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Do you see more value in pre game or in game NBA betting?

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Prospect
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Joined: Nov, 2012
Posts: 177
Posted: #1

I've had some good fortune lately with betting favourites to win who fall down by double digits come the late 2nd or 3rd quarter. In these cases a line that starts off at say Boston Celtics -600 at home. Drastically drops to +150 (roughly )when down 12 in the middle of the 3rd quarter.

 

   I almost feel like betting  a big favourite and laying chalk at $600 to win $100 is pointless, when you could just be patient and take the chance that they don't blow out the opponent and do fall down by double digits later on in the game.  

 

  While it's true the better team down double digits doesn't always come back to win it, for me it seems like this strategy to date has been more effective than betting a home dog at +150 prior to game time..

 

       I lean towards in play betting offering a substantially better chance to win money as opposed to wagering on pre game lines.

 

 

  What has been your experience with this?  And which side do you lean towards more?

 
Prospect
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Joined: Jul, 2012
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Posted: #2
I think there is always value in in-game betting. If someone caps a game at say Jazz +8, but the line is +3 at tip off, they may jump on it in-game if it gets to Jazz +8.

I also look for value in totals. Some teams may start hot, therefore in-game total is inflated. Same goes for the opposite.

My favorite is betting on a team down 10-15+ going into the 4th. Winning team is usually trying to make quality possessions and coast, like using entire shot clock and getting a good look. They only need to hit 35-40% form the field to win the game. The losing team is going to be pushing it to score.
 
Prospect
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Joined: Aug, 2013
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by IGotPaypas:

I think there is always value in in-game betting. If someone caps a game at say Jazz +8, but the line is +3 at tip off, they may jump on it in-game if it gets to Jazz +8.

I also look for value in totals. Some teams may start hot, therefore in-game total is inflated. Same goes for the opposite.

My favorite is betting on a team down 10-15+ going into the 4th. Winning team is usually trying to make quality possessions and coast, like using entire shot clock and getting a good look. They only need to hit 35-40% form the field to win the game. The losing team is going to be pushing it to score.

Same here. I mostly do my live betting at the end of the 3rd qtr. And like mentioned above, if a team goes up by double-digits, I look at the opening line and take the points, especially when the line was close at opening.

Good luck.
 
Prospect
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Joined: Mar, 2013
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Posted: #4
Don't ignore playing middles with live betting. NBA- Game of Runs.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by jebaum:

Don't ignore playing middles with live betting. NBA- Game of Runs.

       Agreed NBA is a game of runs.

   I'm new to some of this terminology though, could you please tell me what it means to "play midles" with live betting?

  I'd appreciate it a ton.

 Thanks for weighing in guys
 
Legend
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Posted: #6
the future of sports wagering is going to be INGAME LIVE betting options...anyone who is not taking advantage of these positive EV lines when the opportunity is there, is an old school gambler who will surely lose in the long run...it's like betting blind and hoping for the best...in game live wagering is where most professional bettors worldwide are making their daily living now.

FYI, I am just an avid amateur capper, but have been betting live for a very long time now, and I would NEVER wager on any event if its not being offered with live wagering options....if your book doesn't offer ingame wagering, get a new book! It's really that simple
Prove Me Wrong - Am Yisrael Chai
 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Apr, 2017
Posts: 188
Posted: #7
for example last night, I wanted to bet the st marys/gonzaga under....it opened at my book at un151.  The number moved to 149.5 by tip off.  I didn't make the bet because the total moved.  Anyways, i was following in-game total and at about 10 min left in the 1st half i placed my bet for the under at 168.5!  If i loved the 151 number then surely i should take this in game bet.   Well the bet hit and even the opening total hit...they were just scoring at a pace in the 1st half that wasn't going to last.
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