Hi again Covers! Back again after a super long time off (although its not that long to me tbh time flies) looked up my past threads looks like my last time posting in NFL was 2020 Superbowl had a very confident play on the Chiefs, nailed it perfectly I literally said even if they have to pull off a comeback they will. There was a clear pattern of 49ers being vulnerable to late comebacks and of course Mahomes comeback ability is obvious. That thread I look like a profit in hindsight even to myself prophet* well a profit and a prophet how about that?
It looks like Covers only shows threads back to 2019 now? I wasn't able to look far enough back to find my 2018 system threads... No preview button anymore? What the f? How am I supposed to make sure my thread looks the way I want without edits (don't want edits cause it could look like you're modifying plays faking results I want perfect transparency cause this is legit)?
Okay so here's the deal I had planned to continue the system plays on covers in 2019 and beyond every year but got distracted by life in the offseason and changed course... apparently I came back briefly in 2020 mostly for superbowl barely remember but it is all familiar now.
Posting now cause I've been working on a new similar NFL system to what I did in 2018 the past few weeks and I just got one working at what looks like a high enough standard for now (gonna constantly be trying to improve it) I was aiming for 60% ATS minimum every week with zero losing weeks and so far its meeting that on weeks 3 thru 6 which is all I tested so far, weeks 1 & 2 are the most volatile the starting out weeks so I'm not worried about those but still gonna check out the backtesting on those soon as well.
The original system is hard to access cause so long ago (7 years) and its easy enough to recreate so I'm just starting from scratch. I don't remember all the exact details but again its simple enough to figure out.
This system is currently clearly weaker if I recall correctly 2018 system finished the season around 75% ATS can't remember if that was based on playing every single game every week or narrowing down the higher confidence ones but I thought that was playing every game just can't be sure.
As far as I recall I'm not sure if the 2018 system ever had a week under 65% or especially under 60% I think almost every week was high 60s or somewhere in the 70s% ATS maybe with a rare 80s or 90s week I cannot remember. Either way the new system right now with its 2 out of 4 weeks being only 60% is definitely performing below the standard of that 2018 system...
To be continued 4000 character limit...
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