NFL Week 10 Ponderings

Here are the current lines with home teams in CAPS

Thursday, Nov. 6th

BRONCOS -9' Raiders - I hate laying big numbers, especially in the NFL, but it's hard to see the Raiders staying within two TDs here. A failed two point conversion in overtime vs. Jacksonville dropped them to 2-6 on the season, and since 2000, NFL teams off an OT loss are just 3-19 ATS on the road in Thursday night games. Geno Smith has been an interception waiting to happen this season (11 so far) and will be facing the NFL's best pass rush (40 sacks). I don't get why Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly haven't attempted to establish the run game more with Ashton Jeanty, and I'm still trying to figure out how the hell they beat the Patriots in the season opener! Since that game, their only win was over equally woeful Tennessee. Their last three road encounters (Redskins, Colts and Chiefs) have been blowout disasters, and in their last three home games against bad defenses (Bengals, Giants and Cowboys), Denver is averaging 35 points a game. This just in: Vegas has a bad defense.

I'll have the rest of the slate up in a day or two. All comments, thoughts and insights are welcome.

@Boisestateand8

 Vegas probably has the worst Olines in the NFL. Miller being out is a huge loss. 

Love your writeups just popped in to say thanks! 

@thehuntman  BOL brother!

Sunday, Nov. 9th - early games

Colts -6' Falcons (in Berlin)- The Falcons are allowing just 282.5 total yards a game, but are giving up 124.4 on the ground (4.4 YPR). Colts RB Jonathan Taylor might run for a few here, but QB Daniel Jones has to shake off his worst outing of the season in a 27-20 loss at Pittsburgh. Indy went all in before the trade deadline, picking up All Pro CB Sauce Gardner from the Jets. I hate these international games.

PANTHERS -5' Saints - The Saints were blasted by the Rams last week, 34-10, in rookie QB Tyler Shough's first start, while the Panthers shocked the Packers in Green Bay, 16-13, as a 13' point dog. There's value in this line if you have the cajones to play New Orleans. I don't so I won't. 

BEARS -4' Giants - The G-men have now allowed 33 points or more in three straight games, and are allowing an NFL worst 5.5 yards per rush. That's a bad omen facing the Bears' second ranked rush offense (144.4 yards per game, 4.9 YPR). Chicago has their own issues on defense though so tread lightly.

Jaguars -1' TEXANS - I get that QB C.J. Stroud is out for the Texans, and that backup Davis Mills was ineffective when he entered the game in last week's 18-15 loss to Denver, but Houston has the NFL's best defense, allowing just 267.4 yards (89.9 on the ground) and 15.1 points a game! Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has a pathetic 79.7 passer rating and a banged up receiver corps. Jacksonville won the earlier meeting, 17-10, in Week Three, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Texans return the favor here, with the Jags on the road for the second straight week. Points will be hard to come by in this one.

Bills -9 DOLPHINS - Buffalo is off their best effort of the season, a 28-21 win over the Chiefs, while Miami lost at home to Baltimore, 28-6, last Thursday. Bills QB Josh Allen has owned this series, winning 14 of 16 career starts, although both losses occured in Miami. The Dolphins are a mistake prone team, as evidenced by Tua Tagovailoa's league leading 11 interceptions. Still, I have no interest in laying this many, especially on the road. The Bills won the earlier meeting, 31-21.

Ravens -3' VIKINGS - The Ravens have allowed just 39 points in their last three games, including last Thursday's 28-6 domination in Miami. QB Lamar Jackson has an NFL best 136.7 passer rating, and is 24-3 vs. the NFC. The Vikes pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season last week, a 27-24 shocker at Detroit. Tough call.

Browns -2' JETS - Both teams are off a bye. The Browns are 3-9-1 ATS as road chalk under Kevin Stefanski, and have lost 13 straight away games (1-12 ATS)! The Flyboys will try to win their second straight game after an 0-7 start, but what's the mindset of this team in the locker room, after the fire sale this week that saw them unload CB Sauce Gardner and DT Quinnen Williams? One thing I know for sure; there's no way I'm taking Cleveland as a road favorite. 

BUCCANEERS -2' Patriots - The Pats have yet to allow a single RB to rush for 50 yards this season. That's the good news. The bad news is QB Drake Maye has been sacked 34 times, including 12 in the last two games! The Bucs are off a bye, but are still missing RB Bucky Irving and three of their top four WRs. QB Baker Mayfield is banged up too. Pass.

Sunday late games

SEAHAWKS -7 Cardinals - The Cardinals snapped a five game losing streak with Monday night's 27-17 upset win at Dallas. Despite their 3-5 record, it's worth noting that under HC Jonathan Gannon, Arizona is 10-1 as a road dog in their last 11 tries, including 4-0 this season. And with QB Kyler Murray on IR, Jacoby Brissett remains the starter and that's a good thing. He's put up better numbers than Murray. Meanwhile, it used to be the Seahawks had an enormous home field advantage, but since Mike MacDonald took over, Seattle is just 4-8-1 ATS at Lumen Field, and they're laying a big number here. Cards are worth a look here.

Rams -5' 49ERS - The Rams have kicking issues. They missed a PAT and a 39 yard field goal last week in a 34-10 rout of the Titans, and while those misses didn't hurt them in THAT game, it could matter in a series where eight meetings between head coaches Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan have been decided by three points or less. And while the 49ers have been plagued with injuries to many of their key players, here's an eye popping stat for ya; In the last 14 meetings between these two, the underdog has gone 12-1-1 ATS with TEN OUTRIGHT WINS! You know what to do.

Lions -8' REDSKINS - Detroit has playoff revenge from last season, and is 12-0 ATS after a loss, and the Redskins are a hot mess right now. However, I lost taking the the Lions at the same number last week, and lost taking Denver at a big number Thursday night. To take a page from the classic rock band, the Who.....I WON'T BE FOOLED AGAIN! Pass.

CHARGERS -2' Steelers - Pittsburgh held the Colts to 20 points, with five QB sacks and six takeaways last week, but were outgained 368 total yards to 225. The Steelers are just 1-7 ITS, but they've feasted on sacks and turnovers, meaning if the Chargers can keep QB Justin Herbert's jersey clean, they should win this. That might be a tall task though with the Bolts' offensive line injuries.

Good stuff man, good luck this week 

@Yanasaur 

 @saigon 

BOL guys! 

 let's get it 

GL 

@Boisestateand8

Nice contribution , thanks 

BOL today

@JFEEZEE 

 @Fuse 

 @Biscuit 

Took Buffalo in my eliminator pool and it scares the hell out me for some reason, but options were limited this week. Also considered the Bears and Panthers.

Watching the line movement on tonight's game. 

Yikes, you were right to be scared. Serious pucker factor, but Josh Allen can work miracles.

Any insight on Monday game? Much appreciated!

@Monsterpick

 My "insights" weren't too good this week. Lost on both the Cards and Niners and it wasn't close.

I'm leaning Packers, who are off an outright loss to Carolina as a huge favorite. The Eagles played their best game of the season two weeks ago against the Giants. This game is basically a pick em. I think Green Bay is the better team, but after the day I had yesterday I'm staying away. BOL if you play it. 

The line has flipped in the Monday night game. The Packers have gone from being a 2' point fav to a 1' point dog. That's piqued my interest in this game. 

The line has flipped in the Monday night game. The Packers have gone from being a 2' point fav to a 1' point dog. That's piqued my interest in this game. 

I see a  pickem at most of my sites.

GL  on your play @Boisestateand8