i took last week of posting final list of plays, ill make some notes here for my references. I felt more at peace not posying and more focused. maybe because i was zoned in and having a lot of success
a lot of the games i played covered in the 4th Q so i was able to get better lines
Charlotte
TCU
BAMA
W, VIRG
FSU
TEXAS AM
KENTKY
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
i took last week of posting final list of plays, ill make some notes here for my references. I felt more at peace not posying and more focused. maybe because i was zoned in and having a lot of success
a lot of the games i played covered in the 4th Q so i was able to get better lines
season > 2001 and ats streak < -1 and -18 > p:ats margin and D and 12 > week > 3 and month < 11 and p:margin < -33 and p:line < 10 and o:streak < 3 and site = away
season > 2001 and ats streak < -1 and -18 > p:ats margin and D and 12 > week > 3 and month < 11 and p:margin < -33 and p:line < 10 and o:streak < 3 and site = away
1) I have both eyes on Notre Dame because they are exceeding most teams expectations. The last team to do this was Clemson in their last Championship season. Since then Clemson has been 50/50 ATS or slightly less. Notre Dame is finally get the lines makers respect and some what inflated lines.
When I say inflated lines thats a question because they are still barely making or missing the spreads when their lines creep to -21 or more. I had Notre Dame vs Arkansas because that was a terrific situation only laying -4 and not playing a ranked team.
2) my approach is mostly in game. If one watches thee big spreads a higher line most often can be had in game. A lot of the higher spreads can come with a higher juice so one needs to be patient and not climb on with bad juice.
3) Recently Notre Dame is doing very well vs ACC opponents, but within these seasons some of these ACC opponents have had rough seasons.
4) at this point I am seeing inconsistent Notre dame covers but they are still hovering their lines and if not playing highly ranked teams they still execute or come very close their ATS mark. They are just too good against weaker teams because they play a sound game and limit big mistakes.
5) What I am looking for is A decent ATS loss and A like <-14 or higher. Once they lose ATS lets ride the streak down. The other key is playing against a cold ATS team. In most cases this should add a few extra points to the line. Also their opponent also should not be exceeding their previous team totals. I dont like a dog that is getting attention. I think under 30 points previously are great situations. 21 to 30 point previous outputs are mundane but exceeding 30 points against good teams are not strong ATS situations.
6) Situationally this is the key: When Notre dame plays an ACC team laying -15 or higher (since and all games from and beyond the season 2000) if the ACC team scores 14+ and including 14 points Notre Dame is 2-13 ATS in these situations.
7) Inconclusion Notre dame shows weakness ATS their opponent is decent but not exceeding expectations and maybe Notre Dame's opponent were a favorite in their previous game and missed their point spread by at least 7 points. favorite. We need big lines and we need the opponent to score 14+ points. Obviously we have to also have Notre Dame not score 50+, Occasionally NOTD does that (2024 vs FL ST, 2023 VS PITT, 2021 GEOR TCH)
NCST played (destroyed) Campbell last week so I question this line pregame. This might be a fairly lined game so At the moment I wont bet this dog pregame. There is an in game opportunity here but I need more info.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
1) I have both eyes on Notre Dame because they are exceeding most teams expectations. The last team to do this was Clemson in their last Championship season. Since then Clemson has been 50/50 ATS or slightly less. Notre Dame is finally get the lines makers respect and some what inflated lines.
When I say inflated lines thats a question because they are still barely making or missing the spreads when their lines creep to -21 or more. I had Notre Dame vs Arkansas because that was a terrific situation only laying -4 and not playing a ranked team.
2) my approach is mostly in game. If one watches thee big spreads a higher line most often can be had in game. A lot of the higher spreads can come with a higher juice so one needs to be patient and not climb on with bad juice.
3) Recently Notre Dame is doing very well vs ACC opponents, but within these seasons some of these ACC opponents have had rough seasons.
4) at this point I am seeing inconsistent Notre dame covers but they are still hovering their lines and if not playing highly ranked teams they still execute or come very close their ATS mark. They are just too good against weaker teams because they play a sound game and limit big mistakes.
5) What I am looking for is A decent ATS loss and A like <-14 or higher. Once they lose ATS lets ride the streak down. The other key is playing against a cold ATS team. In most cases this should add a few extra points to the line. Also their opponent also should not be exceeding their previous team totals. I dont like a dog that is getting attention. I think under 30 points previously are great situations. 21 to 30 point previous outputs are mundane but exceeding 30 points against good teams are not strong ATS situations.
6) Situationally this is the key: When Notre dame plays an ACC team laying -15 or higher (since and all games from and beyond the season 2000) if the ACC team scores 14+ and including 14 points Notre Dame is 2-13 ATS in these situations.
7) Inconclusion Notre dame shows weakness ATS their opponent is decent but not exceeding expectations and maybe Notre Dame's opponent were a favorite in their previous game and missed their point spread by at least 7 points. favorite. We need big lines and we need the opponent to score 14+ points. Obviously we have to also have Notre Dame not score 50+, Occasionally NOTD does that (2024 vs FL ST, 2023 VS PITT, 2021 GEOR TCH)
NCST played (destroyed) Campbell last week so I question this line pregame. This might be a fairly lined game so At the moment I wont bet this dog pregame. There is an in game opportunity here but I need more info.
No way to predict Notre Dame final score but If NC ST gets their 14 points or is nearing the scenario, I then will Ill bite and lock in.
I am not betting pregame because of Mistakes that Notre dame can create. One NC ST turn over and bad defense the score could be 21-0 At the original line that bad but the ingame adjusted line now we have a possible opportunity.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
No way to predict Notre Dame final score but If NC ST gets their 14 points or is nearing the scenario, I then will Ill bite and lock in.
I am not betting pregame because of Mistakes that Notre dame can create. One NC ST turn over and bad defense the score could be 21-0 At the original line that bad but the ingame adjusted line now we have a possible opportunity.
There are no games in these situations Notre dame has not exceeded 59 points that that into consideration.
One must know that back data we are facing and the possibilities that could occur. Last week was Charlotte vs S. Florida in game line got to 53.5
I got 49.5 because i waited for Charlotte to show something. When they did i bet. S Forida typically doesnt win by 50 they could have but the odds were strongly against it from their history.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
There are no games in these situations Notre dame has not exceeded 59 points that that into consideration.
One must know that back data we are facing and the possibilities that could occur. Last week was Charlotte vs S. Florida in game line got to 53.5
I got 49.5 because i waited for Charlotte to show something. When they did i bet. S Forida typically doesnt win by 50 they could have but the odds were strongly against it from their history.
NC ST +24 (currently it’s +23 and no play until it hits +24 because I should be able to possess more than +24 in game. Why do I post it? Because I want to disclose my teams and thoughts)
Hoosiers ML +240 they either win or fail.
Air F +7
Arky +12 Tennessee look ahead + Arky was only + 4 at home to Notre dame. That was a lines maker evaluation and I’m going to be ballsy here and trust that valuation.
UAB +5.5
WiZ +3.5
Tex AM -7
Kansas +14.5
Rice +12.5
all these games are based upon previous lines and previous results and if not that these teams opponents have big games on deck.
Houston FL St and a few alike should not be laying so many
FL St is still in lines makers head about the upset cs Bama. That doesn’t mean they should be -10 this week.
Houston has a good D but they still can struggle offensively. Defense is important as a favorite but so is scoring to climb the line. On the road for them won’t be easy. Obviously Houston has potential though.
Adversity is overwhelming in Penn St but Northwestern should get a pounding.
Florida was a great dog last year but they continue to be respected from that 2024 success. Facing another Top 10 and only +7 is not enough.
Cincy off a big win now tagged -10? that looks false
Texas Tech dominates Houston after whipping up on Utah. Kansas was home to Missouri a few games back and that line was +5.5. Kansas has been a favorite the last 3 games and one of those was to Cincinnati. Kansas can play and their previous lines equate to this line being a lot. Texas Tech was a dog to Utah, that’s evaluating a weakness. Texas Tech played 3 cupcakes and dominated Utah and Houston back to back. 14 seems real steep but I’m taking a chance.
Wisc at home after 2 losses. IOWA with Penn st on deck.
Colorado has a good offensive line and Iowa state has issues. This line is screaming that I’m in danger but I think it’s false.
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
NC ST +24 (currently it’s +23 and no play until it hits +24 because I should be able to possess more than +24 in game. Why do I post it? Because I want to disclose my teams and thoughts)
Hoosiers ML +240 they either win or fail.
Air F +7
Arky +12 Tennessee look ahead + Arky was only + 4 at home to Notre dame. That was a lines maker evaluation and I’m going to be ballsy here and trust that valuation.
UAB +5.5
WiZ +3.5
Tex AM -7
Kansas +14.5
Rice +12.5
all these games are based upon previous lines and previous results and if not that these teams opponents have big games on deck.
Houston FL St and a few alike should not be laying so many
FL St is still in lines makers head about the upset cs Bama. That doesn’t mean they should be -10 this week.
Houston has a good D but they still can struggle offensively. Defense is important as a favorite but so is scoring to climb the line. On the road for them won’t be easy. Obviously Houston has potential though.
Adversity is overwhelming in Penn St but Northwestern should get a pounding.
Florida was a great dog last year but they continue to be respected from that 2024 success. Facing another Top 10 and only +7 is not enough.
Cincy off a big win now tagged -10? that looks false
Texas Tech dominates Houston after whipping up on Utah. Kansas was home to Missouri a few games back and that line was +5.5. Kansas has been a favorite the last 3 games and one of those was to Cincinnati. Kansas can play and their previous lines equate to this line being a lot. Texas Tech was a dog to Utah, that’s evaluating a weakness. Texas Tech played 3 cupcakes and dominated Utah and Houston back to back. 14 seems real steep but I’m taking a chance.
Wisc at home after 2 losses. IOWA with Penn st on deck.
Colorado has a good offensive line and Iowa state has issues. This line is screaming that I’m in danger but I think it’s false.
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