Another excellent day yesterday with both bets hitting inside the first half. A couple for today to start, both of which are bets we've hit on already this season and for which the lines haven't been adjusted.
Hawks @ Bulls - Patrick Williams over 2.5 rebounds
Stumbled upon this one the other day and loaded up, and Williams did what he needed to do very quickly for a stress-free win. He ended up with 5 boards in that game in 29 minutes, getting extended time on the floor courtesy of the fact that he was playing very well at both ends. He won't get 29 minutes every night but even at the roughly 20 which he should average, this is a number he'll likely pass more often than not. He's averaged around 4 boards per game in mid-20s minutes throughout his career, so 2.5 as a line is at least a full rebound too low.
Suns @ Jazz - Kyle Filipowski over 5.5 rebounds
Another successful one from the other day, though not quite as easy a hit with Filipowski just sneaking over with 6 boards. That's not necessarily a bad thing though, because it means this line - which is too low - has not moved. Filipowski is 7-foot tall and as I mentioned the other day, averaged 6.1 boards in 21 minutes in his rookie season - and a lot more than that over the last few games of the year. Granted that was without Walker Kessler which makes a major difference, but even over the course of that rookie season in its entirety he averaged more than this number. This season, he looks likely to play at least 5 extra minutes per game, and as a second-year player will probably see a natural increase in numbers to go with that. Filipowski averaged close to 10 boards in around 29 minutes per game at college, so this line is simply not really reflective of his rebounding ability.
Good luck team.
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