Play of the year for me. Left no stone unturned.

Bills are a far superior team playing on the road in primetime. Every square alive will be hammering Josh Allen. That being said I can feel this one deep in my gut.

Taking Atlanta at home tonight, and here's why this is a solid spot for the home dog.

The Bijan Robinson Factor

Let's start with the most glaring matchup: Bijan Robinson vs Buffalo's run defense.

Bills rank 28th in rush defense allowing 145.6 YPG. Buffalo allows the 3rd-highest explosive run rate to running backs. Bills give up 6.7 yards after missed tackles (4th worst in NFL). Robinson is averaging 4.9 YPC and leads the league with 146 scrimmage yards per game. Robinson averages 4.2 yards after contact per carry (3rd among RBs with 50+ carries). When Robinson forces a missed tackle, he's averaging 7.3 yards.

This is a premium RB against one of the worst run defenses in football. The matchup screams Bijan having a massive night.

Falcons Defense is Criminally Underrated

Atlanta's defense is quietly elite right now. #1 total defense in NFL (244 YPG allowed). #1 pass defense (135 passing YPG allowed). Lowest completion percentage allowed at 58%. Generating 38.7% pressure rate (7th in NFL). When they pressure, they're giving up 9.4 YPC on scrambles.

Here's the thing about Josh Allen - he's getting 52.8% of his passing yards after the catch this season. Atlanta allows the 4th-fewest yards per extended dropback and they're allowing just 3.1 yards after the catch (best in NFL). This defense is specifically built to neutralize what Buffalo does best.

Bills' Current State

Buffalo just got embarrassed at home on Sunday Night Football, losing 23-20 to New England. The problems were obvious. 3 turnovers (had just 1 in first 4 games). Season-high 11 penalties. Josh Allen himself called it "piss poor offense". First time scoring under 30 points all season. Multiple key injuries: Matt Milano (best LB) and Damar Hamlin on IR.

More concerning? Buffalo's 0-3 ATS as big favorites this season and just 1-3 ATS when laying 4.5+ points. This team has consistently underperformed when expected to dominate.

Situational Edge

Falcons coming off bye week which means two weeks to prepare. Atlanta is home at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Falcons are 7-1 SU in recent Monday Night Football games. Both teams rank 1st and 2nd in time of possession so this game stays competitive and low-scoring. Buffalo in classic letdown/lookahead spot after division loss.

The Penix Angle

Michael Penix Jr. doesn't need to be Patrick Mahomes tonight. He just needs to not lose the game. In Week 4 before the bye, he had his best performance: 77% completion, 313 yards, 2 TDs. Against this Bills secondary that just allowed Stefon Diggs to go off for 100+ yards? He'll have opportunities.

My Take

Getting +4 at -115 is tremendous value. We're getting a full field goal plus the hook with the better defense, the better situational spot, the superior matchup for their best player, and a Bills team that's shown all year they can't blow teams out.

Buffalo might win, but I need to see them prove they can cover big numbers before I lay this kind of chalk on the road after a sloppy primetime loss.

For what it's worth, this line opened Bills -5.5 and has dropped despite heavy public money on Buffalo. That tells you everything.

Give me the home dog with revenge, rest, and the right matchups.

More than anything, I can just feel this one. Don't ask me how or why but I do.

Gimme the Falcons +4  -115  (MAX BET HAMMER POY)

Atl D has faced shit QBs so the stats are inflated 

Gl 

You could well be right, but I will give you an alternative viewpoint. 

Despite giving up a lot of yards, especially on the ground, it is part of the Buffalo game plan. Theyve been like this for years under McDerms. They give up massive yardage between the 20s and then buckle down in the red zone. In their past 4 games they gave up 10, 21, 19, and 23. They'll let Bijan rack up yards, but once they get in the red zone they hold them to a field goal. The Bills offense is elite, if they dont allow long scores and hold opponents to field goals while they cash in TDs they win. 

I dont know about Atlantas defense being all that. Other than limiting Baker in week 1, they faced hopeless JJ McCarthy, then gave up 30 to Bryce Young and 27 to Mariota. I dont know if Atlanta can score enough to cover. Its hard to hold the Bills under 30. 

Matt Milano is great, but the guy plays 3 games a year if youre lucky, theyve always been without him. 

You are right, traditionally these Bills never cover big numbers. But I'd have to be getting 6 with Atlanta here to feel good about taking them.

@JimmyGape

 Great context & writeup. Let me offer an alternate perspective:

Relative performance.

Bills score .53 Points Per Play against defenses that give up.48 Points Per Play for a Relative Performance of 104.5%

Falcons:  .32 PPP versus a schedule of .38 PPP for a Relative Performance of 84.8%

Bills D: .356 versus a schedule of .402 for a RP of 97.9%

Faalcons D: .47 versus .43 105.7%

So, Bills have been outperforming their opponents compared to Atlanta

Fade teams off a home loss by 3 or less vs division opponent if facing non-conference opponent on road.

Should have covered yesterday with Ravens over Rams but the Ravens are so god awful. They outplayed them and had a million chances and still blew it

Very interesting  

@JimmyGape

 Seeing that the word San and or Frisco is not mentioned at all on this write up of yours JG I may have to give this Atlanta write up and play very deep consideration as a valid play tonight......Good luck Bud 

All points are valid and thank you for your research and inputs JG! I agree. I think +4.5 is a premium, I can see this game as a low scoring with the defenses and errors from both teams. Either team can win by a fg or less. 23-20 Bills. Good luck!

I also like the bears tonight. I think that Jayden Williams luck is not enough to cover the spread. What do you think with the Redskins and the Bears?

POY against one of the best teams in the NFL? Not saying it won't hit, but BOL!

Are they though? Beat Ravens, Dolphins, Saints and Jets. May be the 4 worst teams in the NFL. Needed a miracle comeback at home to beat Ravens. Didn't cover vs Dolphins and Saints. Only decent teram they played beat them at home.

Teams that buffalo beat is a combined 3-21

Who is Jayden Williams? 

Good luck with the Falcons inept QB. Penis is not good and he has some mechanical issues with his throwing motion to me and needs way more development.....

If the Bills score even close to their average (29.2 PPG) how are the birds going to match it? The beaks are averaging 19 PPG. Let's just say that the birdos can hold the Bills to just under that number, say around 24, how does the 4 cover in a scenario where the birds obtain their average and the Bills under perform. Your magic number for the birds to cover is about 25 points, if the Bills can get to 28 on a very average defense.

Here are the stats for the beakers:

PPG 19.0

Points allowed 21.5

League ranking points for 27th

League ranking points against 16

How are the beaks going to spy Allen and his ability to scramble and run? Who does that leave open if they do? Bills have one of the most elite offensive lines in the league. 

If the birdos decide to go more zone coverage tonight than man coverage, then this is going to put a lot of pressure on their front 4 to get to Allen with a good pass rush to hurry him, however let's say they do, can they contain the scrambling? This is key...we saw what the Pats did, and they schemed Allen perfectly last week...If the flying squirrels cannot keep Allen in the pocket, I'm not sure they are fast enough or talented enough to contain Allen when he becomes mobile. Allen's mobility is always a key factor to any game the Bills are in. If they can though, then this game is low scoring and right up the beaks alley as I do not see them winning a shootout. 

Handing the Bills consecutive losses is not easy. Since 2020, the Bills have gone 17-5 in games following a loss. Even if you don't think that the Falcons can win the game, but cover the number, 4-5 is a weak number for an explosive offense who was held in check last week. Odds of that happening in consecutive games seems like a stretch, but is possible. Just not sure the bird peckers match up well at key positions here, and with a Bills team reeling from a loss at home to the Pats. 

You think 4 is a big number? That is interesting in itself....

Good luck on your play, but I will be heavily against for reasons stated above and more....anything is possible in this friggen league, so you have that going for you...

I don't know it but I know there's a stat of penix vs playoffs teams it's pretty bad...like 1-8 or something.

Also he hasn't won a game where the opposing team scores more than 15

@Unplug

 sir ATL beat the commanders 34-27 in their last game? what u talkin bout

@Yanasaur

 Why would bills open as -4.5 and now @ -3.5.

No one needs convincing to take the bills.

Even @ -4.5 most would still side with bills.  Your telling me the line drop a full point since?

Easy bet would be bills + commanders moneyline.

Seems to me bills might lose.