Going to start posting some of my sharper NFL picks weekly here. Feel free to have some open discourse, the more we talk about plays the better chance we all have of finding an edge. Call me a genius, call me a dumbass, it doesn't matter, having a great time either way.
Going to start posting some of my sharper NFL picks weekly here. Feel free to have some open discourse, the more we talk about plays the better chance we all have of finding an edge. Call me a genius, call me a dumbass, it doesn't matter, having a great time either way.
Obviously pretty early in the week, but a good time to start thinking about what we're going to do this weekend. Lines that stand out and can be expected to move before gameday:
-Colts -3.5: D. Jones came out looking like Andrew Luck so far this season, Tennessee has been more competitive than most expected, but still a ways away from winning games. Colts ML great for Parlay takers, Colts -3.5 (take -3 if you can find it) probably best ATS bet of the week.
Obviously pretty early in the week, but a good time to start thinking about what we're going to do this weekend. Lines that stand out and can be expected to move before gameday:
-Colts -3.5: D. Jones came out looking like Andrew Luck so far this season, Tennessee has been more competitive than most expected, but still a ways away from winning games. Colts ML great for Parlay takers, Colts -3.5 (take -3 if you can find it) probably best ATS bet of the week.
Pretty early in the week, but never too early to start thinking about how we’re going to play this weekend. Lines that stand out and more than likely will move before gameday:
-Dolphins +12.5/Under 49.5/Achane Carries/Yards/TD: Dolphins have struggled tremendously throughout the first two weeks, both offensively and defensively. Bills are definitely going to score on them, and I think most peoples initial reaction will be to bet the over. The reason I’m going with the under is that the Dolphins have yet to establish a run game, and I think McDaniels is going to use this game to establish Achane and maybe even a little Ollie Gordon III. Miami knows they can’t outshoot the Bills and will slow the pace of the game, game gets out of hand if Miami commits turnovers, but I think the focus will be on a penalty free, clean game.
-Giants +6.5: Giants Offense has looked its best in years, Chiefs bottom of AFC West first time in 5 seasons. Giants home opener, KC going to struggle with Giants front 4, going to need Mahomes to make quick throws. No Worthy, Giants +6.5 easy money, if Xavier Worthy plays it becomes more of a question mark.
-Steelers -1.5: Patriots continue to look like the most overrated team in the NFL going into week 3. Offense likely struggles to move the ball against Steelers defense, under 44.5 not a bad play either.
-Buccanears -6.5: Baker Mayfield has looked like a top 5 QB in the last 12 months, Jets missing Fields, Tyrod Taylor will struggle to move the ball. Jets defense not what it was in years past.
-Panthers +6.5: Loving this line with how the Panthers were able to finish out the game against the Cardinals in Week 2. Feels like a young team that will get better with each game this season. Falcons, although defense looked good against Minnesota, still have multiple issues on offense, and likely won’t hold teams to 0 Touchdowns in consecutive weeks.
Pretty early in the week, but never too early to start thinking about how we’re going to play this weekend. Lines that stand out and more than likely will move before gameday:
-Dolphins +12.5/Under 49.5/Achane Carries/Yards/TD: Dolphins have struggled tremendously throughout the first two weeks, both offensively and defensively. Bills are definitely going to score on them, and I think most peoples initial reaction will be to bet the over. The reason I’m going with the under is that the Dolphins have yet to establish a run game, and I think McDaniels is going to use this game to establish Achane and maybe even a little Ollie Gordon III. Miami knows they can’t outshoot the Bills and will slow the pace of the game, game gets out of hand if Miami commits turnovers, but I think the focus will be on a penalty free, clean game.
-Giants +6.5: Giants Offense has looked its best in years, Chiefs bottom of AFC West first time in 5 seasons. Giants home opener, KC going to struggle with Giants front 4, going to need Mahomes to make quick throws. No Worthy, Giants +6.5 easy money, if Xavier Worthy plays it becomes more of a question mark.
-Steelers -1.5: Patriots continue to look like the most overrated team in the NFL going into week 3. Offense likely struggles to move the ball against Steelers defense, under 44.5 not a bad play either.
-Buccanears -6.5: Baker Mayfield has looked like a top 5 QB in the last 12 months, Jets missing Fields, Tyrod Taylor will struggle to move the ball. Jets defense not what it was in years past.
-Panthers +6.5: Loving this line with how the Panthers were able to finish out the game against the Cardinals in Week 2. Feels like a young team that will get better with each game this season. Falcons, although defense looked good against Minnesota, still have multiple issues on offense, and likely won’t hold teams to 0 Touchdowns in consecutive weeks.
-Texans +1.5 (ML): Jaguars coming off a disheartening loss where their promising star WR looked like he didn’t want to be on the field along with Lawrence inability to make good decisions. Texans have been riddled with injuries, Stroud likely finds his footing at some point, could possibly be this game.
-Under 41.5 Saints/Seahawks, Seahawks -6.5: I know everyone is in agreement, Spencer Rattler is not an NFL level QB, and likely never will be. The reason I like this under is Saint’s likely struggle to score against a defense that allowed 17 points to a semi-healthy 49ers and 17 to a Steelers team that put up 35 Week 1. Expect this to finish somewhere around the 28-10 range, personally I believe the Seahawks -6.5 has a better chance than the under, but both great picks.
-Bengals +3.5: While I don’t believe Jake Browning is going to hold this team together, I think they pull this one out, and even if they don’t, can’t picture Minnesota (who can’t win by 2 scores with a starting QB) covering the 3.5. No Aaron Jones, going to be one of those games thats hard to watch but lots of betting opportunities here.
Just an initial look over, will be getting more in depth as the week goes on and lines settle in.
-Texans +1.5 (ML): Jaguars coming off a disheartening loss where their promising star WR looked like he didn’t want to be on the field along with Lawrence inability to make good decisions. Texans have been riddled with injuries, Stroud likely finds his footing at some point, could possibly be this game.
-Under 41.5 Saints/Seahawks, Seahawks -6.5: I know everyone is in agreement, Spencer Rattler is not an NFL level QB, and likely never will be. The reason I like this under is Saint’s likely struggle to score against a defense that allowed 17 points to a semi-healthy 49ers and 17 to a Steelers team that put up 35 Week 1. Expect this to finish somewhere around the 28-10 range, personally I believe the Seahawks -6.5 has a better chance than the under, but both great picks.
-Bengals +3.5: While I don’t believe Jake Browning is going to hold this team together, I think they pull this one out, and even if they don’t, can’t picture Minnesota (who can’t win by 2 scores with a starting QB) covering the 3.5. No Aaron Jones, going to be one of those games thats hard to watch but lots of betting opportunities here.
Just an initial look over, will be getting more in depth as the week goes on and lines settle in.
BOL but on one point I am puzzled. You mention how the Patriots will have trouble moving the ball on the Steelers' defense? I know it is a short sample but the Steeler defensive numbers are troubling.
Steelers' D is ranked 30th in points allowed, 29th against the run, 25th against the pass...TJ Watt's face should be on a milk carton as he does not have a sack...41 million per year doesn't buy much these days (a bonehead move)...clearly they miss Minkah Fitzpatrick and his 96 tackles which covered for a front 7 that couldn't stop the run and for corners who couldn't cover.
Jalen Ramsey had a pick last week and a few other good plays but he was also burned like toast. Stories out of Pittsburgh suggest they are a team in disarray. You might be right but the numbers so far don't show it.
There's no such thing as "hate speech" only those that hate free speech.
BOL but on one point I am puzzled. You mention how the Patriots will have trouble moving the ball on the Steelers' defense? I know it is a short sample but the Steeler defensive numbers are troubling.
Steelers' D is ranked 30th in points allowed, 29th against the run, 25th against the pass...TJ Watt's face should be on a milk carton as he does not have a sack...41 million per year doesn't buy much these days (a bonehead move)...clearly they miss Minkah Fitzpatrick and his 96 tackles which covered for a front 7 that couldn't stop the run and for corners who couldn't cover.
Jalen Ramsey had a pick last week and a few other good plays but he was also burned like toast. Stories out of Pittsburgh suggest they are a team in disarray. You might be right but the numbers so far don't show it.
I'm a big believer in betting against the trend, everything you said is completely true, I just don't expect Pittsburgh to end the year anywhere near the bottom in defensive efficiency. Also seems like every year we call out the downfall of the Steelers and Tomlin still manages to pull a 9-8 record out of his ass. Truthfully this pick has more to do with me believing the Pats are overrated than it has to do with the Steelers being good, was not impressed with how Pats looked against Miami or Oakland, have a feeling Rodgers will be able to pick their defense apart as well. I also think Ramsey will look better against Boutte than he did against Garrette Wilson and JSN.
I'm a big believer in betting against the trend, everything you said is completely true, I just don't expect Pittsburgh to end the year anywhere near the bottom in defensive efficiency. Also seems like every year we call out the downfall of the Steelers and Tomlin still manages to pull a 9-8 record out of his ass. Truthfully this pick has more to do with me believing the Pats are overrated than it has to do with the Steelers being good, was not impressed with how Pats looked against Miami or Oakland, have a feeling Rodgers will be able to pick their defense apart as well. I also think Ramsey will look better against Boutte than he did against Garrette Wilson and JSN.
Yeah, Rodger's mobility is definitely an issue, while Patriots sack % is high they also got to play two very iffy offensive lines that protect QBs who struggle to run. Rodgers is arguably the best pre-snap reader of defenses left in the NFL, I think Steelers adjust to the pressure, likely a big week for Calvin Austin with Patriots running a mix of press coverage/cover 2, along with Gonzalez likely matching up with Metcalf on most snaps. Either way, Steelers definitely one of the least confident picks I've listed.
Yeah, Rodger's mobility is definitely an issue, while Patriots sack % is high they also got to play two very iffy offensive lines that protect QBs who struggle to run. Rodgers is arguably the best pre-snap reader of defenses left in the NFL, I think Steelers adjust to the pressure, likely a big week for Calvin Austin with Patriots running a mix of press coverage/cover 2, along with Gonzalez likely matching up with Metcalf on most snaps. Either way, Steelers definitely one of the least confident picks I've listed.
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