charger money. 

Game is played at 10am for chargers

Chargers OL is a mess

Steelers are a trash team, chargers blowout means little

Home dogs cover ar like 60% or whatever it is

Line is right on

@dubz4dummyz

The line is right on if you want to attract a boatload of money on the Chargers which it seems they do. Loved your take on it and I don't disagree. 

Some food for thought:

Jacksonville has not covered in their last four home games Not to mention that they lost their last six games against teams with winning records

Tread carefully 

@justliketoplay

 Didn't they cover against KC in week 6 and HOU week 3 when they won SU?

 Didn't they cover against KC in week 6 and HOU week 3 when they won SU?

Chargers have one lost i didnt see coming. 

The other loses was foreseeable because of the injuries. If you cant protect Herbert he cant throw the ball.

Colts were just way too hot at the time.

But eventually you regression usually to a weak/midterm team.

Chargers on that same path.

Its hard to side with Jags.  Especially with how many OL they have on the injury list. Add in Travis Hunter season ending injury.

What?

If you take Jags and lose.  Your piss off cuz you know they suck.

If you take Bolts and lose. Your piss off cuz you knew that line was fishy!

Historically since the '02 re-align, AFC home dogs not off a bye vs conf opp, team lost s/u last week after leading by more than 10pts after the 3rd qtr:

p:M3>10 and p:L and HCD and conference=AFC and season>=2002 and p:week=week-1

0-6 ats...by -11.5ppg

Colts vs Chargers was the last one in '22

& if the total is between 39.5 to 53.5:

0-3 s/u...by -18.0ppg

0-3 ats...by -12.3ppg

0-3 o/u...by -14.8ppg

I wouldn't touch the Jags+

@aardvark_picks

 Upon further review you are correct I pointed out a wrong stat on Jacksonville thanks for addressing it 

@aardvark_picks

Well I'm not used to giving wrong stats out so I had to check again myself and at the time that they beat the chiefs  in game six The Chiefs had a losing record of two and three and when they beat Houston in game three Houston came in with an 0-2 record so technically they don't qualify as teams with a winning record at the time that Jacksonville beat those two.

So it still stands that Jacksonville hasn't beat a team with a winning record at home in six games at the time of playing them to clarify.

@justliketoplay

 FWIW.  Chargers have not beaten anyone with a winning record the past 7 road games. 

Chargers last 3 rd >  NYG , Miami, Tenn. An AOPR of 14,. We all know the outcomes of thos gms

Jags last 3 home>  Texans( good D) W Seattle ( great D) L KC Good D) W An AOPR of 22

    Thats an 8pt advantage in AOPR for Jags which in my power rating data base is huge for a home underdog . In another words LAC's PFF( pure points for) and PPA  differential is negative vs that caliber of competition on the road. Even though Jags PPA/PPA differentila is negative at home vs quality competition , Jags are still 4 pts better at home according to my model. Thats why I put them in a 6 pt teaser @ +9..w/ Seattle +8.5. It wont lose in a tight game, which is more likely to happen. The AOPR dynamic will over power any injury list that both teams have..me personally I want a safe win w/ the home dog teaser

@tjohnsont35

 More the reason to tread carefully with this game wiserguy may have the best way to play it hooked up in a teaser as mentioned above. 

@justliketoplay

https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/odds/line-history/2397664

My opinion, fwiw, when lines get bet like this early in the week it isn't the the avg Joe. I think it's safe to say that the Chargers are a sharp(first) and a public play this week.

Why early bettors took the Bolts is unknown at this point, to me at least.

I know for damn sure if they line hits 3.5, you can bet your bottom dollar those same bettors with a Charger ticket at -2.5 or better will take the Jags +3.5 and attempt a middle. 

Just my 2 cents