Games of the day 03-Jun-2012

Question

YTD posted on covers 6-5-1 (+1,86U)

Been traveling the last couple of weeks so have not posted much and only had time for a few plays. I was in Miami and saw two matches vs Giants and Nats.

Anyways, for today I have:

Orioles over Rays (+145)
There is excellent value in the O's today. They have broken their losing streak and I give them around 45% chance of winning today so there is 110% value in the current +145 line.

Marlins @ Phillies over 8,5 runs (+107)
Two good offenses against two mediocre pitchers should give at least 50% chance of 9 runs or more. Miami have been very hot lately and could likely cover 5-6 runs by themselves.

Reds over Astros (-1.0 handicap) (-113)
Arroyo has been flawless against Astros historically and with a slumping Astros up against a potent offense lead by Votto, I see a good chance of Reds winning by more than one. A 1-run victory to Reds returns the stake.

BOL to you all.

SirRagnar · Answer

YTD posted on covers 6-5-1 (+1,86U)

Been traveling the last couple of weeks so have not posted much and only had time for a few plays. I was in Miami and saw two matches vs Giants and Nats.

Anyways, for today I have:

Orioles over Rays (+145)
There is excellent value in the O's today. They have broken their losing streak and I give them around 45% chance of winning today so there is 110% value in the current +145 line.

Marlins @ Phillies over 8,5 runs (+107)
Two good offenses against two mediocre pitchers should give at least 50% chance of 9 runs or more. Miami have been very hot lately and could likely cover 5-6 runs by themselves.

Reds over Astros (-1.0 handicap) (-113)
Arroyo has been flawless against Astros historically and with a slumping Astros up against a potent offense lead by Votto, I see a good chance of Reds winning by more than one. A 1-run victory to Reds returns the stake.

BOL to you all.

SirRagnar · Answer

Adding Pirates over Brewers (-105)With Braun and Ramirez out of the lineup the odds have been dropping. Nevertheless, I still think there is value in the slight favorite line of -105. Brewers pitcher is inexperienced and had a good start. He will need to perform today if he wants the win, as it's not likely that the Brewers offense will be able to help him much without Braun and Ramirez. He might be coming down to earth after his fine debut performance and be beaten up by the Pirates - as beaten up as one can be by the Pirates.Small win for the Pirates is my estimate which I give 55% chance.

Dr_Boilermaker · Answer

Matt Moore continues to be heavily valued.  You think the O's shell him today?

SirRagnar · Answer

I think he is over valued today, but I don't think he is going to be shelled. Rays are rightly the favorite today, but I think there is enough of a chance for O's to get a fair share of runs off of him to win the match, hence I give them 45% chance of winning.Moore is 0-4 with a 5.40 ERA in five starts, which is not impressive, but Arrieta is 0-4 with an 8.00 ERA in five starts - even worse.So it's going to be the battle of the poor performing pitchers. I'm betting the value here, which I think is clear on the O's after they broke their losing streak of 6 losses yesterday and are playing to defend the 1st place they claimed after yesterdays win.

Games of the day 03-Jun-2012

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