Bears at Commanders

some trends to start:

Bears are 1-10-1 ATS last 12.

Bears are 1-4 ats on the road for TNF. Commanders are 4-1 straight up at home on TNF.

Commanders are 12-3 ats against the Bears the last 15 games.

Unders are 14 of 16 at home and 12 of 14 in week 5 for Commanders.

Bears defense sucks so the over has hit 12 of last 15 games.

Where do we go from here? Public seems to be fading the Bears and the line drops to 5.5 from 6. I like the under but if Howell could move the ball against PHilly what's he going to put up against Chicago? Both teams played the Broncos with damn near identical results, except commanders had a comeback win and bears lost their huge lead to lose. These 2 ran 29th and 31st in the league for points allowed. I said his about the MNF game and it went under thanks to the giants. I will pass on the total this game for that reason lol.

Anyways, do I see the bears winning? No. Do I see the Commanders winning by a td on a short week giving up 30pts a game? No

I'm going with a middle here.

Bears +12/Commanders PK/Niners +2.5 (+180)

Good luck gang

I would like to understand how trends can play a role in capping. I see it like roulette. Just because the ball landed on black 500 times, doesnt mean all of a sudden the odds change. 

So if team x is 1-50 ats at home then im not betting on the team per se, im actually betting on the pattern/trend? 

GL 

The Trend can be your Friend if your capping the correct trend.

Since Nov 2017, the under is 6-0 when the commanders are favored by more than 4 points.

214 yards to 12. Turn off the tv

@SPark1

 Not any more ??

Bears leading by 16 they don't have to score anymore. 

I have also strong trends since 1996 commander are 4-0-0 under has home favorit after a lost on the road last 3 years. total move 43.5 to 45.5