Bouncebacks - Week 4

YTD: 2-2

New Orleans +17 (-120)

Atlanta +1.5 (-105)

Cincinnati +7.5 (-115)

Saints are included this week based on their getting blown out by more than four touchdowns on the road last week. In my 15-year database, there have been 13 bounceback teams in this situation getting 9+ points in their next game. Their ATS record is 11-2. SU, 6-7. In nine of the matchups, the favorite was an eventual playoff team; big dogs' ATS record was 7-2.

The +9 or greater dogs' record in all my situations is 42-31 ATS.

Subset: The record of dogs of +14 or greater is 16-10 ATS, 3-0 in the 11-2 group of dogs who lost on the road by four TDs or more while scoring more than single digits.

Away teams getting +9 or more have gone 19-21 ATS, home 23-10... away teams getting +14 or more have gone 9-8 ATS, home teams 7-2. However, in my 11-2 subset above, the away team is 6-1.

It's a lot points.

Definitely dont trust Buff -17..but betting on the saints. No thanks. Like Bengals, Nix doesnt deserve to be -7.5 fav. Sophmore slump

Arizona

Im on New Orleans too at 16.5. Its just rare for anyone to cover these huge numbers and the Bills with Allen typically dont. Its easy to see where they go up 24-3 or 24-7 at the half and the game ends 30-16 or something like that

Good luck GT.  

Added two plays.

Green Bay -6.5, tailing theclaw, but I was already inclined to believe that GB can get well against that defense.

Arizona +2 tonight. Is Seattle's defense for real? They've played the Niners, Steelers and Saints. Will Darnold play like playoff Darnold?