Week 9 Lines Discussion

We crushed week 8 going 5-2 on spreads and went 2-2 on ml dogs hitting +400 w LOU and +225 w ASU. 

Not many good matchups this week, but there are a few opportunities I've identified. Maybe together we will find some more. 

Ole Miss +4.5 - Miss on their second straight road game here, but its not a ton of travel to Georgia and now to Oklahoma. Oklahoma won a sleeper at SC where they didnt actually have to do much, and Ole Miss was in an exciting back and forth battle. I just think Miss comes in here hungrier and I think this is 2 too many points. Will play an alt line when available too. 

RICE +10.5 and ml +325 - Who is Uconn to be laying 10.5 on the road? They just went to BC and won comfortably but that isnt very impressive. This is their second straight road game and first time leaving the northeast. Theyve traveled to Delaware, Buffalo, and Boston. Now they go all the way to Houston vs a team that can run the ball and coming off a nasty blow out loss. 

ISU -2.5 - Good spot for Iowa State who comes off a bye after losing back to back road games at Cincy and Colorado. BYU sandwiched here between their Holy War win and bye week followed by a big matchup at Texas Tech.

WSU -1.5 - Washington State has quietly been playing some quality football the past 3 weeks. Since giving up 59 two weeks in a row to UNT and then Washington, they beat a decent Colorado State team 20-3 on the road, took Ole Miss down to the wire on the road, and just took Virginia down the wire on the road. Now they get to come home and have a great chance to notch a win and get to .500 on the season. Toledo is coming off an easy win vs Kent and has lost all 3 of their road games this year and the farthest they've traveled is Kentucky or Western Mich, not sure which is further, but its not very far. 

MSST +7.5 and ml +225 - Too many points. Based on the performance of each team I was expecting a 3.5 here. Is it 7.5 bc Texas has a #22 next to their name and people like to say hook em? This Bulldog team is scrappy and coming off a tough close loss at the swamp. They get to come home now and bang away on those obnoxious cow bells for 60 mins. How is Arch going to perform with that going off in his face? Texas just isnt that good. They fell at the swamp in a tough environment and I think they fall again here. 

Others that caught my eye, but I just dont know yet;

CSU +6.5 - Seems like too many points for Wyoming to be laying here

WAKE +3.5 - SMU coming in on 2nd straight road, both to east coast game, Wake off bye. Early kick here too. 

UNC +9.5 - Gio Lopez came back for his first game and they lost an ugly but close game at CAL. Now coming home w a chance to play upset vs a Virginia team that is 6-1 but plays much better as a dog. They snuck by FSU and LOU in upset fashion, then barely snuck by WSU as a 17.5 pt favorite. Does their fortune fade here? Of these 3 this one is standing out to me the most

Like the csu angle… border war… new coach angle.. Wyoming doesn’t score a lot… pick em type game…  speaking of ole miss… I had plus 7 Saturday… man if Kiffen isn’t a roller coaster…. It’s good to have connections 

BAMA -13.5 @ SC: Cocks are in shambles. They can't score and Beamer is doubling down behind Shula. There is no way SC stays in this game. Injuries on OL. Sacks galore. It's only a matter of time before their defense quits trying. IMO, this one will get ugly although Deboer probably won't run it up. (But Kiffin will the following week.)

Just gave me my parlay and teaser for the week  Rice Mississippi state and North Carolina 

Was waiting for this number move. As I said, Virginia much better as a dog, now laying pts on the road in conference. Belichick can make this game ugly and we have Lopez at QB now in 2nd game back playing at home instead of all the way out in California where they actually did cover. 

UNC +10.5 and ml +300

good luck not sure it will happen but uva will try to do on unc home field what they did to them last year, it’s the perfect timing for it. Only thing that rarely happens when they lay at unc but perfect timing they are ranked and unc is down moreso than usual

Update:

We are off the Washington State game, cancel that, no play. 

Great job Buddy. 
once again we mostly agree…let’s hope it works out the way it should 

@JJWoods

Sounds good brother, lets mash the books

You could be right about this one. I was on Tennessee at Alabama and luckily I was able to buy out of it early on. I just dont have a high degree of confidence in this and I have an aversion to laying points on the road

Update:

I'm off of the Miss State pick now, cancel that. 

@Yanasaur

 A lot of distractions with Ole Miss right now with the Lane Kiffin to Florida speculation. Nebraska is in the same boat, and we saw what happened to them last week.

And I'm not sure why you got off Missy St. Texas hasn't been home for the whole month. Four straight on the road is brutal. I think the Bulldogs are a live dog here. BOL on your plays! 

Im glad you said something I was typing distracted and I actually meant to say I was off Ole Miss. Miss State is still a play. Thank you! 

Correction:

We are off OLE MISS. MISS STATE is still a play. Typo earlier too many Miss going on in my head

Added:

HOU +8.5 and ml +260

MEM ml +170

UT shows this week 

What makes you say that? 

Another game has caught my eye, interested to hear thoughts on:

MINN +9.5 - Just seems like a lot of points in an ugly grinding Iowa game. Their offense is better, but we are talking about winning by double digits with a total at 39.5. This game could easily be 20-13 or some goofy 19-15 ugly game

Virginia and North Carolina have gone 5-5 against each other the past 10 years, and I believe the dog has also won 50% of the time during this period. North Carolina at home getting 10 1/2 is a great option in my opinion. 

Bama is in a terrible spot after playing so many tough games. S. Carolina played them tough last year. Bama beats top 10 teams but struggles with teams that are not ranked. Wouldn't be surprised if Bama is down at the half.

The entire country is on Iowa State. 

Good luck this weekend and thanks for posting! 

LSU season is on the Line Saturday Night in Death Valley! LSU will Rise Up

@River_fish

 Yea line dropping in Bama game says you may be right. What I worry about is SCs offensive inconsistencies. Theyve played some decent defense though. I was on them last week vs OU and was disappointed. If they can keep Bamas offense in check and keep this game in the 20s they have a chance. 

I would lean LSU as well. Not enough confidence for a play for me but I would like to see LSU win. Good luck 

Ole Miss +4.5 seems to be a trap. This line opened at 3.5 and climbed up to 6.0 to other books. I can see OSU winning this by 10.

Another option for the Bama game is the OVER. I hate betting on my team (in case of the deceased double loss). I think DeBoer will remind them of last year. While he may not intend to run it up, the running game needs to get right. I can see a couple of backups breaking off big runs, and with the OL issues at SC, I can see another defensive score and a couple of turnovers. 

That said, I'll probably still be on Bama as a side too. I am a degenerate Homer and think we can cover in what looked like a much tougher game when schedule came out.

Good luck all

I agree, I got off that game. I accidentally posted first that I was off Miss St, but I meant Ole Miss. I actually added more to Miss St, but Ole Miss is no longer a play, luckily I was able to cash out and lose nothing when it came back to 4.5