Anyone want to talk about the Steelers and Browns?

There's a lot to dissect in this game. A lot more than the average Joe would think if you dig in.

The obvious:

DK Metcalf is suspended. 

Quinshon Judkins broke his leg.

Pittsburgh can clinch the Afc North with a win or a Ravens loss this week.

The Browns are well out of the playoff picture. They are currently holding the #3 overall pick of the 2026 nfl draft.

Myles Garrett is a 1/2 sack away from tying the all time single season sack record. 

The Steelers have won 3 in a row, the Browns have lost 4 in a row. The Browns are 1-6 su since their week 9 bye, just brutal. 

In their first meeting in week 6, the Steelers won 23-9. The Browns managed just 3 FG's with Dillon Gabriel starting at QB. He had 52 pass attempts and was sacked 6 times. The Browns could not run the ball for shit, with 17 carries for 65 yards.

The Steelers also had 3 FG's, with 2 TD passes, one of which was to DK Metcalf. Rodgers was 21 of 30 passing for 235 yards, no sacks, with a 115.3 qb rating. Metcalf was targeted 9 times but hauled in only 4 for 95 yards. Pitt had 100 rush yards on 25 carries.

The Steelers were -6 at home in this game.

The look ahead for this game was -4.5. It went down to 3.5 and back to 4.5. Bounced around some more, back to 3.5 and back. On December 21st it hit 5, and has steadily come down to 3.5 and 3 in places.

Current line is Pitt -3(-115) and a few cheaper 3.5's are still around. 

Who in their right mind was or still is betting on the Browns? It can't be the public. *disclaimer, sharps can be wrong as well*

A few more thoughts later 

Yeah I got lucky to grab Browns +185 yesterday (they still have to win tho), its down to +138 up to +155 ive just seen.

If the Ravens lose Saturday, Steelers can go thru the motions with Balty, but if Ravens win, then the pressure is on Pitt to win & they dont have Metcalf. 

@undermysac

 Browns potentially wanna keep the tank on for a top 3 pick

Steelers likely win who knows if they cover 

Another angle is lot of penalties go against steelers to keep game close. League wouldnt hate a steelers/ravens for the division game

Things that favor the Browns:

This will be the Browns 4th home game in the last 5 weeks.

It will be Pitt's 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks.

There's no way to measure this next thought, but they are division rivals who hate each other. The Browns can play spoiler if that's the motivation that they are seeking, if at all. I don't know.

Aaron Rodgers this year is much worse vs man coverage than zone. The Browns run man coverage more than any other team at 45%. We know he had success against them in week 6 where he had DK Metcalf. Metcalf is the ultimate wr against man coverage imo.

Rodgers vs man:

55% comp(#23), passer rating 94.4(#22).

The Steelers haven't seen Shedeur Sanders yet. There's no doubt that he's rough around the edges and still a raw talent on the nfl level. Fwiw, Sanders is much better against man coverage than zone. The Steelers run man coverage at the 6th highest rate at 31.2%.

Sanders vs man passer rating 103.0, vs 57.5 vs zone.

This makes total sense. Rodgers is the older veteran who understands coverages, so finding holes in the zone is second nature to him. Sanders is young and athletic who doesn't understand coverages as well on an NFL level yet, so getting the ball to a wr in one on one coverage is easier for him.

The Dawg Pound factor.

For defensive purposes mostly, the Brown play much better at home.

The opposing passer's completion percentage is 5.2% lower, YPA 7.7 otr, 6.1 at home, qbr 108.5 otr, 75.5 at home. The Browns have 7 interceptions at home vs 3 otr.

The Browns give up 19.4 ppg at home, vs 27.4 ppg on the road.

Miles Garrett breaks the sack record versus Rodgers for the history books and the defense comes through with a straight up win in a tight game.. what good is a record without a win versus a divisional opponent..

I think Baltimore loses versus Greenbay.. Lamar is banged up with a contusion tightness on his back and spasms Henry is in his head..Ravens defense is terrible.. 0-7 when they allow 20 points or more..the only other teams that are winless when they allow 20points or more are the Raiders Browns and Giants.. 

Things that favor the Steelers:

The Browns are just terrible, and have been recently by most metrics.

Per dvoa, the Browns are 32nd, and 32nd by weighted dvoa.

They are 32nd in offensive dvoa, and 32nd in special teams dvoa. Only their defense has given them any hope this year ranking #5.

At this point in the year when a team is being carried by one unit, you have to expect for that unit to give up eventually. They may have already. Or does this rivalry give them a reason to play hard? Perhaps Myles sack record will as well. 

Pitt is ranked #10 in weighted dvoa.

Browns Superbowl...of sorts, which leads me to believe they will give a honest effort.

Cleveland is 5-2 ats at home. 4-1 as a home dog.

Pittsburgh is 3-4 ats away. 1-2 as away favorites.

Historically, when the Browns are a home underdog of 0 to 5 points vs the Steelers, they are:

3-5-1 SU, 4-2-3 ATS, 6-2-1 O/U

I'm thinking this as well. Will have to read reports from the beat writers to see what players and coaches are saying to get a feel.

Cause if they aren't motivated, we'll be stepping into a beat down most likely. Watching the Browns last few games has been an ugly and painful watch.

It's in the Browns best interest for Shadeur Sanders to play lights out. They still haven't figured out their QB situation. Who knows, it could be Deshaun Watson when he comes back. I'd reckon the Browns would prefer to find an out to having to keep Watson. I read that the Browns are expected to restructure Watson's deal once again, then cut him as a post-June 1 designation after the 2026 season. So if the team can see some growth in Sanders in the last 2 games, that could potentially save them to look for yet another QB in the upcoming draft. (They are the team, afterall, that drafted 2 QBs in the same draft. Who's to say they wouldn't draft another one in the next?)

The point I'm trying to get at is that the Browns defense is still going to play at an above average level and there's no reason for Sanders, and the coaching staff behind him, to want to tank. There's also rumblings that Stefanski may be let go. There's no incentive for him to tank and not bear the fruits of that effort (or lack thereof).

Couple this with the fact that this is a divisional game, and the Steelers looking very unformidable with ol' man Rodgers and an absent Metcalf, I could easily the Browns keeping this within a score -- Judkins or no Judkins. Keep an eye on Raheim Sanders filling in behind Dylan Sampson. (I like the former better from what I've seen.)

@ChOmP

 I'm on GB already at -2.5, you on board yet or waiting for qb reports?

@iConsciousness

 That's an interesting angle, seems valid. I like it.

Are you gonna start a thread for the Chargers and Texans game?

You better 

@undermysac

 Love your analysis  and thoughts and how deep you dig into this. One thing i'll add is that cleveland is about a 2 hour drive from pittsburgh which means steelers nation will be invading the dog pound with the terrible towels. 

If Ravens lose Saturday night, Steelers dont need to show up vs Browns, they can rest their starters for final two games.

Golden opportunity for Steelers to put the Ravens away with a win, but like in the Bond movies, one of their henchman intentionally fcks up and the main villain gets more satisfaction laying in wait to get the pleasure to try killing Bond himself.

That henchman is DK as in DeKaylin, not DigitalKarma yours truly 

Love the discussion and breakdowns Sac, you've been more active with these lately I noticed 

Malik or Love doesn’t matter..LaFleur can scheme it up Greenbay at home has to win to make it in at this point I have more trust in GB than I do in BAL.. somethings not right with the Ravens they just don’t look good at all.. Coaching.. Quarterback play.. Defense.. 

Im in.. Greenbay -2.5

The quarterback Sanders has got a nasty cut on his finger that he got from last week's game so I'll be really surprised if he was playing because it was terrible.

SB  browns 

One thing you won't see in this game is A-Rod laying down for Myles Garret to reach sack record.