Week 8 Lines Discussion

This week is going to be light. Have now had 3 solid weeks in a row hitting some juicy dogs and not too much is standing out to me. The bold and underlined MSST and TEN are all I've played so far. 

LOU +13.5 - Both teams off a bye. Miami off a decently close game at FSU. Louisville off a tough home loss against Virgina. I think Louisville gets up for max effort in this game and keeps it close and maybe challenges the moneyline. Im going to wait and see if we can get 14 before betting it, but even if not I'll be on the spread and moneyline. 

TULSA +16.5 - ECU is a good team, but they are off a tough road loss at Tulane and Tulsa coming off extended rest after getting boatraced at Memphis. This is just a lot of points.

UCF -7.5 - UCF is playing some decent defense holding 2 good Kansas and Cincinnati offenses relatively in check. Both close games they lost. Now they come home to face a not very good WV team who is coming off a bye, but I just dont see them scoring much. I will wait on this one and see if we can get a flat 7 or maybe get lucky on a move to 6.5. 

MSST +10.5 and ml +300 - Theyve played well and coming off bye going to the swamp, should be motivated and rested. Gators have played well also facing an absolutely brutal schedule. Napier is a horrible coach. After this last loss at TAMU it could be hard for this team to be motivated knowing their season is effectively over and you can always count on Napier making big mistakes. 

TEN +8.5 and ml +250 - Tennessee coming off bye. Bama coming off a tough hard fought win at Missouri and they are vulnerable. This is just too many points and I believe it will come down under a TD

Not strong favorites = UCF

Why their last 3 games all dogs, this week a favorite and next week @ Baylor, should be a dog again.  What that says to me is this is confirmed a dog team and last week 1 cover was minimal. Before that , 2 dog failures.  WV is an ugly team that this is an opportunity to cover.  The dangerous part of WV is BYU dominated them last game,  The way BYU plays the dont blow out teams in the second half the suffocate teams just to get the W and move on. 

This game speaks to me as being very tight and maybe WV at some point has the lead.  WV was +20 @ BYU. CFL is not BYU.   

Intangible, good or bad?  Good: WV won the turnover battle last week 3-1.  If they can create the same that/s an opportunity.  The bad: UCF is aware of the turnover and 2 BYU lost fumbles.  Multiple fumble games are rare.  

I like betting against favorites that are dog teams and this favorite isn't getting enough points to cover the dog spreads.  This dog won't be on the top of my list but it qualifies.

TULSA +16.5

last game Tulsa was @ red hot Memphis line was +20.  ECU is not red hot but they play well.  I dont like this game because Tulsa last week did not come close to the +20 spread so this line should be +20 or more for an overlay line.  Tulsa has bee favored 2 times to ACU and NMST.  Thats not very good credibility.  Their dog win was +10 @ OK St.  This line is +16.5  ECU can play Ok St can not.

pass for me.

instead of adding more info and my take.   I will add more comments in my thread.  I feel like im stepping on your toes .

Nice to see your early active thoughts. Ive been watching your success.  

Best Wishes 

I appreciate the feedback here in this thread, thats what I post it for. Before I bet ones I'm not really confident in I'd like to see if I'm off base. I always hope to generate some discussion on these

Previous lines and past scores and data from past games are important to me. The books adjust spreads of course so the ladder success on teams that have been respectable favorites in the past and failed upon those games I opportunities.  Volatile teams  like Louisville fit what I do nicely.  Unless there is a coaching change and dysfunction like a Penn St.  That’s not the case because Louisville is still getting W’s. 

Look ahead games and future line evaluations are also important to me.  A dog team that has power is shown in future games that they will be favorites.  

Speaking of volatility, these ACC games definitely provide it. Ive been doing very well on them. The dog seems to perform in every single matchup w these ACC teams. Thats interesting, I never look into future games. I just compare the spreads I make with the books spreads and consider situational angles and how the majority is seeing a game. I dont always bet a game just because I have different numbers though. I have to decide if its because im wrong or the book is wrong and sometimes I just have no clue. Sometimes i have the same number or very close but the situational angles or perception are strong enough to make a play anyway

@Yanasaur

 That’s because where is the strong favorite in this conference. This season in the ACC, there isn’t a dominate favorite team(except of course Miami)   Volatility is key so when a team meanders thru a season as a favorite and a dog like a Virginia against weaker favorite opponents like FSU and Clemson there becomes opportunities. 

Soon as a team drops out of the top 10 they become susceptible to favorite spreads.  Something I’m curious about this week is Virginia and how they handle being 2 TD favorites.  I know it’s Carolina but we will see. 

Louisville lost to Virginia last game.  That creates the volatility situations that I like. 

Massey ratings site is adequate.  I have my targeted games and use it to confirm or eliminate some games.  I have my ideas though heading into Sunday and Monday.  Some games it takes some stewing about.  

If a teams future games are going to be fog games that’s a sign of weakness. If these teams are dogs I’ll avoid them most often and if they are favorites with dog games ahead that’s a fade-able favorite with big games ahead.  

Dog teams that are favorites at least one game in the near future confirms the team is valuable.  A team that is consistently a dog is trash in a lot of cases.  

Cal-11'

Purdue +3'

 Iowa-2'

USC +8'

Nevada +10

These all caught my eye initially

From the first glance at the lines, I noticed Texas st is a 3 pt fav at Marshall. 

Red light is flashing...

save your money on Iowa.  To me it’s obvious the team wanted The coach out.  The loss to Northwestern was indicative of that.  Now that he is out do they rally ? The back up QB isn’t that big of an issue either.  The starter wasn’t impressing me.  I won’t back Penn State but I’m not jumping up to get against them. I’m thinking pass. 

Cal-11 too much. They lost and didn’t score again SD St.  they were dogs to BC (looking back that line was amazing) and home dogs to Duke. -11 here is a pass or actually I like N.Carolina's line, but not at the top of my list either. 

This game is off my radar.  You like Texas St? 

Best of luck…in my opinion fade the numerous over active members of the forums….and stick to your own Due Dilligence as many get distracted letting opinions cloud your hard work  GL buddy, good man. 

Some people just love to hear themselves talk…. Sign of a fool, who doesn’t listen only speaks.

lets win brotha 

When going through all the lines USC and Purdue caught my eye a little. I do like Purdue, I've been on them 2 weeks in a row, but what I dont like is it is their 2nd straight road game and NW seems to be playing decently and is always tough at home, though they are normally in a dog role. Im not sure they can perform as a favorite and Purdue has been playing decently though it hasnt translated to wins against better competition. 

Agree with you completely on Iowa and CAL. No way am I laying 11 w them. At a quick glance you'd think Iowa sounds good, but why is the line only 2.5 if PSU is a dead team? QB doesnt really matter, and we often see teams bounce back after hated coach is fired. What would this game have been 3 weeks ago? PSU -14.5 maybe? 

@JJWoods

 Yes the overconfident blowhards can give you a good sense of where your plays stand. I'm all about discussion of these games and finding an edge and bouncing ideas to make sure we arent missing anything important

What are you thinking? This game wasnt on my radar. I dont have any read on these teams except that it seems Marshall has been improving

I just don't see who is going to rally PSU from the dead to actually give a crap about any of the rest of these games they have. Iowa will be fired up for the opportunity.  You guys are right that anyone is an upgrade from Drew Allar, and there should be a slight new coach bump, but man the expectations were too high.  

I find it strange that Texas St has lost 3 of their last 4 games with the 1 win being vs non major Nicholls st.

Marshall has won their last 3 of 4 games, the one loss only by 3 pts to the ragin cajuns. And they just beat ODU 48-24.

What are the books doing making Texas st 3 pt road favs? Looking at it now, line is down to 2.5

@undermysac

 Hmm that is interesting. Couple of teams I really dont know much about. Its hard to follow these small schools

@undermysac

 A home dog win vs a team struggling yet they don’t respect Marshall enough to make them a favorite.  Home dog wins are flukes because they are not the projected better team.  To do that home dog win thing again would be a miss by the lines maker.  They see something in Texas St. 

Marshall schedule so far has not been impressive that why they were +14 last week at home.

Texas St has given up 35, 4th Q points the last 2 games.  They had A 28-7 first quarter lead last game and lost. They lost the last 2 games as -7 and -14 point favorites.  2 teams going in different directions and yet the line didn’t switch. 

I don’t trust back to back home dogs after a big win, I trust a little bit favorites after 2 real bad favorite failures.  I’m a dog guy so I have better games in mind but I’m not touching Marshall even as sound a spread team they have been recently.