Baltimore has over their last 4 consecutively-played road games won 3 SU and lost 1 by 1 run.
This season the O's have recorded 21 instances of playing 5 consecutive road games. On 20 of those 21 occasions they've lost at least 1 of the 5 games played by a 3+ run margin (a 95.2% occurrence rate). Only once in one of these 21 blocks of 5 road games have they not recorded such a result: between June 3-7 they won 4 and lost 1 by 1 run, beating Seattle 3 times and then splitting 2 games with the A's. The O's sweeping of the M's came at a time when the latter was going through a 3-11 SU slump where all 3 of their wins were by a mere 1 run (one needing extra innings). Catching an out-of-form opponent at the right time is what has made for their only instance this season of averting a 3+ run loss over any given stretch of 5 road games (it also marks their only road sweep of a team w/an overall winning record).
What this stat speaks to is the fact that no matter how often the O's string together 2-3 good road performances, the 10+ games below .500 on-the-road version of themselves never goes long without making an appearance.
Boston's last 5 instances of losing a home game by a 3+ run margin and then playing the same opponent again has seen them go 5-0 SU, winning by 1, 2, 14, 2 & 2 run margins while averaging 7.0 runs for and 2.8 runs against. Whether they have the pitcher today to keep the O's near that defensive average is one thing, but their offense is in a bounce-back spot right at the same time the O's pitching has season long consistently proved to be statistically vulnerable to being taken apart.
BOS TT o4.5 for me.
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