NFL Week 10

First off, there's something I have to get off my chest, a therapeutic rant if you will. The target of my rant is.....ME!
Week 9 was my first posting of the season, and my head was clear to start, picking SD, Balt, Pit, Dal, NO (4-1). My week wasn't the worst, adding 6.35 units to my roll. However, my week 9 ended on a doubly-sour note which has me feeling like a stupid fuking moron and a loser. First off, I did my picks early in the week, late Mon and early Tues which usually works well for me.  I have a fresh perspective of what is, unpolluted by thinking too much on what is actually quite simple. Perhaps from winner's euphoria or too much time on my hands, I spent way too much time thinking about the games after that, all week long, and even committed a cardinal sin, which was to change a pick. I ignored the KISS method (keep it simple stupid) and over-thought the matchups. I had already learned in the past that changing a pick is a bad thing. For me, it results in way more losers than winners and the obvious truth is that if one first picks one way, and then changes to the other side, the  fact is that there is clear confusion which should be respected. The correct play then is to PASS (or leave the original pick alone). Show some damn discipline for Pete's sake! I changed my pick from N.O. to Phil.-  LOSER!
I added a pick I had already rejected early in the week: Cin. - LOSER!
Part 2 of my stupidity is this. I had great discipline to start the season, consciously deciding to pass on the first month, getting a feel for what's happening and I'm happy with myself about that. I believe my idea had the intended result. When I jumped in a few weeks ago, I had 2 picks which both won, followed the next week with 2 weeks that won, followed the next week with 4 picks that won. Then, I got completely full of myself, revisited my account here on covers and posted my picks for week 9. Had I just left it at that as I intended, I would not be so down on myself going 4-1 on my original picks. But, I then got way too involved, added a loser (Cin), and then changed a winner to a loser. I spent way too much time reading other's opinions and perhaps even confusing myself with too much damn information. After that Phil game, I couldn't even sleep being sick to my stomach at how my last two picks (Dal, Phil) were such horrible, crap picks and that I should have known better. I jumped onto the angle that teams with playoff aspirations and in desperation mode "needing" to win, and therefor... good picks (WRONG!). Hence; Cin, Dal, Phil.  The reason these picks were such crap picks IMO is that I was ignoring the reality which I was also fully aware of. The reality is that those teams are CRAP teams (and 2 of them were facing good teams: Den, Atl!). Dal and Phil especially bad due to the fact that they feature 2 idiot coaches who do not have a clue. I shouldn't even have to explain why Jason Garret is an idiot as a HC, he's made quite a few very costly mistakes regarding game planning and game management over the last couple seasons and this last extremely conservative approach at Atlanta was no exception. Reid, although highly respected, is not too bright either. I can point to a few examples. Last year, he promoted J. Castillo, an offensive guy, into the spot of Def Cord. WTF? Look at what happened, was that a "smart" move? Duh, NO! Another example is I heard that Vick thought he was going to be benched, when in fact, Reid had no such ideas at all. The HC is supposed to be the guy who manages games, manages personnel. He should know when and what when it comes to stroking players, or cracking the whip. He's supposed to keep his players prepared, happy, and focused. How is it that he allowed Vick to think he was getting benched, when there was no such intention? Why did he allow a key player to get embroiled in an inner turmoil which could not possibly have had any other effect than remove the focus from where it should be? Vick should have been thinking about how to improve his game, reducing costly errors...not worrying about whether he's getting benched or not. Isn't communication a pretty important part of managing personnel? Anyway, whatever. I shouldn't care whether a coach is a moron or not. I should instead be happy that I'm aware of it and then take advantage by fading those idiots hard and often.
The fact is that I allowed some somewhat intangible "angles" obscure my knowledge that these teams are shit. Shit rolls downstream as they say. Two teams loaded with talent, yet they are stinking it up, under-performing at nearly every opportunity.
You've got 2 shit coaches, polluting the teams with shit rolling downstream resulting in shit play from players who are loaded with talent. Putting talented players in positions to lose is how "good" team lose. That does not correct itself. It can only be corrected by shit-canning these coaches, and trying to replace a losing culture with a winning one (want an example? - looks @ SF and what Harbaugh did in ONE season with basically the same personnel!!!!!). If the situation persists uncorrected, the obvious play from a bettor's perspective is just take it for what it is, and bet accordingly! Hence, Atl and N.O. were OBVIOUS picks. So was Den for that matter. I allowed myself to be blinded by some ethereal angles, grabbing on to smoke and mirrors and ignored the flat-out obvious reality.
THAT IS WHY I AM SOOO PISSED AT MYSELF!

Anyway, I had to get that out of my system. Now I feel I've got my head screwed on straight again and I plan on getting back to where I was before I got blinded by my own success. Thankfully as well, before there's much damage as well!

Next post coming up is my week 10 thoughts and picks. Coming up in a few......

WEEK 10

I'll just start out by saying I don't like this card much (lines), and I plan on being as conservative as this betting-junkie can muster.... Good Luck to me!

Insights and factors to be aware of.
#1, Week 9 was a Favorite week. The implication is that the Books are there to make money, not give it away. I fully expected that in response to this last week, the Books were going to have a bunch of blow-job, over-inflated lines (and that's exactly what's happened). If the favs are covering, the bettors kicking a$$, the obvious reaction is that the lines are going to have to go up. That is going to have a compensating effect on any new-found winning edge which might have swayed over temporarily to the average bettor - Joe-Favorite-Bettor.  Any astute gambler is going to have to be fully aware of that right off the bat!
I'm looking at these blow-job lines:
Indy -3 (on the road, division rival after already losing to them @ H!)
NE  -11
Mia  -5.5  (these guys are great dogs, crappy favs)
Balt  -7.5  (be warned, Oak is a GREAT DOG!)
Sea  -6.5  (WTF? - this line should be 4, not more!)
SF  -11.5
Pit  -12.5
A couple of these are among my top choices for the week, but the problem for me is that I resolved I was going to stay away from DD point spreads. Something is going to have to give for me this week or I would have to skip it altogether. The main point is that these lines are over-inflated IMO. Maybe it won't matter, maybe it will.

Trends:  Teams going into the bye have a horrible trend, something like an 8-1 losing ratio. Week 9: Cle, GB, Ari, Wa. 1-3 ATS on the week. Teams coming out of the bye usually have an edge: Buf, Cin, Balt, Hou. 2-2 ATS. I have my own quite simple but effective filter I use to refine these trends. If a team is a good team, I will look for them to buck the trend going into the bye (GB - winner). If a team is a crap team, I look for them to be unable to take advantage of the bye factor (Buf, Cin - 0-2)

This week's teams off the bye: SL, NE, NYJ, SF : I expect SF and NE to have had the full benefit of coming off the bye, and I will look to be trying to bet on them somehow (DD favs - ugh!). Good teams know how to balance the needed rest with preparation. Bad teams by definition are not helped by the week off.  SL and NYJ ? (who the hell are these Jet guys) : I do not expect that they will be magically transformed into good teams by virtue of having a week off, so I will not be looking to make plays on them, but rather against them. That said, I respect Jet's history as a good dog and my impression that the line is over-inflated = PASS.

This week's teams going into the bye: (Ten, Min, NYG, Sea). Good teams remain focused and are not chomping at the bit to go on vacation early (like during their game): NYG, Sea.  Bad teams who probably can't wait to escape their current nightmares and who are likely to stink it up before their much desired "vacation": Ten, Min.

Now, with that stuff out of the way as a guide to keep in mind when looking at the matchups, here I go with my picks.

NE -11   I love the pick, but I hate the line. This game is a mismatch. This "should" be a wood-shed game. I don't think I have to over-analyze this at all.

NYG - 4   Good teams bounce back, shit teams don't. I expect NYG coming off a flat performance on the heels of a horrible week with Sandy completely disrupting their practice week to bounce back and beat the pathetic Bungals. NYG are road warriors too. I'm not going to over-analyze this one either.

Den -3.5   Good team on a mission visiting the woeful Panthers who are coming off a feel-good win making them a tiny bit less hungry and desperate.

Det +1     Det has found their mojo and are making their move to make the playoffs. Min, after a good start is trying to ride their one-horse offense for wins. One horse does not a team make. The bottom line - I did watch the ThN game Min hosting TB. Min is a suck-azz team. Period. Absolutely miserable. One team surging, the other faltering. Enough said.

SF -11.5    One team crushing the division, the other a bottom-feeder. Here's another stepping stone for the Niners to continue solidifying their strangle-hold on the division. Harbaugh will have these guys prepared to stomp the lowly Lambs. Again, I don't like the inflated line.

Pit -12.5   Pit is rolling, and they can't afford to let off the gas now. They're trailing Balty, they are still in must-win mode. They get a real break here facing arguably the worst team in the NFL. Will they have a let-down after a tough game at NYG? If they are a good team as I view them, NO.   BTW, I give Crennel a ton of credit for rightly stepping down as Def Cord and putting his full attention to the job of HC, but this losing won't change over-night. Here again, I love the pick but I hate the DD line. I will be looking for a spot to take KC as a dog down the road, but this won't be it here....

Here's my 2 plays placed last night so far. I'm going to have to have it out with myself on what I'm going to do about these inflated lines and DD point spreads before I make any straight bets this week. In the meantime, I am going to express my conservative desire by betting only 2 units:

NE     -2.5
NYG  +4.5
Den   +5
SF     -3         TEASER
Pit     -4      1 unit to win 1.8 units  (8.5 pt teaser on Bookmaker)

NE  -11
SF  -11.5    PARLAY    1 unit to win 2.645 units  

I do have a lean on the ThN game, Indy -3 but I am quite reserved about going against the Home Dog Division Rival Factor. Jack already beat Indy on the road. Indy was a -3 fav and NOW THEY ARE FAV ON THE ROAD????? (Blow Job line!)   I may well have to pass. I like Luck, I like the team (playing inspired, refuse-to-lose FB for their coach!). Jack is also a capable dog. Remember that MN game when the mighty Ravens came into town and were manhandled by the Jags? As said, I may well have to pass.....

BOL everyone.

I plan on staying away from this stuff now the rest of the week and not over-informationing myself like last week. Also, if I change any pick again and don't PASS, I give you all full permission to KICK MY STUPID, SORRY AZZ!   

    

   

PS. Don't be surprised if I add Oak plus the points later on in the week. I want to see how the line moves and try and get the best number.

Good luck, Tom. I agree that lines will inflated & that when there is value, you just need to hold your nose and take the points. I know that Indy is a public team, especially w/ the Pagano angle & they can't stop the the run. But w/ MJD out, I can't stomach a play on the Jags. I agree that the fish are a pretty unattractive chalk option & I'm leaning Ten + the points. With you on Giants... no idea why that line isn't bigger. It IS a must-win for the Bungles, who are home for the second straight wk AND coming off a loss... but STILL! NYG play BETTER on the road and are also off a loss. Would like them alot more if ANYONE in their division had mustered a W to place SOME pressure on them, but still- NYG -4' is the only play IMO.

Other leans: SD +3/ DEN -4'/ NYJ +6'

While I agree that 7' is alot of points, I've been burnt by OAK too many X's.

GL

I have seen so much love for the Bengals this week and some much less than astute comments regarding the game, I've decided to write it up addressing some key points in much more detail than what I've written so far.
Here's some remarks I've read which are just plain stupid, IMO:
"NYG have a crappy defense"
"Cin is a good team"
"I think NYG win the game but I'm taking the 4 points"

First of all, you have to look at these teams and consider who they are and what their tendencies are.
NYG are often a good team to fade under certain circumstances, such as the game at home favored over Pit. If you understand this NYG team, that was not a shock at all. I had NYG at Dal, and Pit @ NYG. My record betting on and against this team is stellar because to me, they are one of the most consistent teams to figure when you understand their tendencies. This coming weekend is NOT one of those situations to fade them! They are a great team to bet on when people perceive they are not a good pick. That is clearly the case with the line opening at 6 and now down to 4. People put way too much on what they just saw, and I expect that's why bettors are down on NY this week. Also, make no mistake, they are an elite team and I fully expect to see them in the playoffs. You can take the road game @ SF as a benchmark for this team. That game impressed the heck out of me. Beating SF in their house AFTER already beating them on the road in the playoffs last season was a huge statement on the disposition of this year's NYG squad. Playoff revenge is some pretty powerful motivation, especially when you're at home, and SF (a very good team) could not get it done. Do not underestimate NYG!
Cin is a team which consistently provides a glimmer of hope that they have turned the corner and are ready to play like contenders, but then they do not fail to prove again and again that they are not. They are perennial losers. They have not beaten a good team in some time:
2012
@ Balt (6-2) crushed 44-13
home vs Mia (4-4) lost 17-13
home vs Pit (5-3) lost 24-17
home vs Den (5-3) lost 31-23
2011's list of "good" teams they couldn't beat:
@ Den (8-8) lost
home vs SF (13-3) lost
home vs Pit (12-4) lost
@ Balt (12-4) lost
@ Pit    lost
@ Hou  lost
home vs Balt lost
wild card @ Hou lost
This team can't beat a good team. Dalton looked like a decent QB last year, this year, not. He's regressed.
The only teams Cin tends to beat with consistency is sub .500 teams. NYG is not on that list...

"NYG has a crappy defense"  Sure, if all you look at is defensive yards surrendered, they are "crappy". However, it is extremely foolhardy to ignore the bigger picture. NYG is in the top 10 - POINTS ALLOWED (Cin is #25). Last I checked, it's the points on the board that matter, NOT THE YARDS ALLOWED!  Now take a look at the takeaway/giveaway situation. NYG #2 in takeaway with 17 INT and 9 Fumbles! Tied with Chi in INT, #2 to Chi in Fum, #2 to Chi in giveaway/takeaway differential with a +14.
That's a crappy defense? I disagree completely!
Cin is near the bottom of the list with 5 INT, 5 FUM takeaways. On the offensive side, Dalton has 12 INT and that in itself more than makes up for (in a negative way) all their 10 takeaways.
Advantage: (landslide) NYG

Want to consider the matchup from the offensive view? NYG 28.2 ppg, Cin 23.6. Consider that Cin's top 3 offensive outings of 38, 34, 27 pts came against Wa, Cle, Jack and I can make a case that the 23.6 av is inflated! NYG hung 26 point on the Niners on the road, one of the leagues better defenses (and only gave up 3!).
NYG have Manning. Cin: Dalton  = mismatch
Advantage: NYG


"Cin is a good team".  New flash. They are 3-5. Not even a .500 team. How is that good? They haven't beaten a "good" team in two seasons.  How is that good?  In your dreams maybe...Point made!

"I think NYG win the game but I'm taking the 4 points."  Personally, when I bet a dog, it's either because I believe they are a "live" dog, with a reasonable expectation to win outright, or I'm getting a lot of points. 4 points is not nearly enough if I'm already expecting them to lose!

Look at it this way. The books figured NYG to be a 6 pt fav in this matchup. However, the bettors have driven the line down to 4. To me, that's a good reason to take NYG, not the dog!

One team, you will see in the playoffs with the opportunity to repeat as Champs. The other team is dead meat. 1/2 way through, they are 2 behind the better Steelers and 3 behind Balt. They sit at 3-5 which doesn't look too good for their wild card chances either. Whatever hopes and aspirations the Bungals have for this season is nothing more than a pipe-dream. Reality vs Pipe-Dream. I'll take Reality!

Last week was THE game for Cin to show that they can make a move as a playoff contender. They faced a decent (not great) Den team (only 4-3 at the time) and could not get it done. They just aren't good enough. Now they have to face an even better Giants team (6-2) and peeps think they cover this time? LOL 

NYG is coming off a loss and that spells bad news for their next opponent. Coughlin is a quality coach who hates to lose. NYG will be better prepared this week, count on it. Had NYG won last week, I would be tempted to consider a let-down, but as it stands now, no way.

PICK:  NYG -4

BOL

Correction: NYG 6-3

One last point: Home Dogs this season to date:
24-22
Not a very encouraging angle.

Road favs went on a rampage past 3 weeks, (11-2 ATS), what goes up, must come down.........................

BOL to you as well.

SF and NE are both off their byes, and we know what happens with good teams off their byes. They are facing cannon fodder as well...
I expect both of them to cover easily and that's why I'm laying those points and on a parlay to boot.

Pitt? I agree.  I don't think they cover the DD, but I feel comfortable with the 4 on my teaser. I would not lay DD on a MN game unless everyone and their brother and sister and mother were betting the dog. These prime time games with the biggest take on the line for the House always seem to go their way. Funny too, there always seems to be some fishy officiating which swings the outcome the Book's way, at least it seems to be that way to me. Huge money at stake, they win more than not.

Quote Originally Posted by TomE:

BOL to you as well.

SF and NE are both off their byes, and we know what happens with good teams off their byes. They are facing cannon fodder as well...
I expect both of them to cover easily and that's why I'm laying those points and on a parlay to boot.

Pitt? I agree.  I don't think they cover the DD, but I feel comfortable with the 4 on my teaser. I would not lay DD on a MN game unless everyone and their brother and sister and mother were betting the dog. These prime time games with the biggest take on the line for the House always seem to go their way. Funny too, there always seems to be some fishy officiating which swings the outcome the Book's way, at least it seems to be that way to me. Huge money at stake, they win more than not.

Nothing fishy about you thinking this, anyone with half a brain knows the tv games are crooked..............people actually think an official making his pay are gonna sit back & watch guys making 5 million a year & not wanna get paid more? 

All these refs have serious connections to place wagers for them..................

I dont feel comfortable with the Pats off the bye this year & I even put the Bills ML in one of my parlays..............one of us will be happy in that game. 

The 49ers off the bye should man handle & clobber the Rams but I stuck them in 10 point teasers with Steelers & played them on the ML in parlays..................

You are very wordy. Good Luck on your plays. 

Whoa, whoa, whoa, wait a minute, TomE, what are you doing to me, putting me on blast, lol.
Yes, I was the one who said I think the Giants will win, but I am taking the points...please before you insult ask for an explanation.

First of all I think this could be  close game ie a FG, which is within the spread.
So, the Giants can win by 1,2,3,4 and still you get a cover.
I have done this before when I thought the game would be close and I won.

Now, here is the other reason, now this you may say is stupid, but I am a die hard Giant fan, and when I bet on them, I have a real good feel they are going to win. When I don't have a feel I ALWAYS take points and have NO PROBLEM losing because I never wager that big on or against my team because if they win, losing the money is OK with me, that is the stupid fan in me, but it makes sense to me.
When they lose I get some money so it helps me through the loss a little.

I know this team better than most people, and I am just saying this is one of those spots you have to be careful.  They can lose this just as easy as they can blow them out.  The Giants are one of the toughest teams to cap, the ability is there, but you need to cap what attitude they are approaching the game with. Too many times we come in way overconfident.  I have watched over 30+ years of Giant football so before you dismiss y remark s stupid, give me a chance to explain.

Plus...I was just about to send you a friend request.

 

You are very wordy as well, tonyrome. 

Tony!
Let me first to say I do NOT believe YOU are stupid! I don't think I'm stupid either. But you can believe me when I say I have thought and said many stupid things in my life!  LOL  
Look, I thought that Dal and Phil were good picks last week because I thought they were "desperate" and had the tools to get the job done. Doh! Man, if that wasn't STUPID, I don't know what is!  haha
I'm sorry you wanted to take credit for the comment you know you made, because I was not going to reveal the source!
 
You are one of the true gentlemen on Covers, and I have a great deal of respect for you from what I've read.

I wish you BOL on the Cin play, even if I don't think it's a err...."wise" choice.  


Best Regards,
Tom

Words are the best tools for expressing one's thoughts clearly. I do try to convey my thoughts as accurately as possible. So, thank you!
LOL

...by the way, I LOVE Dallas this week! Easily my personal favorite.

Sorry, words are my only method of communication.
Maybe you would be happier in a pictures only forum?

PTB
I know. I was attempting to disguise my perception that it appears too many of the Prime Time games are rigged, adding my name to the list of "conspiracy nuts". I guess now the word is out though. LOL
IMO, it happens too often to be mere co-incidence. And this type of thing just goes back years and years and years.....
It has already been proven to occur in BB...I recall a certain guy who spilled the beans and landed in prison...
To think it doesn't happen in the NFL is looking at the world of sports with blinders on....
BOL on your plays this week!

Good luck this week Tom

TomE respect and enjoy your threads man but ya gotta throw some paragraphs in there, so hard to read.

I completely agree and I'm tempted to take another chance with them again. I'm a little disgruntled with them for proving to me once again that I tend to overestimate them. They are sooo aggravating. I look at the talent on that team, it's just unbelievable they are 4-9 last 13 reg season games!

In any case, 2 teams in dire straits but the key IMO is the Phil OL.
I don't know how many more hits Vick can take before he's through for the year. I actually feel sorry for him.  If I'm Ryan game planning Def for this week @ Phil, I'm looking at the blueprint N.O. just laid out for all to see MN. Yikes.
I think you have a winner there.

LOL   When I was a youngster, I had a voracious appetite for books. Faulkner was a favorite. He not only had an aversion for paragraphs, his sentences went on for 2 pages! LOL

BOL to U!

JohnnyLonghorn       U 2!

Naze    TY 

c_had38  Good luck as well!

You are a top man Tom
Best of my Irish luck to you.
I think similar to you.

INDY @ JACK

I was seriously considering a PASS on tonight's game, only because it's a Prime Time game and it seems the popular picks (the BIG $$) have been losing more than not. But, they can't lose them all, can they? And, the line bothered me with Indy favored on the road against the same team that beat them at home. Well, I think Indy is a better team as that which started out the season, and I think Jack is worse than when they started out the season.

Jack is only putting up 84 ypg on the ground.
Indy is rushing a little over 100 ypg.
Neither has a stellar run defense with Indy yielding 130 and Jack 137.
Not having a dominant run game puts the pressure on the QB to move the offense.  Then it comes down to which passing game I'd rather have: Luck, or Gabbert?
Indy's passing game is #7
Jack's passing game is #32 - Ouch!
So, it doesn't seem to be such a difficult choice after all.
One of these guys is stepping up big time making great decisions and plays. The other, not so much.
I'm thinking that Luck steals the spotlight tonight on Prime Time and seizes the opportunity to show everyone what a great QB he is.

I change my position from PASS to a 1 unit play on the Colts.

Indy -3 -130   1.3 units to win 1 unit

Hey TomE, love reading your posts. Haven't picked a side yet, but this is my concern with NYG/Cinn game.

-This is the third straight home game for Cinn. They lost to Pitts in week 7,  24-17 and last week 31-23 to Denver. Rarely do teams fail to cover 3 straight home games.
-The line opened at -6 and moved to -4 with one aprox 80% of the money going on the Giants.

What are your thoughts on this.