NFL TODAY PLAYS (9/28)

YTD (NFL):  13-19-1 (BIG PLAY!!!:  2-7-1)

Crushing defeat on MNF with the Ravens, I did hit the FH OVER which seems to be a constant trend with this team.  I see a lot of favorites today that might lose outright but then again my record is abysmal for the first time in years in the NFL so need to right the ship, and quick.  Going to try and pick more specific spots but I'd tread lightly until I get on more solid footing:

WASHINGTON (+2.5):  Everyone on the board is on Atlanta and for good reason.  They got smoked last week, face a severely undermanned Commanders team, and have a ton of sub plots.  But I think the Commanders defense is far better than they are given credit for and I'm very curious to see how they play in their 2nd road game after having been blasted in their first.  Also, it's entirely conceivable that Pennix is not as great as everyone makes him out to be, at least of yet.  Oh, and the Commanders are 5-1 ATS in the past 6 played in Atlanta.  Short line or else this would be a big play.

OVER 39.5 (TENNESSEE/HOUSTON)...BIG PLAY!!!:  Another matchup where on paper you are left scratching your head.  But in today's NFL, this is an extremely low total and both of these teams have pieces that could potentially get the game into the 40's.  Not to mention, the series has seen 16 out of the past 22 and 11 out of the past 14 go over the total when this is played in Houston.

CAROLINA (+5.5)...BIG PLAY!!!:  Aside from the fact that the Patriots have been truly awful at home, the Panthers come in with most of their banged up guys ready to suit up, and that's because they know they can win this game.  They also have serious trends pointing in their direction and I think they will build from the blowout win over Atlanta last week.  These are too many points for the Pats to be laying even if they are at home they are 1-5 ATS vs. the Panthers after all.  They might win, but tall task to ask the Patriots to do so by more than 5.

Ugly slate, I know.  I might add a FH play on the total in Detroit but still figuring that part out.  As for now, I will stick with these and start the turnaround.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

GL  on your plays @LAGameofInches 

Been a grind.

Adding....

OVER 22.5 FH (CLE/DET) & OVER 44.5 FG (CLE/DET):  Was really tempted to make this a big play.  I've done really well this year in FH's, about the only angle I've been successful within.  But both these teams have scored in the FH and as good as the Cleveland defense is they have given up points on the road.  Lost in how good the Lions defense is seems is how many points their defense has given up.  I think these teams come out and score and then the Lions separate as they have a tendency to do.  A close game and this game 100% goes over.

Will be back later for a couple more.  That's all I'm going to play in the AM and it's already a lot.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

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