LOU +13.5
Louis been a chalk in every game with not much success. Thats a strong dog situation. Last week a -7 favorites against upcomer (ranked) Virg. They have scored 27 points in all games and against a top 10 opponent on the road thats important.
Miami: 4-0 ATS vs FBS foes this season and thru my eyes some decent lines so far. Home dog to Notre dame -8 to the Gators and -17 to S. Florida. S Florida is having a season , I get that but they were shown what a top team like Miami can do. I have Louisville much stronger than S.Florida. Just look at S. Florida's lines for confirmation @ Florida +18 for example. Louisville +13.5 and probably +14 or more is valuable to me.
One thing I dont care for is the respect of the contest players have them at 60%. Maimi has been covering and Louisville not so much. I feel a few extra points have been added here
Miss St +11
I don’t like this team at +11 because they have a terrible history in the road the last few seasons They need to show me they are filling in a line gap because on the road their ATS success are at numbers way higher than this.
in this line category they only are 1-5 SU and ATs because all their other dog spreads have been higher than +24. Florida is offensively challenged but a good defense and Florida has played a small handful of highly ranked teams. I think this game is a possible hidden gem of a favorite.
Floridas last 4 vs
Tex AM
LSU
Texas
Miami
this makes Florida appear worse.
The possible bad news is confidence levels and that gauntlet of a schedule can have an effect on mental and physical health. Might take at least a quarter to gain their mentality.
Florida and history of teams that are home favorites after playing the last 4 games against ranked opponents
16-2 SU that leaves Ms St 10 points to get the over if they don’t win. Florida being battle tested either they play desperate for a win or just fall apart. Their D might be the key to this game.
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