NFL Week Three Ponderings

Been a frustrating first two weeks of the season. I'm 2-4 on the year, but would be 4-2 if the Bears hadn't blown a 17-6 4th quarter lead against the Vikings in Week One, and if the Cardinals hadn't blown a 27-3 4th quarter lead against the Panthers in Week Two! But as Dandy Don Meredith once said, "If ifs and buts were candy and nuts we'd all have a merry Christmas." Moving on ......

Thursday, Sept. 18th

BILLS -11' vs. Dolphins - Miami hasn't won in Buffalo since 2016, and has lost 13 of the last 14 meetings. Their defense is a sieve, having allowed scores on 13 of opponents' 15 possessions (not counting kneel downs). They also have a long injury list, and are especially banged up along the offensive line and defensive backfield. Buffalo will be without DT Ed Oliver and LB Matt Milano, and those are significant absences, but their Josh Allen led offense is healthy and seemingly unstoppable vs. a defense that can't stop a nosebleed. BUT, this is the NFL where anything can happen. I'd rather have a root canal than lay double digits in this league, so even though it feels like the Bills should win by at least two TDs, I'm letting this one go. 

@Boisestateand8

 Bills last few years have also been horrible laying double digits. As bad as Miami is, it's Thursday and its easy to see the Bills giving a ho hum lazy effort. 

I can actually see this game easily going under the total. Its a pretty high total and if the offenses are lazy its easy to see this game going 27-17 Bills

@Yanasaur

Yeah, under Sean McDermott the Bills are 8-13-2 ATS as double digit chalk, including 1-10 ATS in their last 11 tries, and it's a short week. But they've also scored at least 30 points in seven of the last eight meetings in Buffalo, and against that defense it looks like more of the same. The question is can Miami score 20 or better? I think they'll need to if they're gonna stay within the number. Actually, the best bet here might be to take the Bills OVER their team total, but I'm certainly not an authority on totals.

You are not going to see a lazy effort out of the Bills tonight. 

The mostly poor performance and incredibly close call in their home opener just eleven days ago made sure of that.

Anyone remember that farce of an NFL game that was played in Buffalo four years ago on a Monday night when the Bills hosted the Patriots? The Patriots pulled off a significant 14-10 upset despite starter Mac Jones attempting just 3 passes! Josh Allen and the Bills pushed forward with an attempt at a passing game, but the wailing winds just wouldn't allow it.  Since that night, the Bills are 6-0 in their next regular season home game if their previous regular season home game was a loss OR a narrow win by 3 points or less. The margins of victory were 17, 8, 12, 26, 9, and 26 points. They covered the spread in 5 of those wins. The only miss was a 20-12 win over the Jets, a home game that was played a whole month after their 33-30 overtime home loss to the Vikings in 2022.

And the Bills won by one little point just eleven days ago after a furious rally in the final four minutes bailed them out of an unimpressive 56 minutes that preceded it. I'll be shocked if I see a nonchalant effort from the Bills tonight. Given how these Bills over the last few years seem to react at home after having been beaten or seriously threatened in their previous home game, I'd say the Bills won't be fooling around with these dysfunctional Dolphins.

I'm not letting it go. I'm laying the 11 as well as using the Bills in all 5 of my Circa Survivor entries and for my Grandissimo entry that I am sharing with a friend who suggested entering that new contest.

Miami's Season is on the line and they keep it close and or pull off the upset!

@MrBator

 BOL! It's probably a winner. Hopefully they lock the back door.  I'm on Seattle for my eliminator pick. 

And THIS is why I never lay double digits in the NFL! 

The oddsmakers made a fool out of me by lowering the line (in certain sportsbooks anyway) to -11, and that was enough to luyre me in and lay claim to my $8,400. Oh well. Wrong side all the way despite ultimately losing by one point. I should feel fortunate that the Bills benefitted from a roughing the kicker call, because without that this could easily have ended 24-21 in favor of the Dolphins.

@MrBator

 Who else do you like this week Bator? Tough card with so many injuries. I kinda think the Chargers hit the trifecta this week, with their third AFC West win in a row. Also, I'm not sure the Jags should be favored over the Texans, and I've got my eye on the Jets. I don't think they lose anything with Tyrod Taylor starting in place of Justin Fields, and the Bucs are coming off a Monday night road win. Still digging.

Early Sunday games

Falcons -5' at PANTHERS - Atlanta's pass rush is much improved from a year ago. They racked up six sacks at Minnesota last week, and face a Carolina team missing two starters on their offensive line. The Panthers run defense is of the swiss cheese variety. They're allowing over five yards per rush over the past two seasons, and will face a stiff challenge from Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. For what it's worth, the Blact Cats are on a 5-0 ATS run as a home dog.

Packers -8' at BROWNS - Green Bay will have had three extra days to prep for a top notch Browns defense that's allowed the fewest yards in the league (191.5 YPG). In fact, despite being 0-2, the Browns have outgained both of their first two opponents by a combined 267 yards, as turnovers and special teams breakdowns have plagued them. If they can play clean they have a chance here, but I'm not betting on it. The Packers are the best team in the NFC, and I won't step in front of them here.

JAGUARS -1' vs. Texans - Houston is in an early must win situation, but their revamped offensive line has allowed C.J. Stroud to be sacked six times thus far. The Jags are leading the NFL in rushing at 169.5 yards a game, and will test a Texans defense that allowed 169 yards to Tampa on Monday night. 

VIKINGS -3 vs. Bengals - This is a battle of backup QBs. Cincy's Jake Browning has completed 71.5% of his passes in seven starts, but last week he threw three interceptions. Minny's Carson Wentz just joined the team a few weeks ago and may not have a firm grasp of the offense. Tough call in this one.

Steelers -1' at PATRIOTS - Pittsburgh's defense has been very un-Steeler like, and they're missing three, maybe four starters for this one. They're giving up nearly 150 yards a game on the ground (4.4 YPR), and they're rushing for less than 63 (3.0). That's a bad combination. But Aaron Rodgers should be able to rack up some yardage against a Pats pass defense that's ranked last in the NFL, giving up 338.5 YPG.

EAGLES -3' vs. Rams - This is the second straight long road trip and early start time for the Rams, who are seeking revenge for two losses a year ago, 37-20 in the regular season and 28-22 in the playoffs. In order to win this one though they'll have to do a better job of stopping Eagles RB Saquon Barkley, who rushed for a combined 460 yards in those two games.

BUCCANEERS -6' vs. Jets - QB Justin Fields is out with a concussion, but I don't think the Jets lose anything with backup Tyrod Taylor. This is a bad spot for the Bucs, off a 20-17 win at Atlanta in Week One, and a 20-19 win at Houston on Monday night. On a short week, and being down three starters on the offensive line, AND, with the Super Bowl champion Eagles on deck, the Flyboys could surprise here. 

Colts -4' at TITANS - Indy's Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL in rushing with 236 yards (5.5 YPR), while Tennessee is giving up 150 a game (5.5). The Colts have been one of the early surprises of the young season, and new QB Daniel Jones is a big reason for that, but the one thing they haven't done well is rush the passer. That could change in this game. Titans rookie QB Cam Ward has already been sacked 11 times in just two games! 

REDSKINS -3 vs. Raiders - Huge rest advantage for the 'Skins, having played last Thursday with the Raiders off a Monday night game. QB Marcus Mariota is in for injured Jayden Daniels, and Washington will also be without starting RB Austin Ekeler, who was lost for the season. The Raiders need to get their run game going. 

@Boisestateand8

Steelers are one dimensional and the only way they win this game is thru the air but, will Rodgers have time in the pocket or will he be only able to throw checkdowns to Warren and Gainwell all game?

Will those generate enough points to win the game? Also, the Steelers can't stop the run and Stevenson and Henderson might have big games on the ground. If the game is allowed to unfold without ref interference, I see the Pats taking this one. 

Much respect. Packers or falcons will lose outright 

GL 

Late Sunday games

CHARGERS -3 vs. Broncos - After opening the season with wins over division rivals Kansas City and Las Vegas, the Chargers are going for the trifecta here. Khalil Mack's injury hurts, but QB Justin Herbert is looking like an MVP candidate, completing 72% of his passes for 560 yards and five TDs. Meanwhile, Denver's Bo Nix seems to be undergoing a bit of a sophomore slump. He's thrown four TD passes, but he's been picked off three times. The Bolts won both meetings a year ago by a TD, and they look like the better team here. 

SEAHAWKS -7 vs. Saints - New Orleans QB Spencer Rattler is looking for his first win as a starter after eight tries. He hasn't played that bad under first time HC Kellen Moore. Seattle has a banged up secondary, but they're second in the league with four picks. Tough call. 

Cowboys -1' at BEARS - This one should be a track meet. Dallas is allowing 404 yards a game, 301 through the air. Chicago is allowing 382.5 yards a game, and opposing QBs are completing 75% of their passes with a 136.9 passer rating. The two teams combined gave up 89 points last week. The punters might not even dress for this one.

49ERS -2' vs. Cardinals - Arizona's top three cornerbacks are hurt. The Niners are missing QB Brock Purdy and much of their receiving corps. Their defense has carried them to a 2-0 start, and will have to come up big again. The Cardinals are also 2-0, and actually swept the series a year ago. This one could go either way. 

Tough slate this week. BOL

GL