NFL Week Four Ponderings

Thursday, Sept. 26th

Seahawks -1' at CARDINALS - The line has flipped in this game. Seattle has won the last seven meetings (6-1 ATS), but they're not as good they looked in last week's 44-13 rout of New Orleans. Three huge special teams plays led to 21 points, and a 38-3 halftime lead, but they only had 36 more total yards than the Saints. Arizona is a banged up team, especially on the offensive line, and RB James Conner is out for the year. However, this presents an opportunity for second year RB Trey Benson to shine. QB Kyler Murray looks like he's hit his ceiling, and second year WR Marvin Harrison has yet to have a breakout game. Tough call in this one.

More to come.

@saigon

Don't forget Seattle is #2 defense in the league so far. 

AZ lost to them whiners is an automatic fade to me.  Whiners don't have a QB, no Nick bosa n still won. 

@Boisestateand8

BOTH teams lost to the Niners in the final minutes. I think the current line is spot on in this one. I don't see any value either way. BOL if you play it. 

@kidd22

GL 

@Fuse

Wazuuup mah man @Boisestateand8 

@Macwestie1

 Hey Mac! BOL this weekend my friend! 

Sunday, Sept. 28th - early games

Vikings -2' vs. Steelers - Game is being played in Dublin. Steelers have been outgained by well over a 100 yards in all three games despite their 2-1 start. Vikes will start Carson Wentz at QB again, in place of injured starter J.J. McCarthy.

FALCONS -2 vs. Redskins - The line has flipped in this one due to the 'Skins missing almost all of their skill players. The Falcons were embarrassed last week in Carolina, 30-0, despite outgaining the Panthers by 108 yards. 

BILLS -14' vs. Saints - New Orleans is bad, but not as bad as they looked in Seattle last week, but Buffalo should win in a breather if they're motivated.

LIONS -10 vs. Browns - Cleveland has the NFL's top defense, allowing 204.3 yards a game. If they can play clean, like they did in last week's 13-10 upset of Green Bay, Detroit could have their hands full, coming off a huge statement win at Baltimore Monday night.

TEXANS -7 vs. Titans - Tennessee has allowed an NFL worst 15 QB sacks, so it figures that Houston should be able to pressure Cam Ward into a mistake or two. This looks like it could be a get-right game for C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense.

PATRIOTS -5' vs. Panthers - Carolina is down four or five starters on offense and two on defense, and QB Bryce Young is 1-14 on the road. Plus, as mentioned above, their 30-0 rout of Atlanta was a little phony. The Pats lost at home to Pittsburgh, despite outgaining the Steelers by a whopping 166 yards. Lean to the Patriots here.

Chargers -6' at GIANTS - The Bolts go coast to coast for an early start time, off three straight wins over division rivals. Could they come up flat here? Giants have benched QB Russell Wilson and rookie Jaxson Dart gets his first start, joined in the backfield by electric rookie RB Cam Skattebo. An upset here wouldn't shock me. 

Eagles -3' at BUCCANEERS - Both teams are 3-0, winning their games by a combined 14 points (not counting Philly's blocked FG TD at the end of last week's win over the Rams), so points are a premium here. Eagles always struggle in the Florida heat and humidity, and the Bucs are 15-6 as a dog since acquiring QB Baker Mayfield. I like Tampa Bay here.

Late games

RAMS -3' vs. Colts - Second straight road trip for Indy, which has scored 103 points in their 3-0 start. The Rams are back home after blowing a 19 point lead in Philly. L.A. had two field goal tries blocked in a game they should've won. This game feels like a case of the Colts regressing and the Rams rebounding. 

I don't really have a feel for the Jaguars-49ers, Bears-Raiders, and Packers-Cowboys games. Still looking at the Ravens-Chiefs. BOL

Good stuff .............

I did see an trend ,  when the line flips from dog to favorite  fade the favorite. Has a decent record.

Since I learned this somewhat recently I think it has won ATS everything.

But lost in Seahawks/Zona game.

I would not count Falcons/Wash game, that line flipped from injuries which is to be expected.

Wow I did not know Baker has such a great dog record ATS. Good info.

I agree if Bills are motivated they could really run it up on this Saints team but you never know they could just go through the motions.

If they do win big "could be" a very good regression spot to back Saints next week. I am hoping for this.

If Texans don't get right this week, oh boy they could end up amoung the worst teams.

I think it is too early to really know but so many pushing Texans for survivor on you tube. I gave it some thought but couldn't pull the trigger as too early and we all know or should know there will always be some very unlikely surprises every year.

@theclaw

 I was one of those who took the Texans in the survival pool. More of a play against the Titans more than anything.