Final season numbers and thoughts

Final numbers were decent with a lot of ups and downs:

2025    761-692     +3603

2024   1132-1033   +5471

2023    959-928   +2587

2022    704-603   +8264

I think this was a very nice season with a lot of interesting things throughout.  I like that for some teams it has come down to the last day of the season.

Some of these observations(complaints?) are the same as I have posted at the end of the last two previous seasons, is I will not rehash them in complete detail.  I will simply emphasize that I mostly feel the same way I have after all of the rules changes and analytics changes. 

https://www.covers.com/forum/mlb-betting/final-season-numbers-and-thoughts-103879526

https://www.covers.com/forum/mlb-betting/end-of-regular-season-thoughts-103769489

There are many things I like about baseball.  The traditions, the numbers involved with players and teams, strategy and nuance, and suspense (a team is never really out of it until the last out is made).

Like they say, “You don’t watch baseball. You experience it—like a long summer day.”

But there are still a very few things that I do not like as a fan and as someone that wagers on it.

I still do not like the phantom runner rule in extra innings.  I understand why they started it.

You are getting 15-20% more scoring in extra inning games now, and they are about 10-15 minutes shorter.

The strategy has strayed away from the normal strategy.

Now the advantage has swung wildly:

Visitors are 477-465 in extra innings since the ghost runner rule started.

Prior to that (2017-2019), home teams had an advantage: home extra-inning wins were 312-294 in that span.

All in all, the evidence suggests that the ghost runner rule has hurt the home team’s traditional extra-innings advantage (i.e., their likelihood of winning in extras) and has provided a slight benefit to visiting teams. The shift isn’t dramatic, but it is statistically noticeable.

Though fan interest is up slightly since the start of this rule, there is really no solid evidence it is because of the rule, or if so, how much is because of it directly.

I understand and like analytics overall.  But I do not like some of the effects I see as negative.

I always contend that they are much more useful in MLB because of the longer season, more games , and more situations for them to average out in your favor.  Whereas, in the NFL, with a shorter season, it can be very disadvantageous.  For example, the analytics may tell you to go for it on 4th and 2 on the opponent's 35-yard line.  But you will only have a handful of those chances in the season.  So, a team that is not very good will automatically not make these 4th down conversions that often.  This can cause them to lose a game, lock in a losing season, and get coaches fired when they do not work out.

In MLB the opportunities are vastly more available.  Because now strategies that are seen as more efficient, reduce variability, and maximize expected positive results, but to a large degree with the result of less excitement for the fan.

There are more strikeouts and homers but fewer balls in play and stolen bases.

So, some of the excitement is lost because there is less action in between the ‘bigger’ moments.

There is also a sense that the managers are no longer managing by ‘gut’ or ‘instinct’ but by the GM and stat-guru’s situational spreadsheets.

It has become much more than ‘playing the odds’ in situations but being totally reliant on numbers that may very well work better for one team and its players but not another team and its players. It has become a catchall type of action for all teams now in given situations.

Now they are all yanking their pitchers too often.  They do not want any pitcher to see the lineup for the third time.

They have the pitchers that are not learning to pitch but throw as hard as possible. Pitchers are not allowed to pitch out of trouble enough. This has caused many more pitchers in the bullpen to be used and has increased the injuries in the pitching staffs.  There is no solid evidence that the starting pitchers, who have multiple days off between starts, have reduced injuries because of their reduction in innings.

They do not even let a pitcher go for a no-hitter now, or a complete game, or a 1- or 2-hitter game.

The hitters are all trying to hit for velocity and launch angles now instead of concentrating on moving runners around.

I understand banning the shift.  I do not really agree with it.  I prefer they teach batters to hit away from it.

I get the pitch clock but do not really agree with it either.  But I concede that it has reduced the time of games.  I just do not like the idea of a clock in a non-clock sport.

Then the time of the games is increased by changing pitchers far more often.

Eventually, if you continue to change pitchers, you will find one that is not on his game or one that the opponent can hit.

Far too often a pitcher will be relieved after allowing a hit, and the next guy will walk one or give up a hit right away, followed by a 2- or 3-run homer.

If a middle-relief pitcher has just completed a solid 1-2-3 inning, he's often replaced the next inning, and the guy is not keyed up and promptly gets into trouble.

From a wagering perspective, this has presented some complications and changes.  But these changes have their own unique challenges.

As I often point out, you want to bet into +EV situations whenever possible while avoiding -EV situations.

If you are someone that likes starting pitching value, you have to really consider playing the 1st 5 innings, instead of the whole game, because you are much more likely to have the starting pitcher the whole time that way.

But what happens if your starting pitcher gets tagged early for a homer? Can you rely on his offense to overcome that in 5 innings, or do you need the whole game for the team to overcome the early deficit, even though your strong pitcher will not be in the last part of the game? Do you rely on a bullpen that is not as good as the starting pitcher you wanted to wager on?

The same thing goes for totals.What if you see value in the under with a pitcher, and he gives up a couple of runs early? Now if his team also scores, it is likely to go over in the first 5 innings.  But if you had the full game, it might settle down and play as you expected the rest of the way and stay under the total for the game, even though you had to rely on the bullpen.

The same thing goes for wagering on an under that is a close game.  Just by definition they are likely to be a tight game that might go to extra innings.  Now you certainly have a greater chance of losing because of the phantom rule.

The people that bet overs might think of times where this has helped them.  But it can easily be argued that if they needed extra innings to go over, they had made a -EV wager.

You should never have to rely on OT or extra innings to bail you out.  It is nice if it happens.  But you should assess your initial wager based on the end of regulation or 9 innings.

Then the same thing applies if you take a side that you view as +EV.  If you take the home team and they slip up early and you wagered on the 1st 5 innings are you giving up the value of a better team over a full 9 innings?

Then if it is a close game and goes to extra innings, you now lose the built-in advantage you have if you took the home team and are actually now at a disadvantage.

With all of that being said, I think this should be a wide-open and exciting playoff season!

Great summary  and great season   

 Thank you Raiders for posting all season and for this wrap up. You are awesome and wish u continued success!!! 

refreshing to see tracking  .. MORE refreshing to see profit 4 yrs in row  ... hope i remember if around next yr 

Impressive baseball betting entire season is an incredible grind and requires a ton of work. Great job 

Best of luck this post season