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Week 8 Thoughts....

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Posted: #1
Insert cliche statement about winning money from your book here. 

Spots worked out well last week. Hit a few ML pups that were around 2:1 and really just enjoyed Saturday. 

With most of you, not readers of this thread, I guess, losing your butt last week, let me tell you why I won.....(like you really want to read, how pompous is this going to come off?):

I dont care about teams. Not a single iota. 

I wont root for a team this week, or next. You wont find me rooting for anyone. I rarely even watch a game I bet, let alone sit there and treat every play like its the end-all-be-all. I watch the games that will be good, getting the Big 10 on the East Coast on ESPN, thats basically nothing. If I luck out to see a game I have money on, good for me, but its something I hate. 

I dont believe what my eyes see. Just because you saw Aaron Rodgers complete 85% of his passes doesnt mean it will happen next week - hold on....there's gotta be a better example.

I hold no preconceived notions about what the score of a game will be. I dont say that Team A is going to win 31-7 or 41-14. I dont care. 

I am completely comfortable knowing that I have no idea how a game is going to play out. I dont care. If I do a write-up, akin to say Baylor/Illy bowl last year, and it nails, its because thats how I thought it was going to happen. But does it often happen that way? No. These games are bat-shit and crazy stuff happens. I am perfectly OK knowing that something nuts is going to happen during the course of a game to be a pivotal turning point. 

I might be brash, but I am not young enough to think I know everything. I learn something every day, something with every loss. 

I truly think that spots and situations are the most important thing in capping. There are #s out there for everything. The line is set, the injuries are known. Lets talk about something that the entire free world isnt given in typeface. 

I always try to stay ahead of the curve and not behind it. I dont try to be sharp. I dont try to avoid being square. I do me. I dont let the public or the percentages or Covers flavor of the month influence me. There is no use playing the team that just won big last week. How are you going to try to sail when the boat is off the dock and there are already people throwing money around?

Now, I will stop with being a jagaloon and post my thoughts....



 
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Posted: #2
Well said 

GL this week bro. 
 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by RJSizzle:



I truly think that spots and situations are the most important thing in capping. There are #s out there for everything. The line is set, the injuries are known. Lets talk about something that the entire free world isnt given in typeface. 



exactly the way i have learned to cap...maybe that's why we both won this week and almost always have the same plays.
 
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Posted: #4
Other than Troy winning SU over FIU, no interest in the weeknight slate at all. 

UAB with a lot of confidence after last week, getting some key guys back. I think they beat a Marshall team that just shouldnt be laying anything over 3. 

Bet on Wake Forest at your own risk. Not only does the line say blowout, but how is Wake going to score here? I dont see them doing much offensively, take away Givens and its a wrap. UNC should mash the ball down the Wake D Line all day, undersized and with no depth, this game isnt going to be pretty. 

As I am now sitting at .500 on the year on Clemson games, I think to myself, man, I had this team pegged early on, but are they better than I think? Then the line opens and it has sucker written all over it. I thought Clemson was on the map going into last week and they put up 59 and its hello #4. All of you that were hosing GT down to me the past 3 weeks, all of which you did not cover, are going to be in here telling me how GT is terrible. They lost all the games they played to good schools etc. I get it. But this is a bad time to jump off the GT wagon. Clemson wont be able to stop the run. Shit, teams dont run on them and they are still one of the worst in a BCS conference. Not good against a triple option attack. Clemson is off a brutal stretch of games and GT should be ready, this is a huge game for GT, this is their season. Talk about motivation. Undefeated Clemson coming into your house? Week 8? This is what football is about. I am on GT @4. 

Hammertime on Nebraska as well @4. MSU just won a huge game. Kids are on cloud nine. ESPN, primetime, hail mary - yikes! I dont see how they come back with the same emotion after two rivalry games. This is a spot of the century here. 

It doesnt matter if you threw up on the points in Happy Valley, leave them there. You dont need them. Illy is going to win this game. The dreaded 5.5 line, did any of those favorites win last week? No? Oh, OK. Did they all lose outright? Yea? Oh, OK. Havent lost an Illy game while Obama has been in office and it aint changing now. 

Its the bets that even I have a hard time placing that cash the easiest usually. Let me introduce you to my friend Rutgers. Ugh. Talk about an ugly bet, but this team is in a great spot. I dont see how WVA rebounds from having their season f-ed. 

Louisville should take advantage of a good schedule and Syracuse letting down like no other.....they always dangle 3.5 on the dog when they think it will entice a few schmucks

Love Vandy at that #. 

Bowling Green should not be laying damn near a TD. Thats ludicrous. Take that on value alone. -3 at best. 

SMU should open up the playbook on Tulsa. Like them to beat up a dwindling Tulsa team. 

I stayed away from Mizzou last week, but man, what a disappointment. That should mean its a great time to bet on them this week. 

I have already hit Iowa State @15.5. Tech is not that good. Its laughable. That kool-aid probably tastes great, though. 

Like Buffalo to get a road win. 

I hit SJSU and feel like a sucker for it. 

UNLV wins that game. ML for me. 

After a terrible showing on national TV UCLA should win at home. 

Arizona is on a roll. No way they should be getting anything more than 4.5. 

I know K State is for real, but OU is better everywhere. I like the K State corners, but not many at KST would start at OU. Even action on this game is a line around 9.5 - they open 14. 

I hit Baylor. Okie State now begins its quest to be overvalued. 

I hear the same arguments about Stanford/USC as I did last year. USC cashed one of the easier tickets all year for me. With Stanford's profile elevated even more, this is a great spot. Its just that with USC beating the Irish, this doesnt set up as well. We lose about 2 points on the line. Not sure if its a play, but USC is a lean. 


Thoughts? Drop em. 










 
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Posted: #5
how is Rutgers in a better spot than WV.  WV is going to unleash wrath on them after being embarrassed on national tv.  Rutgers season was basically ruined too.  i think WV is in a much better spot here.
 
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Posted: #6

What week is it anyway?  8 or 9...

 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by PlacinUnits:


What week is it anyway?  8 or 9...


9...RJ is off.
 
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Posted: #8
 Arizona won their 1st game in 6 weeks & their 1st in a year vs a D-I team. Not sure if that qualifies as being "on a roll".......I guess it would for them. Anyhow, it doesn't matter who is favored. This will be a shootout...........I like the over.

 USC was an easy cash last week. This week they will get crushed. Stanford is a machine with no emotions.

 GL this week........I like your thoughts/plays.
 
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Posted: #9
I was wondering if you would be on Iowa State. You think we get a few more points on the Cyclones or TT is simply in let down mode or both?
 
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Posted: #10
Last week, I was against you all over the place, and I got my ass handed to me. This week, I'm with you all over the place. Hoping it means we'll both have a week like you just did, not like I just did. 

Heavily with you on Iowa State, UNLV, and Louisville. 

Lean with you on Nebraska, Illy, Kent St, and Rutgers. Tend to mirror your thoughts on Wake as well. 

Only place where I'm leaning against you is UAB. I thought this would be a terrible spot for them coming off a big home weeknight win, but I also didn't expect to see the line open so high. So I'm not sure what to think. I haven't had a lot of success with public dogs though, and they certainly are that. Marshall has been pretty steady on D for most of the season, but they don't exactly have large margins of victory. 
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by sims_key:

how is Rutgers in a better spot than WV.  WV is going to unleash wrath on them after being embarrassed on national tv.  Rutgers season was basically ruined too.  i think WV is in a much better spot here.

Rutgers has nothing to lose. They are supposed to lose this game. They arent expected to win. With those expectations that are belied upon WVA I feel like its a bad spot. To put a team that just lost in the fashion like they did in another road environment the following week isnt very kind. Couple that with it being a conference game and I love Rutgers here. Most people seem to think that teams rebound from losses like that, but they usuallly do not. Why is WVA that much better than their last game? Was that a rude awakening to WVA or to WVA bettors? It was their first true road test and they ate it. I dont see how these young kids rebound. 
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by sims_key:


9...RJ is off.

Man....with the fucking people here, I am surprised this is coming up now. I just realized I have been off for 3 weeks straight. What an idiot. 

 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by RJSizzle:

Other than Troy winning SU over FIU, no interest in the weeknight slate at all. 

UAB with a lot of confidence after last week, getting some key guys back. I think they beat a Marshall team that just shouldnt be laying anything over 3. 

Bet on Wake Forest at your own risk. Not only does the line say blowout, but how is Wake going to score here? I dont see them doing much offensively, take away Givens and its a wrap. UNC should mash the ball down the Wake D Line all day, undersized and with no depth, this game isnt going to be pretty. 

As I am now sitting at .500 on the year on Clemson games, I think to myself, man, I had this team pegged early on, but are they better than I think? Then the line opens and it has sucker written all over it. I thought Clemson was on the map going into last week and they put up 59 and its hello #4. All of you that were hosing GT down to me the past 3 weeks, all of which you did not cover, are going to be in here telling me how GT is terrible. They lost all the games they played to good schools etc. I get it. But this is a bad time to jump off the GT wagon. Clemson wont be able to stop the run. Shit, teams dont run on them and they are still one of the worst in a BCS conference. Not good against a triple option attack. Clemson is off a brutal stretch of games and GT should be ready, this is a huge game for GT, this is their season. Talk about motivation. Undefeated Clemson coming into your house? Week 8? This is what football is about. I am on GT @4. 

Hammertime on Nebraska as well @4. MSU just won a huge game. Kids are on cloud nine. ESPN, primetime, hail mary - yikes! I dont see how they come back with the same emotion after two rivalry games. This is a spot of the century here. 

It doesnt matter if you threw up on the points in Happy Valley, leave them there. You dont need them. Illy is going to win this game. The dreaded 5.5 line, did any of those favorites win last week? No? Oh, OK. Did they all lose outright? Yea? Oh, OK. Havent lost an Illy game while Obama has been in office and it aint changing now. 

Its the bets that even I have a hard time placing that cash the easiest usually. Let me introduce you to my friend Rutgers. Ugh. Talk about an ugly bet, but this team is in a great spot. I dont see how WVA rebounds from having their season f-ed. 

Louisville should take advantage of a good schedule and Syracuse letting down like no other.....they always dangle 3.5 on the dog when they think it will entice a few schmucks

Love Vandy at that #. 

Bowling Green should not be laying damn near a TD. Thats ludicrous. Take that on value alone. -3 at best. 

SMU should open up the playbook on Tulsa. Like them to beat up a dwindling Tulsa team. 

I stayed away from Mizzou last week, but man, what a disappointment. That should mean its a great time to bet on them this week. 

I have already hit Iowa State @15.5. Tech is not that good. Its laughable. That kool-aid probably tastes great, though. 

Like Buffalo to get a road win. 

I hit SJSU and feel like a sucker for it. 

UNLV wins that game. ML for me. 

After a terrible showing on national TV UCLA should win at home. 

Arizona is on a roll. No way they should be getting anything more than 4.5. 

I know K State is for real, but OU is better everywhere. I like the K State corners, but not many at KST would start at OU. Even action on this game is a line around 9.5 - they open 14. 

I hit Baylor. Okie State now begins its quest to be overvalued. 

I hear the same arguments about Stanford/USC as I did last year. USC cashed one of the easier tickets all year for me. With Stanford's profile elevated even more, this is a great spot. Its just that with USC beating the Irish, this doesnt set up as well. We lose about 2 points on the line. Not sure if its a play, but USC is a lean. 


Thoughts? Drop em. 










I don't care about the situation betting Nebraska here is not really a sound bet in my opinion.  My numbers have Michigan St roughly 8 points better than Nebraska this year and as much as you think it might be a letdown spot, they won't overlook nebraska as an underdog and still have a lot to play for.  I'd be alot more worried if they were playing a bad team this week.

 

 

 
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Posted: #14
I dont play every letdown spot, its just this is a spot that qualifies for me. Wouldnt trust Cousins in that environment. 

You are a #s guy, I couldnt be further from. 

 
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Posted: #15

lucky you missed that ND game .... fockers let us down I didnt see that beat down coming ...

 
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Posted: #16
LOL....I hit ND at the half for -11 units. 

 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by RJSizzle:

LOL....I hit ND at the half for -11 units. 

I didnt get that lucky .. I was a  Halloween party .. so wasnt even watching the game ... just saw the final score ....lol

 
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Posted: #18
RJ, 

With you on G. Tech, Nebraska.  I am not heavily leaning towards UNLV given that you and a few other cappers I respect are on them. 

ASU/Colorado:  The Sun Devils are just so undisciplined and I don`t expect them to be mentally in this game.  Thoughts?

UCLA:  I had a feeling you would be on them for the reason you gave.  I am not sure I like that play though.  I am thinking the Bruins will quit on Neuheisel, much like Zona did with Stoops. 

Like Zona.  Not so much because they are `on a roll`, but because it is a sandwich spot.  The Ducks are on tap, and the Ducks are their biggest rival, not WSU. 

USC is clearly the play here, but I may not be able to pull the trigger.  A loss in S.Bend and I would have been all over them. 
The Cardianl are @ OSU next week.  Coming off the SC game and with the biggest game in the Pac-12 vsOregon the following week, coupled with the fact that Riley`s teams improve as the season progresses and are always a threat to take down the big boys in Corvallis, I see tremendous value on the Beavers and that is the best time to fade Stanford.  

BOL this week.  I always enjoy reading your thread.  
 
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Posted: #19
I think the change of scenery at HC for Zona was what they needed, a shot of energy into the program. They didnt miss a thing last week. They rolled for 60. Very impressive game from them. I see the new coach staying in their faces, not letting them letdown. He has something to prove, its his team now. They are 1-0. Washington, as you pointed out, not in the best spot. They really thought they had a chance last weekend. 

I might not fade Stanford just yet.....noted about OSU. 

Think Colorado is the only play you can make there. ASU is a mess. They need to take martial arts or something. 

You need to hit UNLV soon. That line wont be 3 for long. 

 
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Posted: #20
Gonna go ahead and second RL on both UCLA and Arizona. 

RJ, you usually have a good feel on shitty small conference games. What are your thoughts on North Texas and WKU. I'm thinking it's time to hop off both. ULM is better than they showed last week, and WKU isn't as good. UNT is one of those "bet at home, fade away" teams, and last week set them up pretty nicely, but it is a lot of chalk. 
 
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Posted: #21
Also, that UNLV line hasn't been 3 since 9 PM last night. I was pissed that I missed it then. 
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by RJSizzle:


Man....with the fucking people here, I am surprised this is coming up now. I just realized I have been off for 3 weeks straight. What an idiot. 



what's funny is, after i saw it again this week...i started to think that maybe it was me who was off.  you have posted incorrect weeks so confidently the last three weeks i thought i was losing my mind.


 
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Posted: #23
nice week in the challenge last week.

 I think UNC lays it hard on Wake too..

BOL this week
 
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Posted: #24
Anyone else see value on Minnesota getting +16 vs Iowa who plays a diffferent game on the road?  I like it.
 
 
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Posted: #25
A lot of the same leans RJ.  I hope that is good for me, and not bad for you.  Keep up the good work.

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