?? October 22, 2025
??? American Airlines Center – Dallas, TX
The post-Luka era in Dallas officially begins tonight, and the atmosphere at the American Airlines Center already feels different. Luka Doncic may be chasing rings in Los Angeles now, but the Mavericks are ready to prove they’re still a serious Western Conference player. Jason Kidd’s new-look team — led by Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving — brings star power, experience, and a hunger to establish chemistry early in the season.
San Antonio, meanwhile, continues its long-term rebuild under Gregg Popovich. The Spurs have plenty of young talent, energy, and promise, but they’re still searching for consistency, especially away from home. Pop’s group plays hard but often fades late in games, a problem that could be magnified against a Dallas squad that knows how to close.
Recent meetings between these two teams have mostly gone Dallas’s way, with the Mavs winning all of last season’s encounters by comfortable margins of six to eight points. They’ve repeatedly exposed San Antonio’s defensive rotations and lack of interior strength — areas that Anthony Davis can easily exploit if he stays aggressive in the paint.
Form-wise, Dallas has looked sharp when healthy. Kyrie Irving’s preseason performance as the primary playmaker was encouraging, and the new supporting cast around him and Davis has provided solid spacing. The Mavs are averaging around 115–118 points per game, with improved balance between perimeter shooting and interior scoring. San Antonio, on the other hand, sits closer to 110 points per game, struggling with mid-range efficiency and turnover control.
Home-court advantage should matter, too. The American Airlines Center has been a fortress for the Mavericks, where they won roughly 65% of their home games last season. The Spurs, meanwhile, managed to win only about 20% on the road. That built-in advantage — roughly worth three points by betting models — nearly covers the entire spread by itself.
In terms of roster health, Dallas enters in solid shape. Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving are both active and expected to log heavy minutes. Grant Williams has been an underrated two-way contributor off the bench, giving Dallas the kind of defensive toughness it lacked last season. The Spurs, conversely, are missing a few rotation pieces, including Melton and Sochan, and Popovich has hinted at giving his rookies extended minutes — something that could be risky against a veteran Mavericks squad.
Oddsmakers currently list Dallas as a -2.5 favorite, hovering between -110 and -115 depending on the sportsbook. That number feels slightly short given the talent disparity and home advantage. Bettors have been leaning toward the Mavericks since open, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the line climb to -3 before tipoff.
If the Mavericks start strong — as they often do at home — expect the live line to move quickly. Dallas tends to play up-tempo first quarters, pushing the pace early, while San Antonio prefers to slow the game down. If the Spurs manage to control tempo, the under could become interesting in live betting markets, but otherwise, this matchup sets up well for a confident Dallas cover.
Overall, the Mavericks check nearly every important box: home edge, roster depth, veteran leadership, and superior late-game execution. The Spurs may have plenty of fight, but they’re still a few steps behind teams like Dallas when it comes to poise and physicality.
Final Pick: Dallas Mavericks -2.5
?? Cover Probability: ~62%
?? Projected Final Score: Dallas 116 – San Antonio 109
Fun fact: Dallas has covered the spread in seven of its last nine home games against San Antonio. As they like to say in Texas — “Don’t mess with Dallas… especially in their own house.” ??
Spurs player!!! What kind of half ass scamdicapper are you anyways?
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