Aardvark week 11 picks

Week 8 (3-1)
Week 9 (0-0)
Week 10 (3-1)

WAS @ MIA (Spain): MIA -2.5
CAR @ ATL: CAR +3.5, Under 42
CIN @ PIT: CIN +5.5, Over 49
CHI @ MIN: MIN -3

WAS @ MIA: Talk about 2 teams you cannot trust. WAS offense is in a bad spot with Daniels out and without WRs Burks, McCaffrey, and McLaurin in the passing game. They avg 3.7 YPC the last 3 games (although against good defenses in KC, DET, SEA). MIA defense is not good, giving up 26 pts/game (21 pts last 4 games), and would in general say cannot be trusted. In 2 of their wins against ATL and BUF, limited them to 2.6 and 4.0 YPC, and see a similar type of defensive performance. MIA offense has been feast or famine lately, but think this matchup suits them well, as long as Tua limits the TOs. DT Payne is suspended, DBs Amos and Lattimore recently went on IR. WAS gives up 4.6 YPC, has given up the 1st most yards to WR, and 3rd most yards to RBs. Outside of week 1 against NYG (6 points)  and week 5 against LAC (10 points), all other teams scored 24+ (26 pts/game last 5 games). Overall, this is more of a gut feel that MIA offense will put up points and the defense will stop the run game again: MIA 27, WAS 20.

CAR @ ATL: Another 2 teams that cannot be trusted. CAR offense only succeeds when they can run the ball (4.6 YPC, 5th most yards all season), as Young hasn't thrown for more than 200 yards all season with the exception of week 2 (102 yds/game last 2 games). This bodes well against an ATL defense that 4.9 YPC, with only one team not eclipsing 100+ yards against them. ATL will be without LB Floyd and DE Harrison is Q, this may give them more room to run and slow down the pass rush. ATL offense to this point has underachieved, given the weapons at RB, WR, TE. The line will be without G Bergeron, and G Linstrom is Q which will limit the run game. CAR defense has given up points, but last 4 weeks avg 19 pts/game last 4 weeks. They are league avg in terms of opponents YPC (4.4) and pass yds/game (212). What they do poorly is generate pressure and get sacks (28th in the league). I see a grind out game: CAR 20, ATL 17.

CIN @ PIT: Fireworks and scoring, keep riding CIN over until they don't hit. CIN offense since Flacco took over: 33 pts/game, 300 yds passing/game, 2.75 passing TDs/game, 5.5 YPC (vs 3.1 before). Obviously the scoring is because the defense is atrocious, but they will be going against a "not your father's" Steelers defense, as they ae allowing 24 pts/game. The Steelers Run D and pass rush D is still good (3rd in the league in sacks), but they are giving up the 2nd most yards to WR and have allowed Qbs to pass for more than 250 yards 6 times. With CB Slay out, and LBs Holcomb and Highsmith O as well, Cin offense lights them up again with the weapons they have. PIT offense has only succeeded when the defense is forcing TOs, Rogers has yet to throw for more than 250 yards and they average 3.8 YPC (best game was against CIN). But it's the CIN defense, which gives up 33 pts/game, 5.4 YPC (166 yds/game), high QBR, and will be without ED Hendrickson and DI Stewart is on IR If dogshit was in the dictionary, this defense would be the picture. I like CIN coming off a bye, where the last 3 years they are 3-0: CIN 31, PIT 27. 

CHI @ MIN: Is CHI a pretender or contender? They have only played 1 team with a winning record (DET week 2), their 3 losses are to teams with a combined record of 14-13 (6-3 DET, 4-5 MIN, 4-5 BLT with Lamar), and their 6 wins to teams with a combined record of 15-41. CHI offense has done well in terms of protecting Caleb (only 14 sacks on the year with below avg pressure %), and avg 5.0 YPC, overall a pretty balanced offense. The MIN defense has not been great, giving up 24 pts/game and 29 pts/game last 4 games (did play PHI, DET, LAC, BLT). I believe the key to CHI offense is their defense. The CHI defense in games that they have won avg 3.1 TO/game, in games they lost avg 0.3 TO/game. Obviously the turnover margin is a huge factor when it comes to winning, which brings us to the MIN offense. McCarthy has not looked good since his return the last 2 games, throwing for 3 INT and a completion % of 51%. But what has looked good is the run game, avg 5.6 YPC the last 2 weeks. I expect the MIN run game to get going early so help McCarthy and limit situations for him to turn the ball over, and selectively target Jefferson/Nailor/Addison/Hockenson. The CHI defense gives up 5.2 YPC, and the only 2 teams that did not rush for more than 120 yards were NO and CIN (2 of the top 5 worst running teams). MIN 24, CHI 20.

Good luck AP.  

A