Week 7 Lines Discussion

Had 2 very solid weeks in a row now. Been crushing moneyline dogs. Week 5 we had Virginia and Virginia Tech, both over +200. This week we had Wake and UF both over +200 and also hit UK +21.5 w the garbage time tuddy to cover by the hook. Importance of getting the best number. 

Maybe this is a good sign, not much is looking great. Weeks 2-4 had a ton of good looking plays and we sucked. Weeks 5 and 6 a lot less and we crushed it. Onto the games. I would love some discussion here, agree/disagree/anything. 

Only ones I've bet so far are RUT +10.5 and VT +15.5

RUTG +10.5 - Washington with long travel on a short week and after getting physically beaten up by OSU then barely squeaking out a win vs MD. From Washington to MD, and back to Washington to play on a Friday. Rutgers coming off a bye after losing 2 close Big 10 games. 

UCLA +8.5 - Should Sparty really be laying this many? I know UCLA just played the game of their season, but are they that much worse than MSU?

MD +6.5 - 2nd home game in a row, just lost a close one to Washington. Now Nebraska comes in laying the same amount of points. I just dont believe in Nebraska and Maryland is playing well.

Virginia Tech +15.5 - Who is Georgia Tech to be laying this kind of number to VT? Its a hard fought ACC battle. VT is 2-4 but its been a difficult schedule playing SC, VAN, ODU, NCST, and Wake and they are battle tested. GT is off bye but beating sloppy Clemson and barely sneaking bye Wake doesnt impress me to lay over 2 TDs. VT should be ready to cover and maybe win outright. 

BC +14.5 - Are we still laying over 2 TDs w Clemson? 

USC -2.5 - Number seems a bit light, is it just due to Michigans ranking love?

Arizona +1.5 - If BYU wasnt ranked would they still be the favorite in this game? I kinda like what Arizona is doing. 

I like most of those plays. 
BOL

Were you able to watch the wash/Mary game?

UCLA +8.5 - Should Sparty really be laying this many? I know UCLA just played the game of their season, but are they that much worse than MSU?

This game and clemson game feel like biggest overreaction and great situational spots

Line is prbly michigan state -13 last week and clemson -6

Nw was up 17-7 on these guys until garbage time little blondie really make that much of a difference ?

I bet they spy the qb this week. 

@Indydog

 I did not unfortunately. What can you tell me?

So you think opposite of what I said, MSU is the play and line should be higher. You arent buying that UCLA has gotten better at all?

I was thinking the Clemson line would be more like 10 or 10.5

nothing unfortunately, was just curious because you have leans on both teams this weekend and i was just wondering if you were able to watch the game.  best of luck.

(i agree with both of your leans btw)

how about S Miss on the road laying 3 at Ga southern, I mean Ga Southerns defense is horrible giving up 541 yds a game, and 306 rushing yards, but Ga southern is at home and both were able to beat Jacksonville state   its always hard to not go against a team with such a bad defense, I am already on Maryland, and I grabbed Indiana +8 at Oregon, and grabbed Temple +8.5  and I like Texas AM -7 over Florida, I think Texas AM has a very good defense, I also think Iowa st could be a play this week, they really played well 2nd half last week ,and Oklahoma maybe vs Texas, I do not like VT last week wake was an easy play, no way VT should have been giving 6 or 6.5 that was all because they won the game before after coaches firing, I do like Wake again   lots to look into    I too do the write ups have for  years, college hoops even more  , in college no losing weeks so far  <knocking on wood>  

gl brother

@Indydog

 Yea its just from watching Washington against OSU and following along w the boxscores of the last couple games by each team. 

I may have to go ahead and make Maryland a play. I know about GASO horrible defense but just not a game I'm really interested in. I would think TAMU should get the cover vs UF. Gators are tough defensively but the coaching is just so bad and TAMU offense is much better than Texas. Even up 2 TDs w 5 mins left Napier was close to blowing it. We cashed the spread and ml tickets but it was brutal, they were snapping the ball consistently w tons of time remaining and terrible coaching decisions. That game shouldve been well over and instead Texas still had over a minute left to tie it. 

VT is just so much better as a dog than a fave. All of these ACC matchups tend to see the dog step up every year and play a close game. GT vs Clemson, Wake vs GT, VT vs NCST, UVA/LOU, UVA vs FSU, just always close games. I dont think GT is that good to lay over 2 TDs in an ACC battle like that. 

@Yanasaur

 Id take sparty and lean bc 

I've gotta say, the bc performance in that michigan state game might of been a setup. Looked like the Brady Patriots offense with all these passes to the back out of the backfield. Surgical. Boston college looked like they had a potent offense .

I would take the dog if sparty was plus 14 to clemson all day. 

But maybe both suck. Bc looks SOFT

.

Same exact thoughts on Rutgers being within 2 scores of Washington who might be worn out but will have the crowd to lift them up

+10.5 is nice with a Rutgers team with a solid offense/QB 

I can see a UCLA letdown.

Michigan St. 30-10

I went ahead and added:

MD +6.5 (+100) and ml +225

USC -2.5 - MICH is not that impressive. If USC beats Illinois I think this line is definitely higher. The Illinois game was just a bad spot for USC. Going east is always bad for them, but you also had Illinois fresh off a complete embarrassment vs Indiana so you got an extra inspired effort from them. Now USC is off the Illinois loss, plus a bye, I think they get the job done here. 

And finally, 2 other games that are intriguing but I have not bet yet:

PUR +8.5 - This is a pretty big number for MINN to be laying. I watched the Purdue/ILL game and I like what I saw from Purdue. They were moving the ball effectively and playing inspired defense. They made some bad mental mistakes at key points that caused them to fall behind too far and snowballed. Coming off of that I think they have some momentum to build on if they limit the mental errors and Minnesota coming off a beatdown at OSU may not be the best spot for them. 

ARIZONA ml - I havent seen much of Zona or BYU except Zona vs KSU. They impressed me the way they controlled both lines of scrimmage in that game and Fifita looked great too. Other than that I dont have much, but this game is sticking out to me. 

Added:

Purdue +7.5 -105 and ml +250 - Unfortunately missed the 8.5 number but thats alright 

I went to sleep at halftime feeling good about Rutgers. Ouch... I see Demond Williams went supernova. I like Washington a lot, but the spot was right for Rutgers. Must have been a hell of a halftime speech 

I dont know what happened w Rutgers yesterday, 1st half was great then total destruction. 

But we hit by the hook on Va Tech, hit Maryland, and we have Purdue looking good and USC looking good

Oh and we hit UCLA too. So 4-1 pending Purdue and USC. I did play UCLA ml too so its been a nice day even though we didnt get the MD moneyline