No stone left unturned Tampa Bay vs New England

Bye Week Bucs Ready to Expose New England's Flaws

Let's talk about the elephant in the room that nobody wants to address: the New England Patriots have been playing with house money all season, and the bill is about to come due in Tampa Bay.

Yes, Drake Maye is having a phenomenal sophomore season. The kid leads the NFL with a 74.1% completion rate, has 17 touchdown passes, and sits second in MVP odds behind Josh Allen. He's been absolutely electric, and the Patriots have rattled off six straight wins to improve to 7-2. Everything looks great on paper, right?

Here's the problem: New England has faced the easiest schedule of any NFL team in 50 years. Their opponents have a combined .357 winning percentage. Think about that for a second. The Patriots have been beating up on bad teams while Maye puts up video game numbers, but what happens when they face a well-coached defense coming off a bye week?

We're about to find out.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers didn't just get a rest during their Week 9 bye. They got 14 days to study film, scheme up creative pressure packages, and figure out how to attack a Patriots offensive line that ranks 31st in pass block win rate. Let that sink in. Thirty-first in the entire league.

New England allows pressure on 41.4% of dropbacks, which also ranks 31st. They have the fourth-highest unblocked pressure rate in football at 8.6%, meaning defenders are regularly coming through clean without anyone even touching them. Maye has been sacked six times in back-to-back games, and now he's walking into Raymond James Stadium to face a Buccaneers defense that ranks third in the NFL in pressure rate.

Todd Bowles is one of the most aggressive defensive minds in football, and he's had two full weeks to dial up exotic blitz packages against a porous offensive line. The Patriots have been living on Maye's ability to extend plays and make magic happen under duress, but that well runs dry when you're facing a defense that ranks seventh in DVOA and third in EPA.

Here's an even more concerning stat for Patriots backers: Tampa Bay's defense has allowed a passer rating of just 53.3 on first-read passes since Week 6, second-best in the NFL. Maye thrives on those quick-game concepts, but the Bucs have been taking them away better than almost anyone.

The other side of this coin might be even more damning for New England. Everyone's been celebrating this Patriots defense, but let's look at what they've actually done.

The Patriots rank 31st in defensive DVOA in the first half of games. Thirty-first! They're 23rd in EPA per play and 31st in success rate before halftime. They're 30th against the pass in first-half situations. This is a defense that consistently gets punched in the mouth early and has to spend the entire second half climbing out of holes.

Want to know what else? When you adjust for strength of schedule (you know, that historically easy slate they've faced) the Patriots rank 25th in defensive DVOA overall. The advanced metrics that account for opponent quality expose this defense for what it really is: beneficiaries of a soft schedule who look elite in the box score but crumble against competent offenses.

Baker Mayfield isn't going to be intimidated by this Patriots defense. He's seen everything, and he's playing with confidence after the bye week. Mayfield ranks ninth in the league in completions on throws 20+ yards downfield, and guess who ranks 29th in deep completions allowed? That's right. New England.

The matchup gets even better for Tampa Bay when you consider that the Patriots rank 26th in receptions allowed per game. Mayfield loves to spread the ball around, and even without Chris Godwin (out with a fibula injury) and Bucky Irving (out with foot/shoulder issues), the Bucs have enough weapons to exploit this secondary.

The Injury Factor Cuts Both Ways

Everyone's talking about Tampa Bay's injury losses, and yes, losing Bucky Irving hurts. He's been a dynamic dual-threat back with 237 rushing yards and 193 receiving yards. But let's be real. Rachaad White is a capable NFL running back who's already rushed for 287 yards and four touchdowns this season with 21 receptions. This isn't some dramatic downgrade.

The Patriots, meanwhile, are without two of their most important offensive weapons. Kayshon Boutte leads the team with five touchdown receptions and sits second in receiving yards with 431. He's out with a hamstring injury. Rhamondre Stevenson, their leading rusher with 279 yards, is out for the second straight week with a toe injury.

New England's offense will be running through rookie TreVeyon Henderson and recent call-up Terrell Jennings, who combined for 131 yards on 30 touches last week. That's serviceable against the Atlanta Falcons. Against Todd Bowles' defense coming off a bye? Good luck.

Here's something else that should concern Patriots backers: Tampa Bay is playing at home in front of their fans after a bye week. Raymond James Stadium is a legitimate home-field advantage, and the Buccaneers are 6-2 overall with a 2-1 home record.

Yes, the Patriots are 4-0 on the road this season, but let's examine that road schedule for a second. They beat Miami (backup quarterback situation), Pittsburgh (low-scoring slugfest they won 25-10), Buffalo (great win, I'll give them that one), and New Orleans (who's been a mess all year). That Buffalo win in Week 5 is literally their only quality road victory, and it came down to a 52-yard field goal in the final seconds.

This is different. This is a Buccaneers team that's 6-2 for a reason, even if their advanced metrics haven't quite caught up to their record. Tampa Bay has genuine statement wins on their ledger this season, and they're getting an extra week to prepare for a Patriots team they've now had plenty of time to study.

Let's not forget that Baker Mayfield has been here before. He's been doubted, counted out, and disrespected throughout his career. He revived his career in Tampa Bay, and he's not about to let some hot rookie waltz into his building and steal his spotlight.

Mayfield has been highly efficient when he's kept clean and working from a clean pocket, posting a 96.2 passer rating in those situations. The Buccaneers' offensive line is getting healthier too. Right tackle Luke Goedeke is returning after missing seven weeks on injured reserve. Getting him back provides a boost to the pass protection and run blocking.

The Bucs' passing offense ranks 15th in DVOA this season, and they've shown they can put up points when needed. Even with Irving out, offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard has had two weeks to script the perfect game plan to attack a Patriots defense that struggles early in games.

Why the Line Movement Doesn't Scare Me

I know what you're thinking: "But the line moved from Buccaneers -4.5 to -2.5! That's two full points toward the Patriots!"

Here's the thing. Line movement tells us where the money is going, not necessarily where the value is. The Patriots have been the feel-good story of the NFL season. Drake Maye is the shiny new toy, and bettors love backing the hot team with the rising star quarterback. That's why money has come in on New England.

But the Buccaneers are still favored for a reason. The books and the sharp bettors who set these lines know that Tampa Bay has tangible advantages in this matchup. They're at home, they're coming off a bye, they have the better defense by a mile, and they have two weeks of preparation.

Sometimes the line moves because of public perception and narrative, not because the underdog is actually the better play. This feels like one of those times.

This game comes down to one simple reality: the Patriots' offensive line is going to get destroyed by Tampa Bay's pass rush, and Maye is going to spend all afternoon running for his life. New England's defense is going to get exposed early (as they do every single week), and this time they won't be able to recover because they're not playing the Panthers or the Titans.

Baker Mayfield is going to carve up this secondary, Rachaad White is going to find running room against a Patriots run defense that has struggled all season, and the Buccaneers are going to control this game from start to finish.

The Patriots' Cinderella season hits its first major speed bump on Sunday afternoon in Tampa. Todd Bowles has had two weeks to prepare, and he's going to show the NFL that Drake Maye and the Patriots aren't ready for prime time just yet.

The Buccaneers defense ranks seventh in DVOA and third in EPA for a reason. They're getting Antoine Winfield Jr. and Tykee Smith playing at elite levels in the secondary. The pass rush ranks third in pressure rate. This unit is built to disrupt young quarterbacks, and they've had 14 days to figure out how to do exactly that to Maye.

On the other side, even without Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay has enough offensive firepower to exploit a Patriots defense that ranks 31st in first-half DVOA. Mayfield knows how to take advantage of soft coverage, and New England has been getting torched through the air all season when you adjust for competition level.

This is where the Patriots' schedule finally catches up to them. This is where we see if Drake Maye can handle a legitimate defense with NFL-caliber athletes flying around him. This is where we find out if New England's 7-2 record is real or just a mirage built on the backs of bad football teams.

I'm betting it's the latter.

Gimme the Bucs -2.5

I agree and appreciate the write-ups. Best of luck.

@JimmyGape

 I know what you're thinking: "But the line moved from Buccaneers -4.5 to -2.5! That's two full points toward the Patriots!"

Huh? 

The line has been -2.5 for this game since Jesus was born

Maybe before they developed as a strong team before week one with a future game line but this line has been BUCS -2.5 for weeks now...Come on Jimmy!

You are amongst several others on the BUCS but I do believe many will be in for a surprise with the end result after this game.

Good luck on your plays today