Be OK with losing........It Is Profitable

Is this a common theme in your betting strategy? To sell multiple points? Are the amount of points that you sell based on key numbers? What would make you sell to -7 instead of -6.5? Would you agree that selling to -6.5 gives you a better chance of winning(understood that the price is significantly better when you lay 7)? Would you consider in that scenario to make two bets, one at -6.5 and one at -7 just as added protection?

Ty for the insight. I always enjoy reading your posts 

@unplucked_gem

 Here’s a bonus question-

Do you believe that key numbers in the NFL are becoming less significant with the amount of 2pt attempts and the amount of missed XPs? Seems that 1 and 2 point margins are becoming a regular occurrence.

@brn2loslive2win

 Sport dependent but probably 75% of my wagers are alternate lines.  Strictly as a matter of personal preference, I try to avoid half points when I can. Half point losses are the only thing that historically tilts me and I am perfectly ok with pushes (6.5 vs. 7 question). 

There is an amount of finesse involved in pushing the line but not too far, which is where my reliance on the model comes into play.  Then it would all depend on the book number vs. what the model says.  I have been reliant on the same sharp for modeling the last 7 years and to me the model is proven. 

Does it always win, no.  But again, I am process driven to make sound wagers with little concern over what I cannot control (in this case outcome).  If the book line is -3 and the model says -9, anything -6 to -9 becomes prudent.

Van has a much more robust take on key numbers than I do.  I honestly do not pay attention or care. 

Does it hurt me, can't say.  What I do works and more importantly works for me.  To completely toot my own horn (not really just most recent posted example) the model saw a blow out in the super bowl and we cashed in nicely.  But to your bonus question, I have become cognizant of the XP problems and often will err on the side of caution and move to -6 rather than -7. 

In the end my average odds puts me at needing 43-45% to be profitable and I tend to hit anywhere from 48.5-55% over any given 1000 wagers.

Here is Van's post about the keys.  Please be guided accordingly:

Key number distribution chart from the 2022 regular nfl season - key numbers - NFL Betting Forum | Covers

Thanks for the collaborative and thoughtful conversation.  

@unplucked_gem

 I have gathered some wonderful information over the years from guys like van and yourself. This is what covers should be about. The other nonsense should be left at the door. 

I'd be interested to see your alt lines before the games start.

I saw on you tube that favorites -4 or better have not lost any game SU.

That is one reason favorites are covering as you said, teams win SU cover far more then not.

Only 2 teams -3 or better lost SU as well.

When the line is -3 or less the winning team covers about 90% of the time.  I once tracked it over a period of time at 95%.

How often the dog wins SU I don't know but will be many that do.

I just saw on you tube about buying 1/2 pts talking about situations it is worth doing so.

I believe buying to key numbers can be a good thing as I have lost many times by that 1/2 to a key number.

I buy only to get a push VS getting a loss.  Protecting your money is just as big even can be bigger then winning money.

I never buy to get a win VS a push Because a push protects my money.

In week 3, teams that won, covered, in 11 of the 15 games with Balt / Det pending.  Exceptions were Buffalo, Tampa Bay, San Fran, and LAC who pushed.  As this is tracking and not prognostication, using the covers' lines for simplicity.  I know many won or lost Buffalo and LAC with better lines.  

Favorites are killing me again this year. Line shopping, CLV, hours of handicapping, referring to proven model predictions just isn’t bringing me any success anymore and tbh I’m beginning to lose enjoyment in doing the work. I just made a thread about favs vs dogs. Wtf is going on here?!?

@unplucked_gem

 Would love to chat about this as I’ve seen similar systems. How can we connect? 

 #1 @unplucked_gem 

Sorry all, it cut the remainder of my post off.  Teams that won and their margin of cover (dogs in bold):

Carolina +35, Washington +14, Indy +15, Minn +35, Pitt +6, Jax +5.5, Clev +10.5, Philly +3.5, Sea +23, Chicago +18, KC +7

Continuing the point that you do not have to buy what the books are selling!!!!

Also, in a different thread there was talk about a "Chalk Buffet" and how it is a bad idea.  Well, the paint fed the masses and went:

12-3 (80%) straight up 

8-6-1 (57.14%*) ATS *push was taken out of %

@HelloAce

With cover's current setup and procedures, we're limited to here.  We can bounce ideas here or if you want to start a thread that's cool too.  

@brn2loslive2win

I saw that and it's a great thread.

I hear you; it is a grind with 90 % of the work being done before the bet is placed and 10 % post bet diagnosis work.  Amazes me how much energy is spent on here talking about the one aspect no one can control (the game).

I am curious of the modeling you refer to is of your own creation or leased.  

NFL Favorites v Underdogs ATS Records - 2024

Last years numbers (the best I could find).  The way that I was taught, this isn't statistically significant and within the natural ebb and flow of things.  I have a few more questions, thoughts, ideas but do not want to be/sound preachy......well more preachy

ready set go on any dog you have two ways of cashing a dog of 5 loses by or s/u wins the game for you 

a favorite must win by more than spread no matter what it is - 2- 5 - 6 - 10 

any team must have a solid o line and defense to stop the other team from scoring and you need TD's to win games NOT 3's 

teams that always change corrdinators hurt the QB the browns are worst with dozens of new qb's hc's wonder why teams always win because they keep same hc's coordinators for years proof look at Chiefs Eagles Ravens Bills packers 

teams that always fail just do not know how to draft or have vetran qb to teach new kid coming in as beras flopped miserably sold the farm to gat caleb williams like ok they put his stats up sun he had 4 td's but past 19 games only 4 tds toatal 

and his vet QB is case keenum omfg 

other teams just trying oout old vet qb's ummmmmmmm n they fail quickly beacuse they are slow 

with butt fawk hc's like these guys cardinals jonathan gannon falcons raheem morris who just ate a fat bagel @ carolina

panthers 4 diff hc's in past 10 years

bears 5 diff hc's in 10 ears 

browns 5 diff ones still sticking with kevin stefanski went 3 n 14 last year 

cowboys new guy brain schteenhimer will he say what dad did feel the gleem men feel the gleem lol 

broncos 5 diff hcs 

lions 3 diff ones 

colts 3 all bums pagano frank reich now shane stechen 

jaguars as they say in nyc fuggedabouttit now 6 dif hc's and forever suck playing in london 

raiders 5 now trying our old boy pete carrol g bach to oakland you had an idenity 

chargers 4 but harbugh in 2nd year 

dolphins 5 mc daniels in 4th year great strt 0-3 s/u n vs spread 

saints only 3 kellen moore rookie in ummmmmmmmm 0-3 start 

giants 5 sticking with daboll won 8 games past 2 years 

the jets ooooooooooo yeah 5 new guy in AAron glenn 0-3 start lost to  bucs but covered with blocked fg return for td 

bucs 4 n dont worry todd bowels will figure out how to lose in po's lost in pos to cowboys @ detroit home chlk to wash 

ten titans 4 brian callhan in 2nd year 0-3 start seee ya 

wash 4 now all stiffs jay gruden ron rivera dan quinn 2nd year and thats it folks 

Feel free to preach brother. I’m here to listen and learn!

@unplucked_gem

 Thx for the advice last night....one of the most learning helpful threads Ive ever read here, major respect...

This is a great thread. Something I've thought about but havent incorporated much in my process and know I should. 

I have a theory about the favorites covering, particularly road favorites. No idea if this has any merit though. My possible theory is that a lot of bettors have now come into the market and probably learned what I did when I started, which was, laying points on the road is normally a bad idea. I have always been averse to taking road faves since I started betting. It served me well for many years, but the past 2 years have been different. Im wondering if the betting public just loves home dogs and dogs in general more than they love faves now and therefore the road favorites are priced much lower than they historically wouldve been and therefore are covering more. 

@skoonr3

Flashscore is a solid resource.

Depending on league home teams win at a high %.  However, you can usually identify teams in good form with consistent goal differential.  In those instances where there's great value, it's worth it to minimally cover the tie (in my opinion).

Any way you dice it, 90+ goal is a bad beat.

@Yanasaur

"No idea if this has any merit though."

Of course it does.  Definitely agree on pricing. I would add the one thing that I have noticed but cannot correlate is the Running Clock.  I am convinced this plays a role in possessions / time of possession / etc but the stats aren't showing it.  So who knows.

@unplucked_gem

 Im glad you think so, so its not just me. I need to start looking at road faves and faves in general more. 

What is your theory about how running clock would affect things? Maybe leads to faves covering more bc faves are more likely to get more first downs and have longer possessions? Therefore it extends the time of possession advantage they have since the dog would have less available time remaining to them?