Record stands @ 6-6 - 605.00. A week ago I was - 7,250 to being up + 2,300 yesterday. This is the only way I play , is to really win and not play around. This time in 2023 I went on a roll and won close to 50 k buy late march. It takes me all day long to cap just one game sometimes, win or lose. Today we have two teams playing each other in a win or go home game. I capped this game with and without D.K. Metcalf playing. Him playing , my numbers say Pitt should be favs by - 0.23 pts. D.K. not playing, I have Balt only favs by 1.57 pts. I haven’t capped too many games all year with the SOS , defensive, offensive and special teams being as close as we will see tonight. Lamar is back ( injury ) , as well as Watt ( injury ) as well, but both will play. The X factor tonight will be Derrick Harmon though. When he plays Pit has the # 1 rush defense league wide. They only give up 3.4 yards per carry, when he was out , they gave up 4.5 yards per carry, huge difference! There is an edge defensively though , DVOA has Pittsburghs defense @ a - 6.1 % compared to Balt’s + 0.2 %. The more negative the number the better the defense is. The L 6 home games Pitt is an excellent 6/6 ATS with 4 winning SU. Tomlin has amazing trends at as a dog , especially @ home. Pitt is 7-2 SU vs Balt, L 9 games. Balts secondary ranks 20th vs the passing yds allowed. In the 1st game , Rodger’s passer rating was a whopping 103.1 Of course D.K. Was his main target that game but , with Marlon Humphrey out tonight, Balt’s pass defense gets even worse. SNF home dogs are 31-23 ATS this year. Now for the under. Pit & Balt are the 28th & 29th slowest teams in the league. It’s around 27 degrees in Pittsburgh. Pitt will dink and dunk and run the ball and Balt will run Henry all night long. This is a division game , winner take all , who both play very similar to each other. These teams , coaches know each other extremely well , and I just don’t see 6 TD’s and a FG here tonight. The clock will be ticking the majority of every quarter without a lot of stoppage time. Tons of trends support the Under as well, too many to list. This is going to be a rock fight, low scoring game that probably comes down to a FG either way. Going Pitt + 3.5 and Under 42. 4,400/4,000 1,180/1,000 ( buy ) & 540/500 , 360/300 ( buy ) GL
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