WS Gm 6 Pick and Why

Record stands at 5-1, the lone loss was taking the over when Yamamoto and Gausman faced each other 6 days ago.     Let's look at some numbers:

135  LAD   Yamamoto  -1

        TOR  Gausman    24   

LAD opened up as a 135 Fav currently around the same.  Ratings above are based on regular season data.   Yamamoto got the win and pitched 9 innings for a complete game for the second time in a row - stellar again.   Gausman took the loss after pitching 6.2 innings and gave up 3 runs .   Let's look at some angles on this game:

1.  Line opened at 135 for the away team - we have had this situation 4 times since 2009 in the playoffs when i started collecting data.   2 times the home team won outright , twice the away team won outright, however, they won on the run line only once while the home team covered the run line once.   

2.  What has changed between the last game and this game - the line is 135 not 140 - makes a difference based on how I handicap; after pitching 9 innings without 11 days rest and only getting 6 days - will Yamamoto be the same - not sure.   There's always little things you can look at - against Cincy - he hit a batter - the next time out - he lost against philly.   He hit a batter against Toronto last time out - does that mean they will lose tonite - I don't hang my hat on those things.    This is do or die for the Dodgers - as Toronto leads the series 3-2 - does that mean the dodgers have to win - I don't hang my hat on that stuff either for the most part.          

3. What I'm hangin my hat on are the ratings - with these ratings P1 and 24 and the line opening at 135 - the data I collect indicates - Take the home team - Toronto  to win outright tonite.     

My Plays:

1.  Toronto  +123    

2. small Parlay   Toronto +123 to under First 5 -121 - pays 2.72 to 1 

Good luck all.      

Correction not P1 rating but -1  

@TheBuddah

Let’s go Jays!!!

@LuckyGuy

 Back at ya bud

@FelixFermin21

 Thanks and back at ya bud 

GL  on your plays @TheBuddah 

Love your ratings and analysis , get it tonight bud 

@TheBuddah

 Nice writeup, logical analysis. 

GL ..

 Been with you throughout these post season games home boy. GL to us tonight. 

@Macwestie1

 Thanks Mac - back at ya 

@Digitalkarma

 thanks bud -back at ya 

@armyhog

you too bud 

@Kapthat

 thanks bud back at ya 

@Rolexsports

Appreciate it and back at ya

@KeyElement

 Key!!!!!    Long time no see - Hope all is well with you - thanks and back at ya  

@TheBuddah

 Bol tonight 

@vankiep_0007

 Back at ya bud