EAGLES -8' vs. Cowboys - Line moved up from the opener of -7 , no doubt because of the Micah Parsons trade. Philly had massive turnover on the defensive side of the ball and will have five new starters, but this is still a pretty good unit. Meanwhile, there's plenty of "D" in Dallas. That is "D" as in drama and dysfunction. Defense is another story. It'll be interesting to see how the Eagles offense responds with former OC Kellen Moore now in New Orleans, but they should be able click against this defense. Whether the Cowboys can keep up remains to be seen. Threat of a back door cover will keep me off this one.
Friday, Sept. 5th
Chiefs -3 vs. Chargers at Sao Paulo - Super Bowl losers are historically a risky bet the following season, and the Chiefs had it all working for them last season going 12-0 in one score games, including both meetings with the Bolts. Fact is they weren't as good as their 17-3 record would suggest, as they were just 12-8 ITS (in the stats), and were badly exposed in the Super Bowl. Having said that, the Chargers have lost seven straight meetings with K.C. and I have some questions about their defensive line, especially in the middle now that NT Poona Ford is now a Ram. Pass.
EAGLES -8' vs. Cowboys - Line moved up from the opener of -7 , no doubt because of the Micah Parsons trade. Philly had massive turnover on the defensive side of the ball and will have five new starters, but this is still a pretty good unit. Meanwhile, there's plenty of "D" in Dallas. That is "D" as in drama and dysfunction. Defense is another story. It'll be interesting to see how the Eagles offense responds with former OC Kellen Moore now in New Orleans, but they should be able click against this defense. Whether the Cowboys can keep up remains to be seen. Threat of a back door cover will keep me off this one.
Friday, Sept. 5th
Chiefs -3 vs. Chargers at Sao Paulo - Super Bowl losers are historically a risky bet the following season, and the Chiefs had it all working for them last season going 12-0 in one score games, including both meetings with the Bolts. Fact is they weren't as good as their 17-3 record would suggest, as they were just 12-8 ITS (in the stats), and were badly exposed in the Super Bowl. Having said that, the Chargers have lost seven straight meetings with K.C. and I have some questions about their defensive line, especially in the middle now that NT Poona Ford is now a Ram. Pass.
Buccaneers -1' at FALCONS - Tampa QBBaker Mayfield had a career year last season, but how will he do this year with his OC, Liam Coen, now HC at J'ville? Falcons spent the off-season trying to improve their 31st ranked pass rush, and catch a break with Bucs LT Tristan Wirfs out for this game.
Bengals -5' at BROWNS - Under Zac Taylor, Cincy is 1-11 SU in its' first two games of the season, including 0-6 as a pick or favorite, and before last season's series sweep the Browns had won six straight meetings at home. The Bengals are determined to start fast this year, but is a change in coordinators enough to fix their defense? And can their offensive line, which has finished #30, #30, #27 and #32 in pass block win rate, have any success vs. the best defensive line in the NFL? Myles Garrett missed practice a couple days ago, but has been cleared to play, and he's been a nightmare for Joe Burrows over the years. It's also worth noting that NFL division home dogs are 24-7 ATS in Week One. This feels like a 20-17 kind of game.
COLTS -1 vs. Dolphins - Miami has a long injury list, but at least Tua Tagovailoa is healthy....for now. Indy is a putrid 2-14-1 SU and 2-15 ATS in season openers, including 0-9 ATS as a pick or favorite.
JAGUARS -3' vs. Panthers - Baker Mayfield's loss may be Trevor Lawrence's gain, if new HC Liam Coen is able to turn around Lawrence's career. Early returns are promising as Lawrence has looked like a different QB this off-season, and he's healthy after missing seven games a year ago. Both of these teams overhauled their defenses after finishing in the bottom of the NFL last season. Carolina's "D" was historically bad, especially against the run where they allowed over 3000 yards at 5.2 yards a clip. The wild card in this game is dynamic rookie Travis Hunter who will see action on both sides of the ball. Leaning Jaguars here, but I liked it better at -3.
Buccaneers -1' at FALCONS - Tampa QBBaker Mayfield had a career year last season, but how will he do this year with his OC, Liam Coen, now HC at J'ville? Falcons spent the off-season trying to improve their 31st ranked pass rush, and catch a break with Bucs LT Tristan Wirfs out for this game.
Bengals -5' at BROWNS - Under Zac Taylor, Cincy is 1-11 SU in its' first two games of the season, including 0-6 as a pick or favorite, and before last season's series sweep the Browns had won six straight meetings at home. The Bengals are determined to start fast this year, but is a change in coordinators enough to fix their defense? And can their offensive line, which has finished #30, #30, #27 and #32 in pass block win rate, have any success vs. the best defensive line in the NFL? Myles Garrett missed practice a couple days ago, but has been cleared to play, and he's been a nightmare for Joe Burrows over the years. It's also worth noting that NFL division home dogs are 24-7 ATS in Week One. This feels like a 20-17 kind of game.
COLTS -1 vs. Dolphins - Miami has a long injury list, but at least Tua Tagovailoa is healthy....for now. Indy is a putrid 2-14-1 SU and 2-15 ATS in season openers, including 0-9 ATS as a pick or favorite.
JAGUARS -3' vs. Panthers - Baker Mayfield's loss may be Trevor Lawrence's gain, if new HC Liam Coen is able to turn around Lawrence's career. Early returns are promising as Lawrence has looked like a different QB this off-season, and he's healthy after missing seven games a year ago. Both of these teams overhauled their defenses after finishing in the bottom of the NFL last season. Carolina's "D" was historically bad, especially against the run where they allowed over 3000 yards at 5.2 yards a clip. The wild card in this game is dynamic rookie Travis Hunter who will see action on both sides of the ball. Leaning Jaguars here, but I liked it better at -3.
PATRIOTS -2' vs. Raiders - Both teams finished last in their respective divisions at 4-13, both teams have new coaches, and both teams look to be much improved over last season. Pete Carroll has given Vegas fans a transfusion of enthusiasm. They should have better QB play with Geno Smith, and rookie RB Ashton Jeanty addresses one of their biggest weaknesses from last season. As for the Pats, Mike Vrabel overhauled the roster, especially on the offensive line and the defensive front seven. If anything they're tougher. Tough call here, but the slightest of leans to the Silver and Black.
Cardinals -6' at SAINTS - I have no idea what to expect from the Saints under first time HC Kellen Moore. I'll be curious to see what kind of impact he has on QB Spencer Rattler. I do know that when everybody is telling you how bad you're gonna suck it can fire up a locker room. The Cards made big improvements to their defensive personnel but are running it back on offense behind QB Kyler Murray. I prefer backing Arizona as a dog rather than as chalk, given Murray's inconsistency. Might actually play this if it goes to +7 but right now it's just a slight lean to New Orleans.
Steelers -2' at JETS - What does 42 year old Aaron Rodgers have left in the tank? That's the burning question for Pittsburgh. Aaron Glenn is the Jets new first time head coach, and he has three unproven coordinators. Ex Steeler Justin Fields replaces Rodgers at QB in an interesting twist.
REDSKINS -6 vs. Giants - Russell Wilson takes over at QB for the G- men, who weren't as bad as they looked a season ago. 'Skins went from 4-13 in '23 to 14-6 a year ago, and had a lot of things go right. Regression? More than likely, and the Giants look to be improved. I don't like this line though. If it was +7 I'd be leaning dog here, but it's not so I'm not. Pass.
PATRIOTS -2' vs. Raiders - Both teams finished last in their respective divisions at 4-13, both teams have new coaches, and both teams look to be much improved over last season. Pete Carroll has given Vegas fans a transfusion of enthusiasm. They should have better QB play with Geno Smith, and rookie RB Ashton Jeanty addresses one of their biggest weaknesses from last season. As for the Pats, Mike Vrabel overhauled the roster, especially on the offensive line and the defensive front seven. If anything they're tougher. Tough call here, but the slightest of leans to the Silver and Black.
Cardinals -6' at SAINTS - I have no idea what to expect from the Saints under first time HC Kellen Moore. I'll be curious to see what kind of impact he has on QB Spencer Rattler. I do know that when everybody is telling you how bad you're gonna suck it can fire up a locker room. The Cards made big improvements to their defensive personnel but are running it back on offense behind QB Kyler Murray. I prefer backing Arizona as a dog rather than as chalk, given Murray's inconsistency. Might actually play this if it goes to +7 but right now it's just a slight lean to New Orleans.
Steelers -2' at JETS - What does 42 year old Aaron Rodgers have left in the tank? That's the burning question for Pittsburgh. Aaron Glenn is the Jets new first time head coach, and he has three unproven coordinators. Ex Steeler Justin Fields replaces Rodgers at QB in an interesting twist.
REDSKINS -6 vs. Giants - Russell Wilson takes over at QB for the G- men, who weren't as bad as they looked a season ago. 'Skins went from 4-13 in '23 to 14-6 a year ago, and had a lot of things go right. Regression? More than likely, and the Giants look to be improved. I don't like this line though. If it was +7 I'd be leaning dog here, but it's not so I'm not. Pass.
BRONCOS -8' vs. Titans - Tennessee defense allowed just 311 yards a game last season. Only the Eagles were better. And yet the Titans allowed 460 points, eclipsed by only the Panthers and Cowboys. And while they finished a pitiful 3-14, they were 8-9 ITS! Their biggest problem was that they finished -16 in net turnovers, and QB Will Levis was the primary culprit. I don't think rookie Cam Ward can turn things completely around this season, but I think the Titans are gonna be money at the betting window. I don't like them this week, because QBs drafted first overall are 4-20-1 SU in their first career starts since 1983. Plus, he'll be going up against the NFL's best defense and on the road to boot. Denver is hoping QB Bo Nix doesn't experience a sophomore slump after leading his team to the playoffs last year. I took Denver in my eliminator pool but that's all I'm doing in this one.
49ers -1' at SEAHAWKS - Niners purged their roster of 20 players from last season, including eight starters, and the replacements aren't exactly household names. Seattle is hoping Sam Darnold can duplicate the success he had in Minnesota last season, as he takes the QB reins from Geno Smith. This is another division home dog I have an eye on, but I wouldn't be surprised if the line flips with the news of 49er RB Christian McCaffrey's injury status. If he's a no go I see Seattle being favored here.
PACKERS -2' vs. Lions - Detroit kept their roster intact during the off-season, but lost seven assistant coaches, including both coordinators. It remains to be seen how that will play out, but the Lions have won six of the last seven meetings, including the last three at Lambeau. The Packers made the biggest trade of the year, obtaining All Pro Micah Parsons from Dallas, but now he might not even play with a back issue. And even if he does play how effective will he be? Ironically, the player they traded for Parsons, DT Kenny Clark, was a key cog in their run defense, and you better be able to stop the run when you play the Lions. Detroit has won the division each of the last two years and may be in a snit with Green Bay being favored to do so this season.
RAMS -3 vs. Texans - C.J. Stroud was sacked 52 times last season, so overhauling the offensive line was the off-season priority for Houston. They traded Pro Bowl LT Laremy Tunsil and added three new starters but the jury is still out as to whether it's any better. They have a tough task vs. a very good Rams defensive line, which added NT Poona Ford in free agency. On the other side of the ball, Matthew Stafford missed a month of training camp with a balky back, but he's healthy for this game. He too will be facing a tough defense. In fact the Texans may have the league's best secondary.
BRONCOS -8' vs. Titans - Tennessee defense allowed just 311 yards a game last season. Only the Eagles were better. And yet the Titans allowed 460 points, eclipsed by only the Panthers and Cowboys. And while they finished a pitiful 3-14, they were 8-9 ITS! Their biggest problem was that they finished -16 in net turnovers, and QB Will Levis was the primary culprit. I don't think rookie Cam Ward can turn things completely around this season, but I think the Titans are gonna be money at the betting window. I don't like them this week, because QBs drafted first overall are 4-20-1 SU in their first career starts since 1983. Plus, he'll be going up against the NFL's best defense and on the road to boot. Denver is hoping QB Bo Nix doesn't experience a sophomore slump after leading his team to the playoffs last year. I took Denver in my eliminator pool but that's all I'm doing in this one.
49ers -1' at SEAHAWKS - Niners purged their roster of 20 players from last season, including eight starters, and the replacements aren't exactly household names. Seattle is hoping Sam Darnold can duplicate the success he had in Minnesota last season, as he takes the QB reins from Geno Smith. This is another division home dog I have an eye on, but I wouldn't be surprised if the line flips with the news of 49er RB Christian McCaffrey's injury status. If he's a no go I see Seattle being favored here.
PACKERS -2' vs. Lions - Detroit kept their roster intact during the off-season, but lost seven assistant coaches, including both coordinators. It remains to be seen how that will play out, but the Lions have won six of the last seven meetings, including the last three at Lambeau. The Packers made the biggest trade of the year, obtaining All Pro Micah Parsons from Dallas, but now he might not even play with a back issue. And even if he does play how effective will he be? Ironically, the player they traded for Parsons, DT Kenny Clark, was a key cog in their run defense, and you better be able to stop the run when you play the Lions. Detroit has won the division each of the last two years and may be in a snit with Green Bay being favored to do so this season.
RAMS -3 vs. Texans - C.J. Stroud was sacked 52 times last season, so overhauling the offensive line was the off-season priority for Houston. They traded Pro Bowl LT Laremy Tunsil and added three new starters but the jury is still out as to whether it's any better. They have a tough task vs. a very good Rams defensive line, which added NT Poona Ford in free agency. On the other side of the ball, Matthew Stafford missed a month of training camp with a balky back, but he's healthy for this game. He too will be facing a tough defense. In fact the Texans may have the league's best secondary.
Haven't played anything yet. I usually wait until game day. Might be some line movement after today's college games, and when they announce the inactives tomorrow.
Haven't played anything yet. I usually wait until game day. Might be some line movement after today's college games, and when they announce the inactives tomorrow.
Ravens -1' vs. BILLS - Huge revenge game for the Ravens, who lost to the Bills in the divisional playoffs last year, 27-25. Baltimore had 143 more total yards, but had three turnovers to seal their doom. This year they return all but three starters and all three coordinators for the first time in three years. This is the best team in the NFL on paper, and it feels like it just might be their year, whether they win or lose this game. The Bills led the NFL in net turnovers at +26 and did not lose the turnover battle in a single game all year! And despite their 15-5 record the Bills were just 11-9 ITS, so they obviously had everything going for them. That kind of good fortune will be tough to duplicate this season. That doesn't necessarily mean they'll lose this game though.The Bills enjoy one of the best home field advantages in the league, and it's not often they find themselves as a home underdog. Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen. Get your popcorn.
Monday night game
Vikings -1' at BEARS - Vikes went from 7-10 in '23 to 14-4 and a playoff berth in '24, but they were only 8-10 ITS, went 8-1 in one score games and were +10 in net turnovers. That in itself screams regression, but after missing his entire rookie year with an injury, QB J.J. McCarthy will make the first start of his career in this game, as he takes over for departed Sam Darnold. Former Lions OC Ben Johnson takes over as head coach in Chicago, and the hope is that QB Caleb Williams will make major strides under his leadership. An improved offensive line will certainly help Williams, who was sacked 68 times. The Bears brought in three new starters for the line, including All Pro guard Joe Thuney. This is the fourth and final division home dog of Week One. I would only play Chicago here.
Ravens -1' vs. BILLS - Huge revenge game for the Ravens, who lost to the Bills in the divisional playoffs last year, 27-25. Baltimore had 143 more total yards, but had three turnovers to seal their doom. This year they return all but three starters and all three coordinators for the first time in three years. This is the best team in the NFL on paper, and it feels like it just might be their year, whether they win or lose this game. The Bills led the NFL in net turnovers at +26 and did not lose the turnover battle in a single game all year! And despite their 15-5 record the Bills were just 11-9 ITS, so they obviously had everything going for them. That kind of good fortune will be tough to duplicate this season. That doesn't necessarily mean they'll lose this game though.The Bills enjoy one of the best home field advantages in the league, and it's not often they find themselves as a home underdog. Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen. Get your popcorn.
Monday night game
Vikings -1' at BEARS - Vikes went from 7-10 in '23 to 14-4 and a playoff berth in '24, but they were only 8-10 ITS, went 8-1 in one score games and were +10 in net turnovers. That in itself screams regression, but after missing his entire rookie year with an injury, QB J.J. McCarthy will make the first start of his career in this game, as he takes over for departed Sam Darnold. Former Lions OC Ben Johnson takes over as head coach in Chicago, and the hope is that QB Caleb Williams will make major strides under his leadership. An improved offensive line will certainly help Williams, who was sacked 68 times. The Bears brought in three new starters for the line, including All Pro guard Joe Thuney. This is the fourth and final division home dog of Week One. I would only play Chicago here.
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