After doing a quick and admittedly very lazy search, favorites are 27-20 this season so far. 57.4% win rate.
Of course there are a few games with tight spreads where the fav switches and depending on the line that you got that number could be inaccurate.
I can’t remember what the final numbers were for last season, but it was insanity again. As someone who bets more dogs than favorites, last season was a nightmare. And this year looks to be a repeat of that…
So what’s going on here? Is there a logical explanation? And is there a point where blindly betting every favorite every week is a strategy worth taking?
Overreacting in the betting market is usually a recipe for disaster, but is it time to believe that maybe this is not an overreaction? Are the books failing to put an accurate number on these games? Is betting favorites the easiest way to make money in the NFL at this point?
After doing a quick and admittedly very lazy search, favorites are 27-20 this season so far. 57.4% win rate.
Of course there are a few games with tight spreads where the fav switches and depending on the line that you got that number could be inaccurate.
I can’t remember what the final numbers were for last season, but it was insanity again. As someone who bets more dogs than favorites, last season was a nightmare. And this year looks to be a repeat of that…
So what’s going on here? Is there a logical explanation? And is there a point where blindly betting every favorite every week is a strategy worth taking?
Overreacting in the betting market is usually a recipe for disaster, but is it time to believe that maybe this is not an overreaction? Are the books failing to put an accurate number on these games? Is betting favorites the easiest way to make money in the NFL at this point?
Teams are mostly who there where last year. You can predict most playoffs team right now and maybe get 10 out of 14 right. What is it you expect to change based of that? The good teams are really good and the bad teams are really bad.
Im not in disagreement with any of this. I don’t expect that the dogshit teams are going to miraculously be good teams. But the spread is there for a reason. And I’m certain that the books aren’t happy about the rate of favorites winning s/u and ats over the last 20+ weeks of nfl.
I guess I’m just curious to know how long it will take for things to regress back to the mean and if the strategy should be to just pound the favorites until it happens. There may be a gravy train to ride for a while.
At the end of last season I thought there was no way this could continue for another season, but maybe it will…
Teams are mostly who there where last year. You can predict most playoffs team right now and maybe get 10 out of 14 right. What is it you expect to change based of that? The good teams are really good and the bad teams are really bad.
Im not in disagreement with any of this. I don’t expect that the dogshit teams are going to miraculously be good teams. But the spread is there for a reason. And I’m certain that the books aren’t happy about the rate of favorites winning s/u and ats over the last 20+ weeks of nfl.
I guess I’m just curious to know how long it will take for things to regress back to the mean and if the strategy should be to just pound the favorites until it happens. There may be a gravy train to ride for a while.
At the end of last season I thought there was no way this could continue for another season, but maybe it will…
The trend in betting lines the last 15 years, for the most part, is Spreads are getting lower and lower.
Part of it is Home Field advantage has gone down about 2 pts in calculations.
Sagarin used to use a Home Field factor of 2.9-3.1. This year he is down to 1.13. Imagine Home Field is now worth only 1 point.
A great example yesterday was Chargers versus Broncos goes off at 2.5
The favorite won, but in years past that line would have been 3. Most games back in the day went off at either 3,4,7 & 10.
Was the book giving money away? No. They want to generate action. They want people to take sides on a game. Thats why we see so many 2.5 & 3.5's now.
They also want people to buy into additional juice. They know that the NFL is not outcome certain. Just look at Falcons-Panthers outcome yesterday. Or New Orleans Seattle.( New Orleans held Seattle to 320 yards for 44 pts?)
The trend in betting lines the last 15 years, for the most part, is Spreads are getting lower and lower.
Part of it is Home Field advantage has gone down about 2 pts in calculations.
Sagarin used to use a Home Field factor of 2.9-3.1. This year he is down to 1.13. Imagine Home Field is now worth only 1 point.
A great example yesterday was Chargers versus Broncos goes off at 2.5
The favorite won, but in years past that line would have been 3. Most games back in the day went off at either 3,4,7 & 10.
Was the book giving money away? No. They want to generate action. They want people to take sides on a game. Thats why we see so many 2.5 & 3.5's now.
They also want people to buy into additional juice. They know that the NFL is not outcome certain. Just look at Falcons-Panthers outcome yesterday. Or New Orleans Seattle.( New Orleans held Seattle to 320 yards for 44 pts?)
@brn2loslive2win Great observations, all accurate. The trend in betting lines the last 15 years, for the most part, is Spreads are getting lower and lower. Part of it is Home Field advantage has gone down about 2 pts in calculations. Sagarin used to use a Home Field factor of 2.9-3.1. This year he is down to 1.13. Imagine Home Field is now worth only 1 point. A great example yesterday was Chargers versus Broncos goes off at 2.5 The favorite won, but in years past that line would have been 3. Most games back in the day went off at either 3,4,7 & 10. Was the book giving money away? No. They want to generate action. They want people to take sides on a game. Thats why we see so many 2.5 & 3.5's now. They also want people to buy into additional juice. They know that the NFL is not outcome certain. Just look at Falcons-Panthers outcome yesterday. Or New Orleans Seattle.( New Orleans held Seattle to 320 yards for 44 pts?)
Good to hear from you TJZ. Always appreciate your responses.
Where did you see that Sagarins rankings are using 1.13 for HFA? Looking at his rankings page (I think I’m looking at the right one?) for 2025, I see that he still uses 2.11 for HFA?
@brn2loslive2win Great observations, all accurate. The trend in betting lines the last 15 years, for the most part, is Spreads are getting lower and lower. Part of it is Home Field advantage has gone down about 2 pts in calculations. Sagarin used to use a Home Field factor of 2.9-3.1. This year he is down to 1.13. Imagine Home Field is now worth only 1 point. A great example yesterday was Chargers versus Broncos goes off at 2.5 The favorite won, but in years past that line would have been 3. Most games back in the day went off at either 3,4,7 & 10. Was the book giving money away? No. They want to generate action. They want people to take sides on a game. Thats why we see so many 2.5 & 3.5's now. They also want people to buy into additional juice. They know that the NFL is not outcome certain. Just look at Falcons-Panthers outcome yesterday. Or New Orleans Seattle.( New Orleans held Seattle to 320 yards for 44 pts?)
Good to hear from you TJZ. Always appreciate your responses.
Where did you see that Sagarins rankings are using 1.13 for HFA? Looking at his rankings page (I think I’m looking at the right one?) for 2025, I see that he still uses 2.11 for HFA?
To your point- This has a major impact on the spreads that Vegas puts out.
Most people don't think a half point means anything.
Statistically 1/2 a point on every game over the long run is the difference between losing and winning (at -110 juice).
Key numbers ( at -110) need to be respected.
-2.5 at -110 has a Huge advantage over -3 at -105.
So average lines are down, making it easier for favorites to cover?
Trend wise, probably.
Yet Vegas never loses. Maybe they are on to something?
Maybe they flipped the script. They know American gamblers like underdogs, and have sold under dogs short?
The goal of the line maker is not to set perfect lines; its to generate action. Books want action; they cant lose with the vig over the long run. The only goal of the line is to generate action. They need the line to be competitive, of course, but do the care who wins the game in the long run? not really.
To your point- This has a major impact on the spreads that Vegas puts out.
Most people don't think a half point means anything.
Statistically 1/2 a point on every game over the long run is the difference between losing and winning (at -110 juice).
Key numbers ( at -110) need to be respected.
-2.5 at -110 has a Huge advantage over -3 at -105.
So average lines are down, making it easier for favorites to cover?
Trend wise, probably.
Yet Vegas never loses. Maybe they are on to something?
Maybe they flipped the script. They know American gamblers like underdogs, and have sold under dogs short?
The goal of the line maker is not to set perfect lines; its to generate action. Books want action; they cant lose with the vig over the long run. The only goal of the line is to generate action. They need the line to be competitive, of course, but do the care who wins the game in the long run? not really.
Im also thinking that the shorter lines are a reflection of the further XP, rate of missed XPs, and increased rate of 2pc attempts. Lines like 1, 1.5, 2, and 2.5 used to be less significant.
I know that for me previously if I was laying 2.5 I was expecting a minimum of a 3 point win. And on the other side if I was taking 2.5 I was giving the dog a good chance to win outright. Not the case anymore. It seems to be very common for a 1-2.5 point favorite to win and not cover. And for a 1-2.5 point dog to lose (consistently) and still cover the number.
Key numbers imo are changing rapidly from what we were used to years ago and it’s getting to the point where we may ignore them completely in the future?!
Im also thinking that the shorter lines are a reflection of the further XP, rate of missed XPs, and increased rate of 2pc attempts. Lines like 1, 1.5, 2, and 2.5 used to be less significant.
I know that for me previously if I was laying 2.5 I was expecting a minimum of a 3 point win. And on the other side if I was taking 2.5 I was giving the dog a good chance to win outright. Not the case anymore. It seems to be very common for a 1-2.5 point favorite to win and not cover. And for a 1-2.5 point dog to lose (consistently) and still cover the number.
Key numbers imo are changing rapidly from what we were used to years ago and it’s getting to the point where we may ignore them completely in the future?!
The goal of the line maker is not to set perfect lines; its to generate action. Books want action; they cant lose with the vig over the long run. The only goal of the line is to generate action.
Largely right but not 100% in today's day and age. Books Often over leverage sides and "need" teams. Finding yourself on this side is usually a good place to be
The goal of the line maker is not to set perfect lines; its to generate action. Books want action; they cant lose with the vig over the long run. The only goal of the line is to generate action.
Largely right but not 100% in today's day and age. Books Often over leverage sides and "need" teams. Finding yourself on this side is usually a good place to be
Key numbers imo are changing rapidly from what we were used to years ago and it’s getting to the point where we may ignore them completely in the future?!
All good points; the game has become more dynamic with a lot more variables to consider.
I also think that teams have tendencies. Andy Reid believes in FG's and Xp.
Dan Campbell believes in going for it on 4th down.
Winning teams rarely go for 2
Losing teams go for 2 alot more frequently.
i stick to hard fast rules, and dont deviate, and dont complain about the outcome.
I had Dallas over, and Pittsburgh over. Talk about bad beats!
I had Chargers -2.5 and Browns Ml. That was pure luck.
They all even out in long run. you really have to play where you have edges, even is so slight.
Key numbers imo are changing rapidly from what we were used to years ago and it’s getting to the point where we may ignore them completely in the future?!
All good points; the game has become more dynamic with a lot more variables to consider.
I also think that teams have tendencies. Andy Reid believes in FG's and Xp.
Dan Campbell believes in going for it on 4th down.
Winning teams rarely go for 2
Losing teams go for 2 alot more frequently.
i stick to hard fast rules, and dont deviate, and dont complain about the outcome.
I had Dallas over, and Pittsburgh over. Talk about bad beats!
I had Chargers -2.5 and Browns Ml. That was pure luck.
They all even out in long run. you really have to play where you have edges, even is so slight.
This trend has been going on for a while, post covid when sport betting took off and became mainstream. The more households its reaches the more the "average" bettor is entices.
The average person is going to take their 50-100$ whatever it may be and just like a stock or any other investment, they are going to put their 100$ on whatever gives them the best return.
Underdogs are the new favorites. There's clearly more "average guys" than "sharp guys" and all of their 100$ wagers add up. They are not going to lay 100$ on a favorite ML thats -225. When they can put 100$ on the +200 side and get a better return. This is their thought process. Hence why you see many favorites win but not cover.
It is no longer sharp to just bet underdogs, those days are long gone. Any of these website thay "give" you information on public betting trends and %s and all fake. Anyone on Twitter tourting this information ala betmgm bksports all of that crap, pregame.com thespread its ALL fake. These people are paid to promote and drum up business and get bettors to bet the side they really need.
When was the last time you walked into a casino and a host showed you directly to a hot video poker/slot machine that has had lots of play and no big payoutcasinos and sportsbook arnt in the business to give you information to help with your wagers. Its truly amazing how many people seek out this information and bet accordingly.
They are all being suckered in. And hence why you have favorites running the boards in almost every sport. Its not uncommon to have 10 of 14 mlb teams win as favorites on any given day. You'll never see 14 of 14 underdogs do it. The public and people in general will always put their money on what gives them a good return.
This trend has been going on for a while, post covid when sport betting took off and became mainstream. The more households its reaches the more the "average" bettor is entices.
The average person is going to take their 50-100$ whatever it may be and just like a stock or any other investment, they are going to put their 100$ on whatever gives them the best return.
Underdogs are the new favorites. There's clearly more "average guys" than "sharp guys" and all of their 100$ wagers add up. They are not going to lay 100$ on a favorite ML thats -225. When they can put 100$ on the +200 side and get a better return. This is their thought process. Hence why you see many favorites win but not cover.
It is no longer sharp to just bet underdogs, those days are long gone. Any of these website thay "give" you information on public betting trends and %s and all fake. Anyone on Twitter tourting this information ala betmgm bksports all of that crap, pregame.com thespread its ALL fake. These people are paid to promote and drum up business and get bettors to bet the side they really need.
When was the last time you walked into a casino and a host showed you directly to a hot video poker/slot machine that has had lots of play and no big payoutcasinos and sportsbook arnt in the business to give you information to help with your wagers. Its truly amazing how many people seek out this information and bet accordingly.
They are all being suckered in. And hence why you have favorites running the boards in almost every sport. Its not uncommon to have 10 of 14 mlb teams win as favorites on any given day. You'll never see 14 of 14 underdogs do it. The public and people in general will always put their money on what gives them a good return.
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