Looks high to me, he averages 8.3 at home, and 7.9 on the road.
He's gone over this number 9 times in 23 starts. He did have 13 Ks against this Twins lineup on June 29th, but the lineup is a lot different tonight vs then.
Any thoughts on this? Looking at hitting the Under -145
Dug a little deeper
Skubal has 6 games this year with 4 days rest, he's gone over 8.5, 3 of those 6 games. But he's had some of his best games on 4 days rest, with 11 Ks vs Bos, 13 Ks vs Cle and 13 Ks vs Minny.
He has 10 starts with 5 days rest, he's gone over 8.5 1 out of 10 times. That was a game vs the Brewers on April 14th.
**Bumping this thread from Aug. 14th which was an easy winner, Skubal finished with 3 Ks**
Why am I bumping this thread? Because he's on 5 days rest again tonight, rather than 4 days rest which Skubal usually pitches his best. This sets up a nice betting opportunity again on the Under 8.5 strikeouts, though at a heftier -145 juice. This still has value, if you look at Skubals stats on 5 days rest.
Skubal has gone over 8.5 Ks 1 out 11 times in 2025, when pitching on 5 days rest. He averages 6.4 strikeouts on 5 days rest. Well below 9.7 Ks which he averages on 4 days rest.
In 2024, Skubal went over 8.5 Ks, 2 out of 14 times on 5 days rest. That is a total of 3 overs in 25 appearances, on 5 days rest the past 2 years.
This bet is slightly worrisome, as the A's are a free-swinging team, and Skubal does own nice K numbers against guys like Langeliers (6 Ks in 9 at bats). But the A's still have a collective .304 average against Skubal, so I'm betting the A's can hit for contact tonight.
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