4th down decisions just feel different now

back then head coaches would punt on fourth and short almost every time, especially when their defense was playing great and the offense couldn’t move the ball. it was basically common sense. now i see coaches like mike mcdaniel and dan campbell going for it on fourth down when they’re only down one score with plenty of time left, even at midfield, like they have no other option. and what happened to taking the easy points, like a short field goal in those situations? i feel like their reliance on ai and analytics is starting to outweigh their own judgment. i’m sure the tools help a lot, but the head coach is watching the game live and sometimes knows better than what the numbers say. it almost feels like every decision now is analytics driven, even when it doesn’t make sense.

You have to think like this, sometimes they miss FG's too. Its still a 'chance' to take. Its not 'guaranteed' 

I like how he had no problem punting and kicking a field goal at the end of the game 

But its Dan Campbell. T

If him going for it in 4th down was a prop play I would be fricky rich.

@Ppkay

 maybe someone he knows bet on 'Overtime YES' :P 

a) math and analytics are given more credence and this plays into a lot of it

b) if your defense is trash, sometimes going for it on offense is the right idea.  if their offense is terrible, sometimes punting them deep into their own territory is the right idea

c) some coaches are little fraidy cats and punt.  others arent and go more often

@jefff

yeah i get what youre saying. analytics definitely play a big role now, but sometimes the context gets ignored. like if your defense is struggling or the other teams offense cant do anything, you would think coaches would lean into the field position game. the defense already got them good spots a couple times and they still refuse to take the easy field goal and keep forcing short yardage tries. and honestly if you already failed twice on the same kind of fourth down in the same game, why try a third time. at that point it feels less like strategy and more like something id do on a madden game just messing around. i dont know man, some of these decisions make no sense.

Analytics are just a new way/excuse to steal the big money on the game or coming in live during the game. Wake up boys!

It's a way to cover their azzes when these decisions make no sense at all.

Dan Campbell is a stubborn coach.  His dependence on going for it on 4th down is directly correlated with how successful he has been.  BUT, when you are playing a defense like that of the Eagles, not like that of the Redskins, things are different.  I too watched the game and thought had he attempted those FG's, which really weren't all that long, and hit them, they would have been right there with a chance to win.  As it turned down the stubborn one will point to exactly that, despite his decisions they still had a chance to win.  But the smart ones will say it should be a "case by case" approach not a "blanket approach".  He has one of the best kickers and for all I heard about the wind, it didn't seem like they were having the issues of the kickers in the GB/NYG game.  

But no doubt, going for it on 4th down every time will just not be sustainable in a game that affords you only 4 downs before giving the ball back.  He's been self-righteous vs. the cellar dwellers, even going for it on his side of the field.  I think if they take the same approach vs. Minnesota for example, they will see a similar setback.  Plus Goff isn't really mobile so you have one option less.

@artuk99

 Im sure Lions sports radio was ablaze with fans screaming What is Campbell doing?

if by now you mean the last 5 years at least, then yeah... It sucks and I hate it. Going for it on 4th down works way less than what the analytics say on the stupid graphics. A lot of the stats are from when it was done less often and catch teams a bit off guard.

Now we have kickers missing FGs more often too, maybe cuz they get way less reps? Also moving the PAT back was stupid and unnecessary.

We now have way more missed PATs and this results in coaches going for 2 more and more and that can mean 2 TDs only getting 12 points.

We also have this idiotic trend of teams down 14 going for 2 if they score a TD instead of just making it a 7 pt game. I absolutely hate that and think it makes very little sense. I seen like one game where it worked almost every other time they missed the 2 pter.

Now we end up with way more weird scores. I guess these things even out in the long run but it usually seems to screw you when you're laying points.

The tin foil hat guy in me thinks it's all done on purpose since these trends pretty much coincided with betting becoming legal.

Between that crap and guys throwing the ball away at the one yard line or going down on purpose, it makes betting less and less appealing. Idiot coaches and dumb jocks being dumber than ever. Since betting has become mainstream it's just seemed lame to me. It's just a total scam you're just being force fed advertisements all game while you are glued to the screen because you're betting on it.

Parlays and props are gonna send you to the poor house but it's the most popular bets now. People are suckers.

@artuk99

 Detroit lions were constantly losong 70% of their games every season and now a contenders. Maybe, check the overall results of it instead of just when it doesnt work out for them 

THIS 10000% It's total BS. You still take the points when you need to take the points. If you've tried it from the 3 yard line in 3 attempts, probably best to kick the damn FG. But hey it's analytics. Whatever 

Not shitting on Dan Campbell, he got the Lions back to relevance with that same aggression. If those 4th downs worked, I’d be calling him a genius, but three failures later… I’m just salty I lost my ticket. Still, like Buttlove said, seeing teams pull risky 4th down tries and 2 point attempts all because of analytics is annoying. Maybe some like it, I don’t.

I remember Belichick going for it on a Sunday nighter against the Colts on his own 30 about 10 years back and he was considered nuts at the time, but someone of his standing rolling the dice began to legitimize it; that game last night is an example of the trend going haywire-sure Campbell has turned around the Lions but his playcalling will be a barrier to the Lions winning the big one!