JAX / BUFF

I actually did a 3 TEAM 6 pt Tease (JAX, NO, and NO/CAR over) and a 2 Team 6 pt Tease (JAX and JAX/BUFF under) today

because I wasn't too sure about laying 8.5 on Jax and unsure how healthy McCoy real is. Jacksonville may have the 2nd ranked defense in the league (behind Minn), but they are a bottom third team against the run. In fact, they give up 116 yards a game. A healthy McCoy makes this game a lot closer than 8.5 pts. If McCoy isn't healthy, then possible 6-7 points. JAX is going to blitz and blitz and make Taylor beat them in the passing game which plays right into their #1 ranked pass defense. 

Having said that, their last few games have not been too encoraging:

Week 17 - Loss to TEN 15-10. You can give them a mulligan as they had the playoffs wrapped up. Fair enough

Week 16 - Loss to SF 44-33. Jimmy G picked them apart. Surprising to see their pass defense give up so many plays in the game. Though one score was a pick-6, giving up 37 points isn't indicative of a top ranked defense. Especially against a QB who doesn't even know the full playbook. 

Week 15 - Win vs HOU 45-7. No Watson and they had a field day with Yates. You would expect them to roll

Week 14 - Win vs SEA 30-24. Game could have been a lot closer. SEA is banged up and a shell of themselves, and they still gave Jax fits. JAX was up 24-10 and let SEA back in the 4th to make this a lot closer. 

Week 13 - Win vs IND 30-10. You would expect this against a beat up Colts squad. 

Week 12 - Loss at ARI 27-24. Though a win, they let Blaine Gabbert pick them apart. Really a disappointing peformance and a game their defense shoudl have controlled. 

When you start going down the schedule, you realize they have had a darn easy slate and their 10-6 record is misleading. I think they are fool's gold. They only have ONE win against a playoff team. That's it. A 30-9 win at PITT but Bortles only had 95 yards passing. Fournette had a huge game (181 yds and 2 TDs). They lost twice to TENN. They had a home win against a solid SD, but SD actually gave that game away as SD let comfortable 4th quarter lead slip away with turnovers. 

What I am trying to say, I haven't see a dominant JAX team all year. I know BUFF has a bottom 10 defense. They have a horrible run defense, and that is the only reason why I think JAX has an advantage as they will own the field game and make BUFF beat them. This BUFF team was matching fire with fire with the Pats before the refs stole their TD. BUFFS have two wins against playoff teams (ATL and KC), but they also have some pour losses - blowout losses to NO and SD and a 34-21 thumping by the NYJ. What BUFF team do you get? McCoy is really the question. If he's healthy, I see BUFF stayng close. If he's a shell of himself, then this game could get out of hand. 

Haven't placed my final bet. But leaning BUFF 8.5. 

* encouraging

Meant to say (Against AZ), Though a *loss

The Jags defense is down right suffocating. I think the narrative that has been talked about for the past 2 weeks is going to have them angry and ready to destroy this joke Bills team. Tom Coughlin and Doug Marrone will have this team ready to roll.

I hope so as I have my teasers on them. I just don't trust Bortles. 13 INTS and 9 fumbles isn't what you want in your starting QB.

For the tinfoil hat crowd, they are probably waiting for the NFL to give the Bills a few calls for screwing them on the Pats game.