London Game Jets vs Broncos

I'm typically wary of laying big spreads (NFL anything over 5.5 is a big spread IMO) in international games as they tend to be competitive. The travel (lot farther for Denver) combined with coming off a big win over the champs is another concern.

But, the Broncos are just a bad matchup for anyone without a good offense, as we saw last week. Now, everyone could see the Eagles werent that good this year winning games without offense, and not only did Denver expose them but it was confirmed when they gave the Giants only their 2nd home win between last season and this one.

And the Jets, while they are better on offense than the Eagles in yards, and they have only had 2 of their 5 losses be outside this spread, are 0-5 because they cannot finish games. They should have beat TB. They lost every close game because they have too many weaknesses. Unlike Philadelphia who is number 1 in red zone offense, the Jets are 18th. Denver is the top red zone defense and the Jets 16th.

The Broncos have the most sacks while the Jets have allowed the 4th most and 2nd most yards lost to sacks. Denver could do with improving their 21st ranked turnover margin per game, but the Jets are ranked dead last in that stat.

Broncos have no time for a letdown in London being in the tough AFC West and tied for 1st with the Chargers while the Jets can't win a game and will be the basement dwellers of the AFC East which is giving the NFC South a run for its money as the worst division in the NFL.

Aaron Glenn isn't a good coach and the Jets passing game is ranked down as low as Philadelphia, and are similarly bad on 3rd downs. they don't have a QB like Hurts who had 305 passes without a pick until recently, don't have reliable guys like Goedert for red zone, don't have tush push capabilities.

Perhaps getting out of NY will help the Jets finally get off the shnied, but despite a lot of parity in the NFL we have seen the worst teams often endure long losing streaks. Nobody wants to play Denver right now on any field.

The Broncos know how to finish games ranking 2nd in 2nd half points allowed while the Jets are giving up almost 2 TDs per game in the 2nd half. I doubt the Jets can play well enough for 4 quarters to beat a team like Denver, and with those 2nd half defensive stats a backdoor cover is less worrying. Fields is a garbage time king but I think Denver is a lot more likely to just heap more misery on the Jets than they are to suddenly come alive against a defense that just shut down an offense with similar stats but much better individual pieces, takes care of the ball better, allows less sacks and has a real winning pedigree which the Jets cannot say has been the case for a long time.

But didmt you know this is the Jets Suoer Bowl? They are going to come out like the 94 49ers because the game is being played in Europe.

It's hard to take a favorite of 7 or more in today's NFL. 

Well they will have to because they are playing a team that has a real chance at going to the actual Super Bowl. And to do that you don't drop games to winless teams no matter where it's played.

 It definitely is, and the Jets have only lost by more than 7 twice out of 5 losses. But this is the best team they'll have played, and it's easier to cover that spread when the other team can't score and turns it over a lot.

I do hate taking teams as a favorite that won SU as a dog the week before. Especially with that TNF Giants game on deck last week was a better spot to take them.

But if you look at the season as a whole, you will make more money betting against the worst teams than doing anything else. I'm not going to suddenly start taking the worst team when they're playing one of the best. Most of my losses the last few years have been backdoor covers (like Army yesterday) and this season has been brutal for it with the most games ever that come down tonthe final possession or 2 minutes. But if I'm gonna be afraid of that with every bet on a favorite then i might as well quit altogether.

If they're down by more than 7 and have the ball I'll take Denver to get a pick or big sack rather than Fields to drive down on that D. Of course teams do go into prevent etc and refs love to extend the losing teams last drives with penalties and such but in games like this, international, games on Thanksgiving etc I like to take the team that is having a good year and has momentum rather than hope the bad team suddenly rises up and plays well.

The other thing about fading teams that stink is even if they do break out and win a game, they usually go right back to sucking after pulling an upset and you can just fade them again next week and make it back.

Jets are the only NFL team that hasn't recorded a single takeaway.

We got it. You don't like them. Like it's unheard of for a 7 point dog in the NFL to cover.  

Im so good at jinxing myself. I knew they would get one today too and ofc it's on the first drive but they couldn't do much with it and only getting a FG is okay

I really think people are underestimating how bad they are especially on D.