YTD (NFL): 23-26-1 (BIG PLAY!!!: 6-9-1)
Getting there....still been same issue, early Sunday NFL games have been bleeding while it seems every other time slot has been quite good. I've obviously dropped more units on the BIG PLAYS but those also seem to be adjusting. Same system as always, but seems this year there is more ambiguity since I have not done much different. Even more nerve wrecking I'm seeing some of the same teams that have let me down jump off the radar for today. That's why I always suggest doing your own research as well. With that said, here is what I am on for today:
BALTIMORE +1 (EVEN)...BIG PLAY!!!: Don't even try to talk me out of this play. I know this team, they OWN the Texans, even more so in Baltimore where they have won the past 8 meetings SU. Yes, Lamar Jackson is missing or this line would not be this much of a gift. Let's not forget Cooper Rush was super useful last year for the Cowboys when Dak Prescott went out. Oh, and that Derrick Henry...as long as he still has legs he's still going to run. And there's not much difference in taking the ball out of the hands of the QB when the last name is different on a jersey. Offensive line (I believe Stanley is playing today) is still going to block. Mark Andrews, still going to have his hands to catch. And the Texans offense...horrible in the FH of seemingly every game and they have NOT been good away from home it seems for years. I wouldn't sleep on the Ravens, not at home and not with a gift line like this. Maybe I'm a fool, but I'm going to be a fool on the same side as Vegas.
OVER 22.5 FH (MIAMI/CAROLINA): No Tyreek Hill but also no defense. The only thing here that concerns me is the Jekyll and Hyde that the Panthers play between home and away. But they are at home today and should be able to score on a Miami defense that has been exposed for weeks. On the flip side, the Panthers have also been leaky at the back and I think the emergence of Derrick Waller will very much help this offense. Don't forget how much they leaned on Jonnu Smith last year in the passing game when Hill was absent. I see both teams good for at least 10 points each so that would mean all that's needed is an extra field goal. Very doable.
NEW ORLEANS (-125)...BIG PLAY!!!: PUKE, but have to do it. They should and will win this game further igniting a fire under the hot seat of Brian Daboll. It's just so hard for rookie QB's to go on the road in the NFL and have success and I realize Jaxson Dart is heading back to the SE where he played for Mississippi, so he should be extra motivated. I just think losing Nabers is a big hole in the offense that was just staring to produce last game. The Saints are also at home where they are 7-3 over the last 10 vs. the NYG. They will find a way to get this done in one of the few winnable games on their schedule.
OVER 44 (DENVER/PHI)...BIG PLAY!!!: Go big or go home, yet another big play but I am going to really jump on this. The Broncos defense is really great but the Philly offense is a juggernaut. The Broncos have tended so score more on the road with Bo Nix and 7 of the last 8 in this series have gone OVER the total, including the last 3 in Philadelphia. Two good defenses, but also two solid offenses.
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