In the NFL, underdogs have an outright win percentage of roughly 33% based on data since the 2003 season

In the NFL, underdogs have an outright win percentage of roughly

33% based on data since the 2003 season. The percentage can vary depending on factors such as the point spread and location. 

NFL underdog win percentages 

ok simply put on underdog you have 2 shots to win every game like a 6 point dog loses by 3 or s/u wins game 

chalks only 1 way must win by more than spread and a misses xtra point can fawkkkkkkkkk you over 

as my exact sore in Rams vs Beanglas 24- 20 got fawked 23-20 grrrrrrrrrrrrrr 100$ wager would have won 1000's 

@tjones1270

 I totally agree with you, was expecting the underdog win percentages to be much higher tho. 

@Guy_2U

 Genuinely curious what that % is ATS back to 2003

@unplucked_gem

This query is pretty simple:

season > 2002 and D

SU:  1952-3975-15 (-5.3,32.9%)

ATS:  2931-2848-163 (-0.2,50.7%)

Obviously the vigorish would burn up your bankroll taking every dog and just covering 50.7% of the games.

SO

you say there’s a chance

sounds about right. the art of picking the dog is an unique skill to have. 

@DogbiteWilliams

 im suprised ats is 50.7%, last season must have dropped those percentages big time huh

Season=2024 and D.....(130-150) 46%

so yes, underperformed.

WOW 

i see in 2023 too, 48%

faves led back to back years. 51% dropped 0.5% in 2 seasons whoa.