Patriots/Falcons - Not so fast, my friend

Your average bettor is looking at how shitty the Dolphins were last night and they smoked the Falcons last week.  Now the Patriots are only favored by -5/-5.5 this week at home.  Gimme the Patriots all day.    

Not so fast my friend.  Gimme the Falcons +5/5. 

@ProgPool

 I felt that way last week. Good luck, but there’s something going on in Foxborough. 

Smoked the Falcons with Cousins and no London ...now the avearge bettor is thinking how Penix is back and the Falcons smoked Buffalo. So gimme the Falcons ?

No Rhamondre hurts NE a lot.  Great blocker and back.  

@Wizerguy

The average better looks to three weeks ago and not the last two consecutive weeks?

Falcons flying out to Berlin after this, but the line is certainly dropping a bit which is interesting...

+12.5 in teaser. Rock bottom mkt perception,valuation. Possibly. Recency bias 

Something ain't right with this Falcons team.  I just can't bring myself to say, "Oh Boy, Pennix is back this week."  I'm done betting on Atlanta.  It's the Pats or a skip for me.

And on the flip side, the Pats are a team that I just don't want to fuck with. Vrabel has them believing. 

The Falcons +5.5 might be the correct # to play. For me it's a pass

Never any certainty, only probabilities.  I am willing to speculate,small, Falcons surprise.  Covering or better, this wide margin.

You’re chasing loser not so fast

Pats ML.   Buffalo Under 54 is my POD.   Good Luck sir. 

    Let me ask you some questions. Does the average bettor know that Atlanta has a -7 true point differential last 3 road games vs a 20 AOPR and cant score more than 10 pure points per game in that road series. Does the average bettor know that New England has +5.5 TPD in its last 3 home gms vs their AOPR and has a 13 pure point average PA ( defense).