NFL Week 11 Plays

3* Jets +13 over PATRIOTS - Logic sez New England should roll here, but the NFL is anything BUT logical. As good as the Pats have looked this season, they have one glaring weakness, and that's keeping QB Drake Maye upright. He's been sacked 35 times so far and pressured numerous other times. The Jets are not a good team, but they've played better on the road than they have at home, and they've won their last two after an 0-7 start. One glaring stat though is their net turnover differential. They have just ONE TAKEAWAY in their first nine games, but they've given it up 11 times!  That makes me a little nervous , but this is by far the biggest spread for either team this year, and on a short week I just think it's too many points. I'm betting on Justin Fields not to suck, and that's risky business. But that's why they call it gambling. 

I like it, good luck Boise 

@Yanasaur

3* Jets +13  push

Thought I was gonna come through the back door for a while there. Oh well, better than a loss. 

3* FALCONS -3' over Panthers - Atlanta lost the earlier meeting in a 30-0 disaster, despite outgaining Carolina by 108 yards, and now they're on a four game losing streak. However, the Saints laid out the blueprint on how to beat the Panthers last week; stuff the box to stop Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard and put the game in Bryce Young's hands. That strategy held the Panthers to just 175 yards of total offense in a 17-7 loss, and Young was just 17 of 25 for 124 yards and a pick. The Falcons have more playmakers and have no business losing to a team they should beat by at least a TD.

More later.

-3 sounds nice.   My line is -3.5 -120 

3' is the same as 3.5. We've got the same line. Good luck to us both! 

adding

4* BROWNS +7' Ravens - Baltimore is on its' third straight road game, and is 3-0 SU and ATS since their bye, but Lamar Jackson has a gimpy knee and will be facing the best defensive line in football. Myles Garrett leads the NFL with 17 tackles for loss and is tied for the lead in sacks with 11. The Browns can't buy a win on the road but they're 3-0 ATS at home, with an outright win over the Packers. In the earlier meeting in Baltimore, the Ravens scored 21 points off two turnovers and a blocked punt in a 41-17 rout, but were outgained by 81 yards. If the Browns can play clean in this one they should be able to at least keep it close, and an outright win wouldn't shock me.

Leans on the Cardinals and Broncos, but Arizona will be missing at least six starters against the 49ers, who get Brock Purdy back, and Denver catches KC off a bye week, and I haven't been impressed with Bo Nix this season.

The Falcons need to give Raheem Morris his walking papers. Five game losing streak, and getting swept by the Panthers doesn't cut it, especially after blowing a 21-7 first half lead, and a 24-19 lead late to cost me my cover. Effing loser! 

3* Lions +2' over EAGLES - Detroit has some guys banged up, but they're 10-5 ATS as a road dog since 2022, and I'm not sold on the Eagles' offense this year.