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My numbers make this near pick; +3.5 is value. Colts win early downs, generate pressure, steal possessions—taking Indianapolis + ML

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Legend
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Posted: #1

NFL [269] IND COLTS +3½-112 [5U]


NFL [269] IND COLTS +157 [3U]

 
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Posted: #2

GL clover on your plays like your style ma man an_cheers@LVTruck peace_5

 

What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
 
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Posted: #3

I like it. GL LV!

 
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Posted: #4

clover

 
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Posted: #5

How’s the record this year bradda man

 
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Posted: #6

I’m leaning hard to Cowboys +6.5 later. Number’s rich for a one-score game IMO

Gotta see what happens with the Colts game. 

an_cheers

 
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Posted: #7

2-1 NFL posted 

Way worse than that in the real world 

 
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Posted: #8

NFL [2269] 2H IND COLTS +2½-110 [5U]

 
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Posted: #9

Colts are finished. May be on the cowboys with ya. Enjoy the game 

 
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Posted: #10

That touchdown celebration kinda hurt whatever the fuck that was

 
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Posted: #11

an_2drinks TD 

 
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Posted: #12

@LVTruck

 an_2drinks

 
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Posted: #13

Are you fucking shitting me? Seriously? angry

 
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Posted: #14

Games like this make me wonder if it is even possible to be profitable betting the nfl... i had the colts angryan_brick

 
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Posted: #15

I feel violated

 
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Posted: #16

Quote Originally Posted by Igetmoney2202:

Games like this make me wonder if it is even possible to be profitable betting the nfl... i had the colts

We can only control our handicapping process and what bets we submit, so:

Either I make good wagers or a not so good wager.

As I cannot control outcome, zero energy is wasted on what happened beyond objective post bet analysis.

In this instance the Colts performance was consistent with the handicapping that likely made them a pick.  But for an anomaly on the TD fumble, a very touchy holding right after the Rams late fumble, and another touchdown that may or may not have happened absent the hold by #10......the bet was in a very good place to succeed.

So I would call it a good wager and noting that at +157 I would need 4 of 10 (38.91%) to be profitable I'd make that bet again.

Getting sucked into this team / that team and the emotions of the game will make your process weaken.

In my very humble opinion

Don't let the book set the number
 
 
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Posted: #17

Quote Originally Posted by unplucked_gem:

Quote Originally Posted by Igetmoney2202: Games like this make me wonder if it is even possible to be profitable betting the nfl... i had the colts We can only control our handicapping process and what bets we submit, so: Either I make good wagers or a not so good wager. As I cannot control outcome, zero energy is wasted on what happened beyond objective post bet analysis. In this instance the Colts performance was consistent with the handicapping that likely made them a pick.  But for an anomaly on the TD fumble, a very touchy holding right after the Rams late fumble, and another touchdown that may or may not have happened absent the hold by #10......the bet was in a very good place to succeed. So I would call it a good wager and noting that at +157 I would need 4 of 10 (38.91%) to be profitable I'd make that bet again. Getting sucked into this team / that team and the emotions of the game will make your process weaken. In my very humble opinion

Great analysis peace_5

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