Week 5 Lines Discussion

This proved to be a good exercise last week. They went 4-2. This week looks trickier to me so I'm hoping for some discussion about these lines that are sticking out to my eyes. 

UVA +7.5 - Looks like a nice upset special and I have bet it already with confidence. This is the only game of all these that I have actually bet yet. 

ASU -2.5 - Classic unranked team favorite over ranked team is interesting. Havent bet this though, dont think theres any value here. 

ARK +5.5 - Should ND be laying this to a good Arkansas team? ND is confusing me this year. I thought they had a good defense but they got ripped by TAMU, then they smoke Purdue, but gave up 30 there too. But Arkansas lost a tough one upset on the road. Do they come home focused?

SYR +6.5 - Should Duke be laying 6.5 on the road? Syracuse played tough against Tennessee for most of that game and has now beaten Clemson, who granted are not what they should be but still a good win for Syracuse as a 17 pt dog. They were horrible at home against Uconn though but snuck a cover in OT in a game they shouldve lost outright. Is this a weird team that only plays well on the road? I havent forgotten how sloppy Duke was against Illinois. Have they righted the ship enough to justify this number against a decent team? This one is puzzling.

PITT +3.5 - I thought this number would be more like 6. These Louisville/Pitt matchups always seem to favor the dog also. The low number makes me think Pitt gets the upset. 

WASH +9.5 - Another one where I thought the line would be a little higher. Upset special?

IOWA +7.5 - Indiana is a good team but Iowa seems to have found some offense this year and we know how good their defense is. Weird things happen in Iowa games...

CAL +6.5 - Cal going east, but its a late kick. BC is coming off bye, but I just dont see how BC should be laying this much. 

OKST +20.5 - The Cowboys suck. But they get an extra day, and have they been embarrassed enough yet that we get a quality effort out of pride? Plus I dont trust Baylor to lay 3 TDs on the road, at home, anywhere, to anyone. They are a team that plays well as the dog. Gotta think it will be tough to get up to play OKST on the road after that hard loss against ASU at the final seconds. 

WVU +10.5 - Number seems a little low to me and makes me suspicious. Also have west coast team going east for an early kick. 

MSST +9.5 - Another one that seems a little low. More Cowbell?!

BAMA +2.5 - Is Bama good again? Do people love them again? Why is this 2.5? Because Bama beat up on Wisconsin? Georgia's defense is suspect...but Bama got torched by FSU and Castellano...I dont get this one at all. 

like Arkansas maybe but already bet over 64      already bet BYU-6 at Colorado with write up, and already took Indiana -6 and now its 7.5 so glad I jumped there, you said Iowa has found offense but after last game looks like Indiana has found some defense also, seeing Rutgers score all those points I think Indiana will be able to score also  but I did get the opening line of -6     do favor E Mich +5.5 or 6 at CMU    maybe looking at Oregon +3.5 or 4  favor Tenn and under 10  I did write ups  would love the Virginia upset and with Fla st thinking about Miami FL the next week that helps, would be only reason, fla st much better team   

gl 151

Hey Yann, Angelli the QB for Syracuse is out....they generate a lot of offense with him. I would check the QB report on the backup and in the past, we have seen Cuse put out a dandy backup to pick up where they left off with the offense. 

Look what happened with Texas Tech.... Hammond comes in and scorches Utah and doesn't miss a pass until he had at least 10 completions in a row and TTECH stomped on Utah on their own turf.

 I am starting to shop for some + lines but honestly, my best weeks so far have been looking for the killer side giving points ....it kind of feels like a yo-yo this year figuring out if Vegas is teasing us

GL this week 

Think Pitt has a good chance of winning this one at home. Also like ASU 

Hope the wash stud qb goes off on osu. Live in WA so will be rooting for them 

@Last2thirst

 Yea Angelli being out is definitely not a good thing. I wont be playing that game but it is interesting. 

That is one of the hardest things this year is figuring out where the bookmakers are trying to lure us. Things have changed with the proliferation of betting. You cant just bet dogs and win. I always hated laying points on the road and its something I almost never do, but things have seemed to flip where laying points on the road is often a good play now. Too many people aware of home dogs I imagine and you just aren't getting value like you used to. 

@DynastyOne

@Yanasaur

 Syracuse QB out for the season. They get smoked here. 

UVA

AZST 

NOTRE DAME lost to 2 ranked team and depending on the line with list ATS or game close to losing because their line was too strong. 

At first look I thought fade NOTD again the week but as I see now that don’t drop out of the top 25 yet.  that leave 5.5 points for Arkansas to get their cover. Not enough.  I believe the best bet in that game is under 64.5.  Notre Dame will play their type of game. 

SYR off a huge win and even at home.  I would bet big money on a team after such a big win 

Cowboys line is extra based upon how crappy they have been.  I think they are 0-8 ATS last 8 from last season  extra points here I’ll grab them and hope.  

Nono Alabama I like Georgia.  Georgia was so over lined that year.  This is a reversal to their past failures. 

Duke blowout 

probably gonna roll with the duke bluedevils 

I have added more to UVA +200 ml.

Also going to make OKST a play but will wait and see if we can get 21 or 21.5. 

Probably will also play ASU, but going to wait and see what happens with the line.

Not going to play Syracuse. 

Maybe will play Washington. 

Probably not playing any of the other ones